Thoughts on mega wind and solar projects

[Highlandr]

Why not put solar panels atop huge corporate centers, Walmarts, schools, big city buildings, airports, etc.

At my former employer there was a LOT of real estate under roof. When I suggested, "Put solar panels up there. Win, win!" I was told it had been looked into, but the buildings had not been built with solar panels in mind, so they would not support it.

New buildings were planned and built. When I questioned why they were not being built "with solar panels in mind". I was told 3x the cost, and that didn't include the solar.

 

[dodge man]

Time will tell on some projects. Here is one where the only people that made out on the project were the moronic engineers who designed and worked on this project. Now the taxpayers and the utility customers are left paying for it. Killing more birds than wind, displaced the native wildlife, destroyed the land, and never lived up to projections, but hey, it's green energy.

Obama-backed $2.2B green energy 'boondoggle' leaves taxpayers on the hook

We flew over that solar steam generator farm a few years ago year ago. It looks cool from the air but it also looks like a boondoggle.

 

[Phil Timmons]

At my former employer there was a LOT of real estate under roof. When I suggested, "Put solar panels up there. Win, win!" I was told it had been looked into, but the buildings had not been built with solar panels in mind, so they would not support it.

New buildings were planned and built. When I questioned why they were not being built "with solar panels in mind". I was told 3x the cost, and that didn't include the solar.

Yeah, US is going to die from the Dumb.

US tends to have the business folks thinking they are making engineering decisions, and do not even understand how dumb they are. Part of the infection and rise of the MBA.

I am not the biggest fan for rooftop in the US, but the math is simple.

Roof Loads are a mix of:
+ Dead Load (the structure, roofing material -- the hardware)
+ Live Load (we the humans when up there)
+ Wind Load
+ Snow Load and other consideration depending location and codes.

Solar PV Panels and all the mounting hardware are part of the Dead Load. Works out to around 5 pounds per square foot or less.

There may be some Wind Load consideration with Solar -- but they are generally more of an "uplift" consideration.

Snow is the same with or without Solar PV.

So that leaves the Live Load. Generally allowed as 20 pounds per square foot. Turns you cannot walk on Solar PV (duh, huh?) so generally that works out to a Net REDUCTION of [ 20 pounds (Live) - 5 pounds (Solar, Dead) = NEGATIVE 15 Pounds.

I am NOT Civil nor Structural, but rather EE (Electrical), but deal with this all the time for local cities and allied Engineers. Had a Structural PE visit on a job site a week or two ago -- doing a Review Letter for Solar PV on a barn roof.

He walked over and picked a Solar PV panel we had stacked there (about 50 pounds, each, and 20 square feet - 2.5 pounds per square foot) -- he looked surprised and said -- "these are really light! Had no idea. What do you even need the letter for?" I said -- local code compliance. Just compliance.

 

[Hay Dude]

Yeah, US is going to die from the Dumb.

US tends to have the business folks thinking they are making engineering decisions, and do not even understand how dumb they are. Part of the infection and rise of the MBA.

I am not the biggest fan for rooftop in the US, but the math is simple.

Roof Loads are a mix of:
+ Dead Load (the structure, roofing material -- the hardware)
+ Live Load (we the humans when up there)
+ Wind Load
+ Snow Load and other consideration depending location and codes.

Solar PV Panels and all the mounting hardware are part of the Dead Load. Works out to around 5 pounds per square foot or less.

There may be some Wind Load consideration with Solar -- but they are generally more of an "uplift" consideration.

Snow is the same with or without Solar PV.

So that leaves the Live Load. Generally allowed as 20 pounds per square foot. Turns you cannot walk on Solar PV (duh, huh?) so generally that works out to a Net REDUCTION of [ 20 pounds (Live) - 5 pounds (Solar, Dead) = NEGATIVE 15 Pounds.

I am NOT Civil nor Structural, but rather EE (Electrical), but deal with this all the time for local cities and allied Engineers. Had a Structural PE visit on a job site a week or two ago -- doing a Review Letter for Solar PV on a barn roof.

He walked over and picked a Solar PV panel we had stacked there (about 50 pounds, each, and 20 square feet - 2.5 pounds per square foot) -- he looked surprised and said -- "these are really light! Had no idea. What do you even need the letter for?" I said -- local code compliance. Just compliance.

No.
If the US is going to die, it is going to die from Godlessness.

 

[Phil Timmons]

Dang guys, its not solar Or oil, Or coal. Even if the US could generate 100% of its electric by solar, we would still Need oil f9r thousands of other things. Even if every car, truck, ship, and train was electric, fertilizer, plastics, explosives, and everything else needs oil too.

