Used prices going up, up, up - Tractor Futures!

[IndyJay]

It seems strange to me that everyone wants to blame shortages or higher prices on government.

For example, there are fewer and fewer small used tractors available because real farmers don't buy 40 HP tractors
anymore to use on the farm. Most real farmers used nothing less than 100HP...ask any real farm tractor dealer...not some one who caters only to suburban hobbyists. Look for a 30 year old 40HP tractor....not many around. But lots of 65 year old 40 HP tractors from the time when lots of small farms were still operating. So I guess long ago federal farm policy encouraged consolidation???? So we can blame it on the Govt?.....bit of a stretch in my opinion.

Now do trucks... pickup trucks are scarce and expensive because real truck drivers don't drive anything less than 18 wheels...

 

[Steppenwolfe]

Sometimes floods happen unexpectedly, right under your feet, even while you’re upstairs sleeping, or at work, when you’re not home, too.

View attachment 732294

Gee... that's a shame. Hope they have home owners insurance...

 

[Williy]

I think that buying land so you can have a
tractor is a very good idea. Beats the h*ll
outa driving a tractor around yer house in
the city/town

willy

 

[rodneyn]

Dude, I literally teach economics. Your statements clearly show you don't understand economics. Attempting to regurgitate something you read on the internet will not magically help you understand the words you type. Just stop. Fed policy is only part of the problem. Massive influx of federal dollars into an already smoldering economy has quickened the inflation. The Fed is trying to take a measured approach, but it is like trying to stop the Mississippi with balsa wood. The supply chain issues are just a boil on the backside of an elephant. Those, too are caused, in part, by poor policies. If the supply chain issues were magically fixed tomorrow, the prices of new equipment would not drop.

Inflation today is culmination of labor, raw material shortages and unforeseen pandemic. Polices put in place to offset pandemic put cash in hands stimulating economy that had sufficient warehouse goods for 120 + days. Once inventories dropped manufacturing suffered from raw material and labor shortages igniting inflation. Now add in China who manufactures for the world and holds a lot of raw materials we consume in the US and other countries. Figure in shipping by sea to US and most of the freighters dock in California a port that is already overbooked. Then realize the rail system is booked for fall grain harvest and cannot relieve shipping port. This has been perfect storm to see shortages across the nation. System has constraints. Then add unemployment near 2.9% everybody is back on the job consuming and inflation is forefront. Raising interest rates may have reverse affect leading to unemployment if they are stepped up to fast. We could slip into a recession. Add a unwanted war in Europe it may be longtime before we see normalized supply lines. Shortages may be with us until we secure manufacturing our own goods ie .. (PC chips) again within our own countries. One downside to global economy we are dependent closely upon each other. One falters we all share the pain. Only time and good planning and good polices from Fed will correct the economy, this something that could take 36 months or more. Tighten your belts, service your equipment it might be all you can afford until deflation comes back in 60 months.No quick fix to our issues affecting inflation time and good planning. I have seen bad times before many under 40 have not. You have to ride them out get smart and survive for better times.

 

[Torvy]

Not sure where you heard such things, but inflation is primarily a money supply issue. Those other issues are not necessarily inflationary, though they could exacerbate the problem. You did get the part right that it will be with us for some time. Until people recognize and admit the real problem, they will not take steps to fix it. The distractions of blaming the pandemic or supply chains, etc. is like an alcoholic blaming their disease on an oversupply of glass bottles or foreign beer.

 

[USAFpj]

and as usual-new-equipment buyers are scared away by sticker shock, long delivery times and being told 'you'll never be able to put a wrench to that $250,000 toy for which you just mortgaged the rest of your life'.

Robo, you have nailed my exact mindset. I've been in 'the market' for a new tractor for 5 years now
I am not a flashy guy- I drive a 98 Dodge Ram, wife works as a teacher, and we support 3 college-aged kids, and I tinker with 2 WW2 era vehicles.
But I've also been blessed with a job that consistently brings 6 figures in, after taxes, with an extra trickle of money from rental home, mil retirement, and another part-time civilian job.

