Miniex price *predictions*

[houska]

I'm great at overthinking things, so please poke holes in my logic.

I thought I was ready to buy a miniex (KX040, Bobcat E42, or similar) this summer, for personal use on my land. I have plenty of use for one, and would prefer using it for a few hours here and there rather than batching everything and renting for a couple of weeks a year. I figured I'd buy new or slightly-used, keep it for a few years, and resell once I'm done.

But prices are up, availability is super low, etc. It feels like slightly-used costs as much as new used to, and disappears in a flash, to people who really need it Right Now.

Meanwhile, interest rates are on their way up, fuel prices are way up, and the economy doesn't look too hot. So I'm figuring it's more reasonable to wait a few years, and meanwhile rent (even if it's a bit annoying). I'm expecting (hoping?) that once the inflationary party is over, supply will catch up (overshoot?) demand on new equipment, and various contractors will be keen to liberate cash by selling used machines, so good deals will be there to be had.

In fact, maybe $ spent on rental now (a few weeks this summer for instance) may well not be $ down the drain, since new and used purchase prices might even go down enough in a year or two to compensate when I do buy.

Old-timers who have been through a couple of economic cycles, is this wishful thinking? Am I naive in figuring equipment prices will ever go down? Or that an economic slowdown will lead to more used machines being available on the market?

 

[Hersheyfarm]

This “cycle” is a little different. So who knows. Going into a downturn wile inventory of things are at record low amounts is odd. A global economy is a bad thing, especially under a potato’s watch. Still I don’t look equipment to go backwards in price unless your somebody that pays msrp.
Bottom line is if you want it and can afford it get it. Always doing the fiscally right thing is a bad way to live. It really is true that your not taking it with you. I enjoy the buying of equipment and trucks. I deal with multiple dealers. Don’t pay msrp. Call/email around for best deals.

Do you want to own one?

 

[laurencen]

over the last few spikes in prices over decades one thing equipment never goes down in price, I look at my first new skidsteer, paid 30 for it in 1995, today its still running like a top, rusty pain everywhere but had a offer of 25 for it this spring, my E32 new 4 years ago given its got little use and 200plus hours will fetch more today than what I paid for it so will prices go back to 2 plus years ago, Im thinking not

 

[Snobdds]

Prices may come down some, but I wouldn't count on a huge decrease.

The destruction in supply chains are keeping prices elevated.

This is such uncharted territory even for seasoned professionals. Nobody knows for sure what the next few years will brings.

 

[Jchonline]

Doubt prices will come down for years. Just get it.

 

[dirttoys]

Crusty old guy, and to make it worse I already have my x

I believe prices will go down, and demand will drop to supply or vise versa.

I won't put this on anyone else but myself: I have stopped all projects that are not immediately needed, and even then they have to have a real financial risk if not completed.
I believe buying at these prices, will perpetuate these prices.

Best,

ed

 

[Rustyiron]

I agree with the OP.
Things are going to crash including customers for this soon to be idle equipment. Business will attempt to retain their people and let patrially or paid for equipment go first.

 

[houska]

Thanks for the feedback, which ably demonstrated both philosophies Joking aside, it IS good to see both opinions are held by others, even if there is no clear consensus.

As it happens, the decision is out of my hands. It turns out no dealer within a reasonable drive of me can get me my preferred new machine before Sept, at any price. Doubtless as a result, reasonable used ones seem to disappear before I even notice them. (One guy told me he posted his ad at dinner time, a guy reached out right away, drove 3 hours to see it early the next morning, and paid for it all before I reached out that very next morning at 10am...)

And yet 2 rental yards can rent more or less the same machine to me for 2 weeks in July/Aug for about 2.5% of the (new) purchase price. So that's what I'll do for now. After I do my most urgent stuff with the rental, I'll revisit the decision. Heck, maybe I'll decide I need to buy a bigger one...

 

[dirttoys]

Thanks for the feedback, which ably demonstrated both philosophies Joking aside, it IS good to see both opinions are held by others, even if there is no clear consensus.

As it happens, the decision is out of my hands. It turns out no dealer within a reasonable drive of me can get me my preferred new machine before Sept, at any price. Doubtless as a result, reasonable used ones seem to disappear before I even notice them. (One guy told me he posted his ad at dinner time, a guy reached out right away, drove 3 hours to see it early the next morning, and paid for it all before I reached out that very next morning at 10am...)

And yet 2 rental yards can rent more or less the same machine to me for 2 weeks in July/Aug for about 2.5% of the (new) purchase price. So that's what I'll do for now. After I do my most urgent stuff with the rental, I'll revisit the decision. Heck, maybe I'll decide I need to buy a bigger one...

Bigger is always better!!

Get all the worst work done with the rental. And remember, if you dare, all the rentals are for sale.

Best,

ed

 

[houska]

Bigger is always better!!

Bigger is always better. Until you're doing roadwork on your logging road, which is sized just right for your 5' wide UTV and 6'-bucket compact tractor....with your bigger, stronger, but 6'5" wide excavator.