Its almost like the two sides are religiously anti solar and pro solar. It works, its not the solution to everything, not good or evil; it just is, like everything else.

People tend to confuse the "Energy" use of Oil and Gas (which is most, but rather lossy) -- over 80% -- with the MATERIALS use of Oil and Gas (things like Plastics, Chemicals, Asphalt, Lubricants, on and on).

Just move on from Energy Use of Oil -- or most of it -- and many of the problems all just go away.

 

[paulsharvey]

Yeah, US is going to die from the Dumb.

US tends to have the business folks thinking they are making engineering decisions, and do not even understand how dumb they are. Part of the infection and rise of the MBA.

I am not the biggest fan for rooftop in the US, but the math is simple.

Roof Loads are a mix of:
+ Dead Load (the structure, roofing material -- the hardware)
+ Live Load (we the humans when up there)
+ Wind Load
+ Snow Load and other consideration depending location and codes.

Solar PV Panels and all the mounting hardware are part of the Dead Load. Works out to around 5 pounds per square foot or less.

There may be some Wind Load consideration with Solar -- but they are generally more of an "uplift" consideration.

Snow is the same with or without Solar PV.

So that leaves the Live Load. Generally allowed as 20 pounds per square foot. Turns you cannot walk on Solar PV (duh, huh?) so generally that works out to a Net REDUCTION of [ 20 pounds (Live) - 5 pounds (Solar, Dead) = NEGATIVE 15 Pounds.

I am NOT Civil nor Structural, but rather EE (Electrical), but deal with this all the time for local cities and allied Engineers. Had a Structural PE visit on a job site a week or two ago -- doing a Review Letter for Solar PV on a barn roof.

He walked over and picked a Solar PV panel we had stacked there (about 50 pounds, each, and 20 square feet - 2.5 pounds per square foot) -- he looked surprised and said -- "these are really light! Had no idea. What do you even need the letter for?" I said -- local code compliance. Just compliance.

First, let's cover, roof topic is seperate than generation farms. I just dont see the day the FPL leases 20,000 sq ft for generation. It doesnt make it bad, it makes it a seperate thing then generation.

Second, for roof top, the future of that is in combo products. Where the roofing materials are the panel. If a roof install is $50,000, for just a roof material (and labor), and then solar is another $50,000, and a totally seperate, additional product, that also voids warranty on the roof; its a non-starter. Where it gets intresting is when its a $75,000 roofing product that generates electric. Its built into the dead loads, wind loads, ect. You dont void warranty cause the tile is the solar. We are working that way, slowly.

Even on a home scale; new shingles on a 2500 square ft home, installed, about $12-16k, every 25 years. If they have a better life span, and a solar tile install was $25k; it starts being pretty attractive.

 

[paulsharvey]

I would like to thing in 10 years, we get to the point that solar roof tile (and new or similar) become a no-brainer, a bit more expensive then shingles, longer life, and off set maybe 25-50% of your power bill, in summer. I dont mean 100% solar, i dont mean battery systems, just offsetting usage.

That doesnt displace oil, coal, nuclear, or solar farms though.

 

[Hay Dude]

Why not study/implement the harnessing of the power of the sun that heats asphalt parking lots?

 

[Phil Timmons]

No.
If the US is going to die, it is going to die from Godlessness.

Suppose it could be viewed that way.

In practice it comes down to fatal combination of Arrogance and Ignorance.

The Arrogance makes US think US is better, smarter, faster, etc., than US are.

And then the Ignorance that follows does not allow US to even see how dumb US are.

Not exactly the best practices of Proverbs nor the Beatitudes, in general.

 

[edgarrian]

Yeah, like the ones for oil.

Really??? At some point most of you need to get on board with each industry shouldn't be getting as much subsidies as they do. For god sakes. Of course oil shouldn't be getting what it does.

Here is why solar and wind and the subsidy is trash. B/c it sits on farmland that gets the biggest subsidy kick back of any industry. Its well documented that ag is subsidized by a lot. Just look at property values in your own county and you will see how much less farm ground is compared to yours. Thats just the tip of the iceberg.

For the record i think most of us dont think these industries need as much subsidy money as they get but we also live in a country that avoids a recession at all costs. QE is alive and well here since the great recession. Its why were only nearly 40 trillion in debt

 

[edgarrian]

IF the US would stop ALL Energy Market and EV v. ICE manipulations -- including Oil, Nukes, Coal, Gas, Wind, Hydro, and now Solar PV -- US would already be running near the top with China and have more much more Solar PV and EVs, already.