In saying that, I have no idea how you guys can afford a $45k+ tractor, plus all the implements. Until those prices come down, I will continue to sweat, cry, and yell at my 57 Ford 841

 

[Torvy]

Robo, you have nailed my exact mindset. I've been in 'the market' for a new tractor for 5 years now
I am not a flashy guy- works as a teacher, and we support 3 college-aged kids

I can relate, to a point...I'm a teacher. Wife is retiring at the end of next month from a 6 figure job. The reason we can even afford to retire is that we told our kids from an early age that college was on them. They are welcome to live with us while in school and we help them with incidentals. The oldest got a full ride and finished his MS in ChemE in 4 years. 2nd one took 5 years, lived at home for yrs. 2-5. She is now an RN/BSN with a rational amount of student loans given her vocation. 3rd one got a large scholarship, but still could not afford the private school he chose. 2 years and 40k in debt, now he is waiting tables and going to CC part-time. The last one got a healthy scholarship to one of our many D1 schools in TX. She starts in the Fall.

Among me and my 3 siblings we have degrees and not one student loan...we all figured out ways to pay.

I think when we stopped having kids work for their advantages, they became complacent and dependent. I hope yours are the exception that proves the rule.

 

[USAFpj]

I think when we stopped having kids work for their advantages, they became complacent and dependent. I hope yours are the exception that proves the rule.

Torvy, only time will tell. My wife has home-schooled all three, and they are very successful students. However, your point is valid concerning complacency and dependent, as if I were to be honest, that affects us all. When I retired from the military, I was content to make $350/day and work hard. I then received $500/day and became lazier. $650/day gave me a sense of entitlement that is hard to shake. More money has increased a false sense of worth, and when I look at my Father, who at the age of 68, still pulls 10hr shifts for 6x week, I shake my head.

My kids are most likely receiving an educational hand out from their parents, but unlike me, they work hard at their studies and seem to understand the gravity of school. Between that and prayer, that is all a parent can do.

-OB

 

[Hay Dude]

I can relate, to a point...I'm a teacher. Wife is retiring at the end of next month from a 6 figure job. The reason we can even afford to retire is that we told our kids from an early age that college was on them. They are welcome to live with us while in school and we help them with incidentals. The oldest got a full ride and finished his MS in ChemE in 4 years. 2nd one took 5 years, lived at home for yrs. 2-5. She is now an RN/BSN with a rational amount of student loans given her vocation. 3rd one got a large scholarship, but still could not afford the private school he chose. 2 years and 40k in debt, now he is waiting tables and going to CC part-time. The last one got a healthy scholarship to one of our many D1 schools in TX. She starts in the Fall.

Among me and my 3 siblings we have degrees and not one student loan...we all figured out ways to pay.

I think when we stopped having kids work for their advantages, they became complacent and dependent. I hope yours are the exception that proves the rule.

If it weren’t for the college scholarships my kids received, they would have to get loans.
We also get the fun of watching them play on the field. I think earning a college scholarship, academic or athletic, is a fantastic lesson for a high school-aged kid that hard work brings amazing rewards.

 

[Blue Mule]

Inflation today is culmination of labor, raw material shortages and unforeseen government reaction to the pandemic.

I fixed this to be more accurate. We've have pandemics before. Many times before. Hell in 1968/69 there was a pandemic that killed millions, and life went on. They even held the Woodstock festival.

Fact is, what we've truly never seen before is the way our government reacted to it. NEVER EVER should leaders totally shut down the economy. Horrible decision. Horrible. That is the very thing that started the chain of events, the spiral toward the ground. If they had allowed the economy to keep flowing, and had focused their health efforts only toward the vulnerable class of people who needed it, we would have never seen things get this bad.

Sure, fuel prices would have still gone sky high because the policies of a political party I won't name always instill fear in the oil markets. But the insane unemployment, supply issues, "free" money being printed like toy money, and resulting inflation that's at it's worst since 1982 would not have happened. I mean, that's just a fact.

