Corona Virus #8

[ruffdog]

I guess it depends on your definition of "cure".

Maybe that is why the CDC/FDA is slow on approving these other "cures".

 

[txdon]

or

Investigating the impact of influenza on excess mortality in all ages in Italy during recent seasons (213/14?16/17 seasons) - ScienceDirect

Interesting
from the link above
"During the study period, an average of 5,290,000 (range 4,542,000?,299,000) ILI cases were estimated in Italy, corresponding to a cumulative average incidence of 9% (range 8%?1%) in the Italian population. The highest estimated incidence was observed in children younger than 5 years (average of 23%, range 21%?6%) and in adolescents (average of 15%, range 12%?8%). The 2014/15 season showed the highest estimated number of cases, with a total of 6,300,000 ILI cases. The lowest number of cases was observed in the 2013/14 season, with 4,540,000 ILI estimated cases (Table 2)."

 

[CalG]

Interesting
from the link above
"During the study period, an average of 5,290,000 (range 4,542,000?,299,000) ILI cases were estimated in Italy, corresponding to a cumulative average incidence of 9% (range 8%?1%) in the Italian population. The highest estimated incidence was observed in children younger than 5 years (average of 23%, range 21%?6%) and in adolescents (average of 15%, range 12%?8%). The 2014/15 season showed the highest estimated number of cases, with a total of 6,300,000 ILI cases. The lowest number of cases was observed in the 2013/14 season, with 4,540,000 ILI estimated cases (Table 2)."

It stands to reason that any parent would seek medical care for an ill child. Presenting at a medical treatment center would register in the statistics and so push up the "estimated incidence" number.

 

[dragoneggs]

Do you ever wonder why people in various Asian countries seem more inclined to be wearing masks ?

Arguably to be sure, they simply have more (recent) experience in dealing with epidemics ... particularly in densely packed population centers.

China's recent history of deadly epidemics

I visit many Asian countries multiple times a year for business. Every country and culture is different and I continue to learn the differences and nuances. I have observed that masks are most common in Japan. On public transit and moving about in crowded business districts they seem to be the most prevalent.

In talking with a some of my friends and associates, the prevailing story is a bit different depending on the country. For instance, in Japan the individual is concerned about the well being of the masses. In China, air pollution seems to be the driver.

I also post this 2014 article on a perspective of history of masks in Asian culture.

A quick history of why Asians wear surgical masks in public — Quartz

 

[rswyan]

I visit many Asian countries multiple times a year for business. Every country and culture is different and I continue to learn the differences and nuances. I have observed that masks are most common in Japan. On public transit and moving about in crowded business districts they seem to be the most prevalent.

In talking with a some of my friends and associates, the prevailing story is a bit different depending on the country. For instance, in Japan the individual is concerned about the well being of the masses. In China, air pollution seems to be the driver.

I also post this 2014 article on a perspective of history of masks in Asian culture.

A quick history of why Asians wear surgical masks in public — Quartz

Thanks ... that adds some additional data as to what drives it.

 

[locknut]

Thanks ... that adds some additional data as to what drives it.

This from your neck of the woods. Looks interesting. Seems odd to me that they would pull an OTC product off the market and pidgeonhole it to do a long term clinical study.

Coronavirus: Halo oral spray to be tested for infection prevention

 

[rswyan]

This from your neck of the woods. Looks interesting.

It does.

Seems odd to me that they would pull an OTC product off the market and pidgeonhole it to do a long term clinical study.

I can think of a few reasons why they might want to:

1. Limited supply currently, plus the unknown factor of how quickly they can ramp up production should it prove out as being effective.

2. A run on the product by the general public due to publicity, depriving those who really need it (need being defined as level of risk of being exposed or infected to corona virus and contracting COVID-19) as a consequence of their jobs ... IOW: frontline healthcare workers dealing with COVID-19 patients.

3. Legal liability issues.

BTW - I saw nothing in the article indicating a "long term clinical study" ... in fact, it sounded like it was being fast-tracked.

 

[the old grind]

My CPL is up for renewal this year by the 1st of next month. I'd like to think the county courthouse will be open by then and I can even go there.

btw, is parsing numbers from overseas to find a preventative or a cure for the infected? The spirit is there.

 

[IslandTractor]

This from your neck of the woods. Looks interesting. Seems odd to me that they would pull an OTC product off the market and pidgeonhole it to do a long term clinical study.

Coronavirus: Halo oral spray to be tested for infection prevention

Glad they are doing a controlled trial but I have serious doubts about the possible effectiveness. It is designed to coat the back of the throat where it might work for a while but coronavirus can also be inhaled directly into the lower respiratory tract bypassing the area where this Halo stuff is supposed to be active. This isn't a new drug by the way, it is a fairly common ingredient of mouthwash.

 

[pennwalk]

Posted outside the grocery store in Castine Maine
If you are coming to Castine from away and have not done a 14 day quarantine do not enter. For the safety of our community and staff. Please call us and we will get you anything you need and bring it to you
We vacation in the area. There is always some tension between the desire not to have the area clogged up with out of towners and the desire to have more business. It may be that this summer some of these beautiful places will see how they do without summer folk. I don't think the area is well equipped to deal with a lot of sick people. It is not a rich area so they may be hard hit economically.

