How long before Compact Diesels are obsolete?

[Phil Timmons]

Electric vehicle success is going to depend largely on solar affordability. I think it has been coming down but haven't done any research to support that notion. I have seen a large solar field just east of me. The panels are on automated pivots that follow the sun. I'm talking several hundred acres as far as the eye can see.

Most of us have some solar panels in use. I have been pleased with my limited use of panels to keep batteries charged.

The problem with solar on equipment that operates during the day is the need for a separate battery bank. The solar panels will need to charge an idle battery bank during the day to then transfer that charge to the batteries that are parked at night

We avoid that with "Grid Tie" where available. The Solar PV is tied the Grid, and the Battery Charger is also tied to the grid. The grid gets the valuable Day Time Peak Use supply from the Solar PV, and then we charge the batteries when it is handy for us. Win-Win for most local grids.

 

[coobie]

Rural Michigan? Grew up there. A smaller or reducing local economy make for difficult budgets. No one wants to invest in a risky or potential shrinking market. In much of the US we use a "Service Life" model. Most components have a 25 to 50 year Service Life. So that means we will replace up to 4% per year (for 25 year life equipment) or down to 2% (for 50 year life equipment) any given year. Add on some growth (again, for growing local economies) of 1 to 2% per year -- and we are replacing or expanding around 5% every year.

So for now, in Texas -- folks just ask about chargers, and we are happy to put in new transformers, lines, etc., as needed. Happy to sell the extra electricity to a new customer. Locally that means the grid is continually renewing all around US. But again, that is an expanding market and economy.

Sort of ironic on the reducing or shrinking Michigan model -- if Michigan had embraced EVs, upfront, the whole region would be leading US. Instead they half-assed the Volt, and then the dealers backstabbed the whole thing.

I see Texas did well this past winter with their electric grid Search Eddie walker post(rural living) on how long his neutral primary line has been laying on the ground UNFIXED..Little food for thought if you think the NEW GREEN deal is the answer you my friend are WRONG..Been in this business for well over 40 years..

 

[Phil Timmons]

I see Texas did well this past winter with their electric grid Search Eddie walker post(rural living) on how long his neutral primary line has been laying on the ground UNFIXED..Little food for thought if you think the NEW GREEN deal is the answer you my friend are WRONG..Been in this business for well over 40 years..

Here is what we (should) have learnted regarding the Texas Snowpocalypse:

1. Good Regulation = Good Results.
2. Bad Regulation = Bad Results.
3. No Regulation (Texas) = Stupid.

but as far as 40 years, you may want to consider that trying to drive forward while looking in the rear-view mirror does not always work the best.

You may (or may not) like some of this. Maybe try the first 10 minutes or so.

Good stuff for opening minds that can still be opened >>>

 

[Phil Timmons]

I see a lot of the discussion on here about batteries, batteries, batteries.

That may not be the full path ahead.

Anyone look this over? Any thoughts?

 

[coobie]

Here is what we (should) have learnted regarding the Texas Snowpocalypse:

1. Good Regulation = Good Results.
2. Bad Regulation = Bad Results.
3. No Regulation (Texas) = Stupid.

but as far as 40 years, you may want to consider that trying to drive forward while looking in the rear-view mirror does not always work the best.

You may (or may not) like some of this. Maybe try the first 10 minutes or so.

Good stuff for opening minds that can still be opened >>>

What is your back ground in the electric gird? Just curious

 

[Phil Timmons]

What is your back ground in the electric gird? Just curious

Worked all three sides on Engineering side -- EPC Contractor, Engineer of Record, and Owner's Rep. -- Technical side -- Texas Master and J-Man.
Did some time as a Site Engineer for the Big Generator -- TXU, and later as a Staff Engineer for them for compliance, and then a bunch of Substation Design and Build since. My preference would some HVDC, but we do not have a lot of that going on.


You were correct -- the Eddie Walker story is out there. I had gotten notices that Oncor (that is our Poles and Wires for the Public Utilities area -- non-Co-op areas) was looking to drag a bunch of Engineers back in for local assignments. My guess is Eddie's area may be "missing" an Engineer?

 

[coobie]

Worked all three sides on Engineering side -- EPC Contractor, Engineer of Record, and Owner's Rep. -- Technical side -- Texas Master and J-Man.
Did some time as a Site Engineer for the Big Generator -- TXU, and later as a Staff Engineer for them for compliance, and then a bunch of Substation Design and Build since. My preference would some HVDC, but we do not have a lot of that going on.


You were correct -- the Eddie Walker story is out there. I had gotten notices that Oncor (that is our Poles and Wires for the Public Utilities area -- non-Co-op areas) was looking to drag a bunch of Engineers back in for local assignments. My guess is Eddie's area may be "missing" an Engineer?

Why do you need a engineer for a downed power line ?? You need a electric lineman to fix it..

 

[Phil Timmons]

Why do you need a engineer for a downed power line ?? You need a electric lineman to fix it..

In a sane world, yes.

But in this case -- to get the work assigned and make sure it happens.