Presently Solar PV is paying more taxes than any other. US Solar PV is paying a 50% Punitive Tariff (Biden, not Trump) and still out-running the rest. Meanwhile, Oil is paying 0% Tariff. US Oil, Coal and Nukes have tended to be MASSIVE US Freeloaders. And low-cost EVs are paying a 100% Punitive Tariffs.

Meanwhile, your Fun (not fact) FUD. What China is doing is massive REPLACEMENT of Old (Very Dirty) Coal Plants, with new, relatively clean(er) plants. Overall Coal use in China has been near flat for the last 10+ years. While "run-time" (aka Capacity Factor) has dropped from 70% to around 50%.

At the same time, China is leading the World in both Renewable Manufacturing AND Install. The plan ahead is to just let the Coal drop down ahead, and have the (then old, now new) plants just sit back as stand-by.

Quick Summary:
China = Smart.
US = not so much.

Backgrounder of what is going on THIS Decade >>>

Analysis: Coal power drops in China and India for first time in 52 years after clean-energy records - Carbon Brief

Coal power generation fell in both China and India in 2025, after each nation added record amounts of clean energy

www.carbonbrief.org

China didnt build that many coal plants to then not use. China isn't exactly known for honest reporting

 

[hoozie]

And because you should never trust memes on their face, here's the study: https://www.anl.gov/article/insect-...-restored-habitats-of-solar-energy-facilities

Radware Bot Manager Captcha

I've also wondered how much pushback there would be against large solar installs if they would/could incentivize locals by offering free/reduced power for the lifetime of owning their home. Live with a mile, you get free power. 2 miles, 80%, etc.

 

[Phil Timmons]

First, let's cover, roof topic is seperate than generation farms. I just dont see the day the FPL leases 20,000 sq ft for generation. It doesnt make it bad, it makes it a seperate thing then generation.

We agree. Without US learning SEVERE co-operation between Utility and Customers, the Central Plant Grid model is at some serious risk of economic collapse. Corporate Greed and Profit issues are a serious problem for US ahead. It already has been at times in the past, but with the Debt levels and behaviors this has created, US is heading to some hard times.

Second, for roof top, the future of that is in combo products. Where the roofing materials are the panel. If a roof install is $50,000, for just a roof material (and labor), and then solar is another $50,000, and a totally seperate, additional product, that also voids warranty on the roof; its a non-starter. Where it gets intresting is when its a $75,000 roofing product that generates electric. Its built into the dead loads, wind loads, ect. You dont void warranty cause the tile is the solar. We are working that way, slowly.

Warranties are not generally an issue, but the added costs are. When you can put Solar PV on the ground for 1/3 the cost of putting it on the roof . . . WHY are you going to put it on the Roof? I have come to view it as an appliance. We are not putting the refrigerator on the Roof?

Even on a home scale; new shingles on a 2500 square ft home, installed, about $12-16k, every 25 years. If they have a better life span, and a solar tile install was $25k; it starts being pretty attractive.

There are some SIPs (Structural Insulated Panels) that have Solar PV built in. That takes care of the Solar + Roofing + Sheathing + even some of the Framing (longer spans) all in one shot. But you cannot do the goofball multi-section, multiplane roofs that have become popular with McMansions.

 

[Phil Timmons]

China didnt build that many coal plants to then not use. China isn't exactly known for honest reporting

It is not "reporting." It is measurable, observable, results.

China does not need to lie. They can brag - because they are actually doing the work and selling it around the World. They are their own product representatives.

Instead of like . . . oh maybe . . . being a bunch of moron pirates trying to rob the world's Oil?

Between those -- which path do you think will turn out better?

 

[paulsharvey]

With most roof systems, any post install penetration Does void manufacturer warranty. As well as anything sitting on the roof system. So, as long as your racking system doesnt attack or sit on the roof, yeah. Then you also have insurance mandated inspection or replacement for roofs over 15 years old.

But, there is room for improvement, expansion of this type of system. Industrial type, PEMBs, using Rib-12, 26 ga panels; thats a very well established standard, that say a 12 ft panel could be integrated into, with pretty standard purlion spacing, ect.

Single family homes are likely going to lag behind warehouse type buildings. Even the slopes play into that. A 2:12 industrial type roof, on a 20,000 square ft rectangular building supply store, really isnt complex. A 3500 square ft custom home, much more so.

 

[Phil Timmons]

I would like to thing in 10 years, we get to the point that solar roof tile (and new or similar) become a no-brainer, a bit more expensive then shingles, longer life, and off set maybe 25-50% of your power bill, in summer. I dont mean 100% solar, i dont mean battery systems, just offsetting usage.

That doesnt displace oil, coal, nuclear, or solar farms though.

Displacement ahead is starting to look like . . .

(Predicting the Future is easy -- Predicting the Future correctly is impossible) . . .