Chris

 

[Citydude]

Wyoming’s governor has put a 14 day quarantine request for anyone entering the state for non work related travel through April.

We have 187 cases in Wyoming. None reported to be hospitalized at this time.

 

[ruffdog]

I'm seeing boats/campers/RVs on the road earlier than normal. Maybe people are coming up to their vacation spots because the kids are out of school. Will they do a 14 day quarantine? I doubt it.

 

[Citydude]

I'm seeing boats/campers/RVs on the road earlier than normal. Maybe people are coming up to their vacation spots because the kids are out of school. Will they do a 14 day quarantine? I doubt it.

If they are headed to Wyoming, they need snowmobiles.

 

[aczlan]

New York Times reports Italy is thinking of testing for antibodies people have after they have recovered from covid 19 and then letting them go back to work. I wonder if the U.S. could do that or if it would be beyond our capacity?

Chris

It would be interesting to see (once this is all said and done) a randomized trial to see how many people had it and didn't realize it.

We don’t yet have an antibody test. Probably a month or so away assuming relatively lax FDA standards.

Also, typically you’d want to know that antibody is present at a high enough level (titer) to be protective. It will take some time to determine what titer is actually protective. Of course a decision could be made that just accepts any detectable level as adequate in this setting to help get the economy moving. Herd immunity doesn’t require that everyone has antibody levels that are “certifiably” protective.

Supposedly the Mount Sinai hospital has antibody test: Researchers develop test for coronavirus antibodies

I posted this on another forum, never got a satisfactory answer. This makes no sense to me. Wuhan is where it started and 11,000,000+ people are living there closer proximity than in NYC.



Curious why the death rates are so high in Italy and Spain?!?

After all, the virus STARTED in Wuhan, China. Wuhan's population is 11 million alone! China's population is 1.4 billion!!!

Spain's population is 46.7 million and yet the death rate (so far!) in Spain is three times that of China!

The virus has had more time to spread at the source (China) before migrating to Europe. Any ideas why this is?View attachment 649202

The Chinese are fudging their numbers.

Another reason they wear masks is the air pollution is much higher in China than here.

Which air pollution will cause your lungs to be working harder to start with and make you more susceptible to pneumonia and make the effects of Covid19 significantly worse...

 

[Fuddy1952]

I'm seeing boats/campers/RVs on the road earlier than normal. Maybe people are coming up to their vacation spots because the kids are out of school. Will they do a 14 day quarantine? I doubt it.

There's no rationale with travel in my opinion. I assume you can travel in a camper, but our friends/neighbors own a second home one state away they are not allowed to go to since it's not their primary residence, yet they still pay taxes, insurance and utilities on an empty house.

 

[Fuddy1952]

It would be interesting to see (once this is all said and done) a randomized trial to see how many people had it and didn't realize it.



Supposedly the Mount Sinai hospital has antibody test: Researchers develop test for coronavirus antibodies



The Chinese are fudging their numbers.




Which air pollution will cause your lungs to be working harder to start with and make you more susceptible to pneumonia and make the effects of Covid19 significantly worse...

"The Chinese are fudging their numbers."
What are actual numbers?

 

[MossRoad]

Went to a couple stores yesterday shopping for my wife's parents. Dad's got dementia and mom is finally understanding we shouldn't be going to the store so often. So, when we get a grocery list from her, and it says 1 dozen eggs, I get her 2 dozen. 1 gallon of milk, I get her 2. She can freeze one. 5 bags of cookies (dad likes cookies!), I got her 10. Just doubling everything that won't spoil so I don't have to go to the store as often.

Noticed Walmart had the doors on the home side closed and only the grocery side doors open. They had a line of carts between the in and out doors that came out to the edge of the sidewalk, then turned towards the side of the store and extended all the way to the shopping cart storage doors. So to get into the store, you had to walk 100' to the right, then come back down inside the line off carts back to the IN door. When entering, they had one person on the IN side checking off a clipboard. On the OUT side they had another person checking off a clip board. I asked what they were doing? Keeping track of how many people are in the store. Interesting.

The store seemed a bit empty, and uncluttered. The center isles weren't packed with skids like they usually were. Everyone, both employees and customers, were very polite and keeping their distance from everyone else. Kinda nice, actually.

 

[MossRoad]

"The Chinese are fudging their numbers."
What are actual numbers?

1.38 billion people and only 3333 officially dead.

I think I had 3333 as a lucky number in a fortune cookie once.

 

[/pine]

If they are headed to Wyoming, they need snowmobiles.

Yeah I hear there are a lot of snowflakes out there...!

 

[aczlan]

1.38 billion people and only 3333 officially dead.

I think I had 3333 as a lucky number in a fortune cookie once.

Exactly, and zero new cases for days on end is extremely suspicious IMO.
On the other side as was said, you have the Italians who had 500 people died this month last year in a particular province and 4500 this year.
They reported 2000 of the ones this year as being due to Coronavirus, why did the other 2000 extra people die vs last year?

Aaron Z