Thoughts on mega wind and solar projects

[Phil Timmons]

On the solar panel and wind generator companies...what happens when the subsidies end or the companies themselves go out of business?

In the case of Solar PV -- the install prices / costs are now down so cheap -- it does not matter. Full install costs are down around $1 per Watt. That is WITHOUT any subsidies.

Real Thing now (2026) is that Low-Cost Solar PV has is a 50% Punitive Tariff AGAINST it. You follow? You may have thought the Feds were promoting it? Turns out Coal, Nukes, and Gas are all on Welfare AGAINST it.

That works out to 2 to 3 cents per kWh, across the Service Life of the Panels. Service Life is now estimated at 30 to 40 years. With little-to-no Operations and Maintenance Expense. And when it is due for replacement -- the racks, wiring, connections can all stay in place, so it only costs 1/5th or less to just swap out the panels for the NEXT 40 years.

So with that low of Wholesale Prices / Costs -- nothing can really match it. With these numbers, Solar may saturate the daytime grid, and force most everything else off. Which is not really a good thing, either. So this model has a very low-risk of business failure, as someone else (operator) will just snag any existing project up for the Cash Flow.

 

[Larry Caldwell]

Those are some big numbers. The retail prices are rather independent from the source. Capitalism and "For Profit," yunno. US Folks seem to worship at that altar and then are surprised at what it delivers? Sort of strange in that regard.

The way folks make or save money on Solar PV in the US is to OWN the Solar PV "behind the meter." Not by paying a For Profit Corporation. More of that Capitalism stuff.

Did you see the rationalization (not saying it is so) comparing farmland use for Ethanol (Corn) v. Solar PV? The Wiki write-up mentions it. Have been wondering what would happen in US farmland if demand for Corn (Ethanol) drops ahead.

I guess the proposed "use" is a mix of Solar PV + Agriculture? Generally called Agri-Voltaics or some such. Any idea if they are really doing that?

Mammoth Solar - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

I have a solar salesman showing up on Wednesday. Pacific Power is loaning the money for residential solar installations. I heat with wood, so I don't think it will pencil out for me. Plus, rooftop house solar does not have good exposure, though I have about 6 acres of 100% slope south facing wasteland on the other side of the county road that would be great. Getting the power across the road is only one part of the problem. The other is that I am the last house on the line, which is only a 1200v. feeder that would melt if I tried to pump much solar down it.

 

[Larry Caldwell]

In the case of Solar PV -- the install prices / costs are now down so cheap -- it does not matter. Full install costs are down around $1 per Watt. That is WITHOUT any subsidies.

Real Thing now (2026) is that Low-Cost Solar PV has is a 50% Punitive Tariff AGAINST it. You follow? You may have thought the Feds were promoting it? Turns out Coal, Nukes, and Gas are all on Welfare AGAINST it.

That works out to 2 to 3 cents per kWh, across the Service Life of the Panels. Service Life is now estimated at 30 to 40 years. With little-to-no Operations and Maintenance Expense. And when it is due for replacement -- the racks, wiring, connections can all stay in place, so it only costs 1/5th or less to just swap out the panels for the NEXT 40 years.

So with that low of Wholesale Prices / Costs -- nothing can really match it. With these numbers, Solar may saturate the daytime grid, and force most everything else off. Which is not really a good thing, either. So this model has a very low-risk of business failure, as someone else (operator) will just snag any existing project up for the Cash Flow.

Some California utilities are handing out battery storage for 24 hour solar, and of course Tesla is repurposing EV batteries that don't meet automotive spec for residential use. I have also heard rumors of used EV batteries being repurposed for residential storage, though haven't seen it really happen. I think residential battery storage will need to wait for a spin-off of the cheaper utility company batteries that are not weight constrained.

 

[Duds13]

I have a solar salesman showing up on Wednesday. Pacific Power is loaning the money for residential solar installations. I heat with wood, so I don't think it will pencil out for me. Plus, rooftop house solar does not have good exposure, though I have about 6 acres of 100% slope south facing wasteland on the other side of the county road that would be great. Getting the power across the road is only one part of the problem. The other is that I am the last house on the line, which is only a 1200v. feeder that would melt if I tried to pump much solar down it.

View attachment 5708516

Sorry but I just don't understand why anyone would want to put solar panels on that.