So "starting" to look like:

+ Oil - 80% or more displaced.
+ Coal - 100% (cant get more) displaced.
+ Nukes (US) 50% (or more) shut down / displaced / not-replaced.
+ Solar -- 50 / 50 split between Utility Central Plant ("Solar Farm") AND Local "behind the meter," but still Grid-Tied + Off-Grid.
+ Wind is still in there, but between Solar so cheap + Time of Production v. Time of Use, how much is still "up in the air." (hahaha)
+ Hydro (Dams) will outlive US all.

[Add Edit]
+ Gas. Forgot Gas. How could I do that? Big now, but already becoming limited. Equipment timelines have become YEARS (many years, now). Likely to still be a Very Popular "Peaker," but with the MASSIVE Rise of Daytime Solar PV (Peak Times) will likely get less-and-less "run-time."

+ Gas for Thermal (Building, Water, and Industrial Heat, and such) is still the Wild Card.

 

[Phil Timmons]

And because you should never trust memes on their face, here's the study: https://www.anl.gov/article/insect-...-restored-habitats-of-solar-energy-facilities

Radware Bot Manager Captcha

I've also wondered how much pushback there would be against large solar installs if they would/could incentivize locals by offering free/reduced power for the lifetime of owning their home. Live with a mile, you get free power. 2 miles, 80%, etc.

You could have that with a Utility Co-op or Community Solar.

With Corporate Utility Central Plant . . . not so much. With the Central Plant Model - The Source (whether Coal, Nukes, Solar Farm, etc) sell their power wholesale.

Then it goes to a Transmission (the BIG tower and lines), and then down to a local Distributor after the Sub-station.

After all those layers, the starting costs are not such a part of the overall retail price (what US the Humans pay), as much as they are something fought among the layers and players.

 

[Hay Dude]

Suppose it could be viewed that way.

In practice it comes down to fatal combination of Arrogance and Ignorance.

The Arrogance makes US think US is better, smarter, faster, etc., than US are.

And then the Ignorance that follows does not allow US to even see how dumb US are.

Not exactly the best practices of Proverbs nor the Beatitudes, in general.

And I don’t know if you know this, but “arrogance and ignorance” are sins. So as long as we stay in the bible and in rooted in Christianity, we can keep those sins to a minimum.

I don’t agree with you to broad brush the US as “dumb”. Sure, there are dumb people, but they exist in all countries and cultures. The US also has dumb politicians, we can both agree on that, but they also exist in other countries.
We also have brilliant people.

However, the nature of the US is still rooted in christianity and capitalism, thankfully, not Godlessness and socialism, and that gives the free private enterprise system we have in place a lot of control, rather than being controlled by a Godless socialist or communist system of centralized control.

I would rather live here than China, or any other place in the world. Our technology, while not always perfect, is still the best and as long as we stay a Capitalist country, we will continue to be the country everyone wants to come to. We do need to stop attracting others with free handouts, though. It costs too much and lowers the quality of life for all.
You can’t have open borders and be a welfare state, as is frequently said.

 

[Hay Dude]

It is not "reporting." It is measurable, observable, results.

China does not need to lie. They can brag - because they are actually doing the work and selling it around the World. They are their own product representatives.

Instead of like . . . oh maybe . . . being a bunch of moron pirates trying to rob the world's Oil?

Between those -- which path do you think will turn out better?

I’m not convinced we are in Iran just for oil. We have so much domestic oil and gas. And now we will have an immense direct source of oil from Venezuela heading our way. And it’s mostly the type of oil we lack.

So remind me why we need oil from Iran so much ??

I’d say the chinese seek oil from Iran far more than we do.

Call me crazy, but I think it’s more rooted in 1. revenge for Americans killed by them (in conjunction with Israelis killed by them) and 2. to keep them from developing a nuke.

After-all, if it wasn’t for keeping a nuke out of their hands, why would we be so persistent at wanting to retrieve all the nuke “dust”?

 

[edgarrian]

It is not "reporting." It is measurable, observable, results.

China does not need to lie. They can brag - because they are actually doing the work and selling it around the World. They are their own product representatives.

Instead of like . . . oh maybe . . . being a bunch of moron pirates trying to rob the world's Oil?

Between those -- which path do you think will turn out better?

You dont think china has a plan for all those clean coal plants they just built? There is an arms race to AI, robotics, tracking and hacking we aren't even aware of yet.

Phil anything measurable can be manipulated. So lets not pretend china doesnt harm the environment.

Im not suggesting we should fly around and rob oil either. Frankly i think the iran war is crap. With that said im not stupid enough to believe china is this perfect example of what to do.