 

[grsthegreat]

Why do you need a engineer for a downed power line ?? You need a electric lineman to fix it..

the reason nothing gets done out in the field is due to the engineers. i was just at a job for a friend of mine getting power to his new house. line crew was there along with the engineer. the engineer is running off of these tangents telling us how we cant run power the way were planning, telling us how to do it the proper way. after 30 minutes of back and forth he leaves. the foreman comes over to us and tells us hell put it in the way we wanted to. there was no problem with that method.

 

[Phil Timmons]

the reason nothing gets done out in the field is due to the engineers. i was just at a job for a friend of mine getting power to his new house. line crew was there along with the engineer. the engineer is running off of these tangents telling us how we cant run power the way were planning, telling us how to do it the proper way. after 30 minutes of back and forth he leaves. the foreman comes over to us and tells us hell put it in the way we wanted to. there was no problem with that method.

hahaha ahhhh. I feel your pain.

Some days, I help cause it.

Anymore, I try to do like the Penguins in the kid's movie Madagascar.

"Smile and Wave, just Smile and Wave."

 

[coobie]

In a sane world, yes.

But in this case -- to get the work assigned and make sure it happens.

Trouble ticket assigned to crew then they do the work.Simple.

 

[Phil Timmons]

So what did you think of that Tony Seba stuff? You check any of it?

Where is your service area? I grew up around the area between Battle Creek and Athens.

Used to farm there.

 

[coobie]

So what did you think of that Tony Seba stuff? You check any of it?

Where is your service area? I grew up around the area between Battle Creek and Athens.

Used to farm there.

Jackson ,Adrain,bronson,south Monroe ..

 

[Phil Timmons]

Jackson ,Adrain,bronson,south Monroe ..

That maps close to the old homelands.

Do you deal with much services to Central Pivot Irrigators? (taking this back a bit towards Tractors and Farming)

 

[Williy]

Phil Timmons what happens when you have 10 or 15 stop signs traveling in town? your 250 watts is a steady speed it takes more juice to get up to speed so it will take a lot more wattage with all the start and stops going on. Then there is the time you want to pass someone and that takes a lot more juice. ​

willy

 

[Williy]

Phil your movie he talks about cell phones a lot but as
you know farmers don't have any where the cell phones
as in the people in the cities what has this got to do with
farm tractors???

willy

 

[Phil Timmons]

Phil Timmons what happens when you have 10 or 15 stop signs traveling in town? your 250 watts is a steady speed it takes more juice to get up to speed so it will take a lot more wattage with all the start and stops going on. Then there is the time you want to pass someone and that takes a lot more juice. ​

willy

These are just working numbers. There is not some magic "always" numbers. You do not really have to over-think this stuff.

Where EVs tend to "drop" mileage, if that is what you are asking? Winter. That is when you use cabin heat. Since the EV portion generates so little heat (unlike an ICE with waste heat for the cabin). For me -- with a Volt, and a combo ICE and EV option --- I just run the ICE for the first 5 miles or so, get the car really warm, defrost the windows, and then switch to EV without heat.

But really, I drive about 80 mph most of the time, and those numbers (250 watt-hours per mile) work out.

As far as stops go, with EVs -- most have re-generative braking. So you take your foot off the gas, and it starts backfeeding the battery, anyway.

 

[Phil Timmons]

Phil your movie he talks about cell phones a lot but as
you know farmers don't have any where the cell phones
as in the people in the cities what has this got to do with
farm tractors???

willy

If you follow through some of Tony Seba's stuff what he is REALLY talking about is Technology Shifts. How things seem to stay the same, the same, the same . . . and suddenly switch.

Shifts in Agriculture follow this, as well. We did Horses. Forever. Then Steam, Then ICEs. Now no other than Amish use horses. This is all just within 100 years.

So Tractors going electric . . . Diesel, then Diesel, then Diesel -- then suddenly Electric. Not saying this is so, but just the way things tend to work. But behind ALL of the Tech Shifts -- they are already going on for YEARS before folks notice. Look at this essay discussion from over 10 years ago -- all about this stuff. I am still working on Design Tests and Releases on this stuff. >>>

VIII.3. The Electric Farm Pt. 3 – Exchange with Phil Timmons

(originally published April 7, 2008) I wanted to alert readers of this blog to an interesting exchange I had a few weeks back with Phil Timmons on my posts on the Electric Farm from last November. …

terraverde.wordpress.com

 

[grsthegreat]

Oh. My beef with electrical engineers hit a head back in 1997 in calif when I was hired on by a contractor I used to work for to remodel a 125 unit hud project damaged by northridge earthquake. Even though I lived in Idaho, the guy wanted me to be site super and he would give me the electrical side.
first meeting with elect engineer they threw this huge set of blueprints at me and I dug down to find electrical. They had us repowering all the buildings. They planned on doing this by sawcutting the he** out of the parking lot and running miles of pipes all over the place. Each building had 12 units and 6 saw cuts. There would be nothing left of the place. Also, each conduit run had maybe 12-20 elbows in the drawings. I pointed out to him that after 4 90s I’d need an exposed j box. He had no idea what I was talking about.

i had to redesign the system myself. I ended up adding soffits in each building to access all units and ran SER cable. I saved the contractor so much money he gave me a complete custom set of kitchen cabinets and appliances as a bonus.

the engineer had charged a heck of a lot of $$ for a plan that would be illegal to install.