So sadly, at the end of the day it ALWAYS goes back to the government. When the U.S. was a free country we were able to avoid issues and stay strong, always. With those days gone this is just how it's going to be....maybe. We're starting to see citizens rebel though, so who knows. The stuff going on in Canada, the January 6, 2021 attack on D.C., etc... people in North America are getting sick of the lies, mandates, cost of living, and tyranny. So who knows how this plays out long term.

Bottom line is, the middle class guys like us always are the ones who pay the price in the end.

 

[gladehound]

This thread got me curious. A used 2012 DS4510HS with 900 hours is the same price on Tractor-house as I paid for my 2013 new.

 

[hornett22]

The change in monetary policy has been in the works (listen to Jerome Powell- FED chair) for a few months now. The amount of QE is getting trimmed back and it looks like rate hikes are coming. None of that is going to solve supply chain issues. Supply for some goods will benefit if rates go high enough to deter purchases. Trucking, warehouse, and chip shortage issues have to be addressed separately.

You're getting your information and expecting a fix from the people who cause the problems. Hilarious.

 

[2manyrocks]

This thread got me curious. A used 2012 DS4510HS with 900 hours is the same price on Tractor-house as I paid for my 2013 new.

My nephew is a GM at a new car dealership. Last year, customers who were trading in one year old cars were getting more in trade than they paid for them new.

When things are this out of whack, one has to wonder how long this can continue.

 

[rScotty]

I fixed this to be more accurate. We've have pandemics before. Many times before. Hell in 1968/69 there was a pandemic that killed millions, and life went on. They even held the Woodstock festival.

I'm not sure what history you have been reading. I had a business in the 1960s, where i met and hosted customers from all over the US.
Several of my workers went to the Woodstock Festival.

The point being that I never heard of a pandemic at that time, much less one that "killed millions". AFAIK, the word hadn't even been invented. People in groups were generally pretty healthy back then. At least we never heard of any health-related concerns from mass gatherings - and we would have.

Check your sources,
rScotty

 

[rScotty]

This thread got me curious. A used 2012 DS4510HS with 900 hours is the same price on Tractor-house as I paid for my 2013 new.

That could either be due to used prices going up or the value of the dollar going down. To know which one it is, the dollars from now and from back then have to be adjusted to have equal purchasing power.

My guess is what you are seeing is probably a decline in the value of the dollar.
rScotty

 

[ruffdog]

You're getting your information and expecting a fix from the people who cause the problems. Hilarious.

No, I'm not "expecting a fix", especially not a simple one like people think they get from a king. Powell was warning congress all the way back into 2019 on the chance of inflation so this was being foreseen. Then a global pandemic hits and is still here. Now war mongers are ramping up too. I surly see nothing "hilarious" in any of it either.

 

[Cahaba Valley Farm]

No, I'm not "expecting a fix", especially not a simple one like people think they get from a king. Powell was warning congress all the way back into 2019 on the chance of inflation so this was being foreseen. Then a global pandemic hits and is still here. Now war mongers are ramping up too. I surly see nothing "hilarious" in any of it either.

Ruff what inspired the profile pic change? I liked the little dog you used to have.

 

[ruffdog]

Ruff what inspired the profile pic change? I liked the little dog you used to have.

Just a change once in a while. The pic was from my flying days.

 

[gladehound]

That could either be due to used prices going up or the value of the dollar going down. To know which one it is, the dollars from now and from back then have to be adjusted to have equal purchasing power.

My guess is what you are seeing is probably a decline in the value of the dollar.
rScotty

You know, they don't calculate inflation like they did in the 70's. If they did, this past year would be around 15% instead of the 8% figure they're using. There has been a ton of inflation since I bought my tractor. I'd guess around 50% using a fair calculation, not the governments.

 

[jyoutz]

Prices for cars and trucks are much higher now. Supply and demand. A dealer that normally has 500 units on hand only has 20-35. That is a lack of SUPPLY so it drives DEMAND up.

Labor and materials are also up.