Thoughts on mega wind and solar projects

/ Thoughts on mega wind and solar projects #581  
On the solar panel and wind generator companies...what happens when the subsidies end or the companies themselves go out of business?

In the case of Solar PV -- the install prices / costs are now down so cheap -- it does not matter. Full install costs are down around $1 per Watt. That is WITHOUT any subsidies.

Real Thing now (2026) is that Low-Cost Solar PV has is a 50% Punitive Tariff AGAINST it. You follow? You may have thought the Feds were promoting it? Turns out Coal, Nukes, and Gas are all on Welfare AGAINST it.

That works out to 2 to 3 cents per kWh, across the Service Life of the Panels. Service Life is now estimated at 30 to 40 years. With little-to-no Operations and Maintenance Expense. And when it is due for replacement -- the racks, wiring, connections can all stay in place, so it only costs 1/5th or less to just swap out the panels for the NEXT 40 years.

So with that low of Wholesale Prices / Costs -- nothing can really match it. With these numbers, Solar may saturate the daytime grid, and force most everything else off. Which is not really a good thing, either. So this model has a very low-risk of business failure, as someone else (operator) will just snag any existing project up for the Cash Flow.
 
/ Thoughts on mega wind and solar projects #582  
Those are some big numbers. The retail prices are rather independent from the source. Capitalism and "For Profit," yunno. US Folks seem to worship at that altar and then are surprised at what it delivers? Sort of strange in that regard.

The way folks make or save money on Solar PV in the US is to OWN the Solar PV "behind the meter." Not by paying a For Profit Corporation. More of that Capitalism stuff.

Did you see the rationalization (not saying it is so) comparing farmland use for Ethanol (Corn) v. Solar PV? The Wiki write-up mentions it. Have been wondering what would happen in US farmland if demand for Corn (Ethanol) drops ahead.

I guess the proposed "use" is a mix of Solar PV + Agriculture? Generally called Agri-Voltaics or some such. Any idea if they are really doing that?

I have a solar salesman showing up on Wednesday. Pacific Power is loaning the money for residential solar installations. I heat with wood, so I don't think it will pencil out for me. Plus, rooftop house solar does not have good exposure, though I have about 6 acres of 100% slope south facing wasteland on the other side of the county road that would be great. Getting the power across the road is only one part of the problem. The other is that I am the last house on the line, which is only a 1200v. feeder that would melt if I tried to pump much solar down it.

100_0185.JPG
 
/ Thoughts on mega wind and solar projects #583  
In the case of Solar PV -- the install prices / costs are now down so cheap -- it does not matter. Full install costs are down around $1 per Watt. That is WITHOUT any subsidies.

Real Thing now (2026) is that Low-Cost Solar PV has is a 50% Punitive Tariff AGAINST it. You follow? You may have thought the Feds were promoting it? Turns out Coal, Nukes, and Gas are all on Welfare AGAINST it.

That works out to 2 to 3 cents per kWh, across the Service Life of the Panels. Service Life is now estimated at 30 to 40 years. With little-to-no Operations and Maintenance Expense. And when it is due for replacement -- the racks, wiring, connections can all stay in place, so it only costs 1/5th or less to just swap out the panels for the NEXT 40 years.

So with that low of Wholesale Prices / Costs -- nothing can really match it. With these numbers, Solar may saturate the daytime grid, and force most everything else off. Which is not really a good thing, either. So this model has a very low-risk of business failure, as someone else (operator) will just snag any existing project up for the Cash Flow.
Some California utilities are handing out battery storage for 24 hour solar, and of course Tesla is repurposing EV batteries that don't meet automotive spec for residential use. I have also heard rumors of used EV batteries being repurposed for residential storage, though haven't seen it really happen. I think residential battery storage will need to wait for a spin-off of the cheaper utility company batteries that are not weight constrained.
 
/ Thoughts on mega wind and solar projects #584  
I have a solar salesman showing up on Wednesday. Pacific Power is loaning the money for residential solar installations. I heat with wood, so I don't think it will pencil out for me. Plus, rooftop house solar does not have good exposure, though I have about 6 acres of 100% slope south facing wasteland on the other side of the county road that would be great. Getting the power across the road is only one part of the problem. The other is that I am the last house on the line, which is only a 1200v. feeder that would melt if I tried to pump much solar down it.

View attachment 5708516
Sorry but I just don't understand why anyone would want to put solar panels on that.
 
/ Thoughts on mega wind and solar projects #585  
I have a solar salesman showing up on Wednesday. Pacific Power is loaning the money for residential solar installations. I heat with wood, so I don't think it will pencil out for me. Plus, rooftop house solar does not have good exposure, though I have about 6 acres of 100% slope south facing wasteland on the other side of the county road that would be great. Getting the power across the road is only one part of the problem. The other is that I am the last house on the line, which is only a 1200v. feeder that would melt if I tried to pump much solar down it.

View attachment 5708516


Pro Tips? First, it looks like you are right about on the edge of Good Insolation (how much Sun hits the ground) range. So that should be good. We can check the maps in more detail, as things progress. After you hear and see the proposal, (watts, orientation, tilt, etc.) we can do nearly exact production models with
[ PVWatts ]

As far as the business part -- you may be offered direct sales to you as home owner. While the Home Owner Tax Credit has expired, the BUSINESS owned Tax Credit is still good. If you operate a business, farm, etc., you will still likely be good with the Tax Credit. That is 30%. There may be an additional 10% Credit depending on the equipment, type, source, etc, called Domestic Content. Do you know if the local Utility or State, etc., are offering any assistance?

The Salesfolks may also offer you a Lease for 5 years (with the Solar Company or others being the Owners). That way they can still get the Tax Credit (it is their business property). It is now a common offer that the system reverts to you owning it in full at the end of the 5 years (usually written as 6 years total, I think). That way you have fully paid them, they got the Tax Credit, and now the next 20+ years of operation is on you -- however this is usually a rather fair deal, if the lease costs less than buying Utility Electricity.

There are also PPA (Power Purchase Agreements). Like the Lease, it is still someone else's "Property" for Tax Credit purposes, but you get discounted Electricity. Turn over (to you in full) varies on PPA offers.

If it is Direct Sales -- GET THE PROPOSED ACTUAL INSTALLED WATTAGE (not just number of panels, or utility offsets, etc.) and the Total Price. We will divide Price / Wattage to get $ per Watt. We would like that down around $1 per Watt, but may see up to $2 per Watt, as okay, if there are other considerations.

Look for any upgrades you may like, as well. It really is generally cheaper to get everything taken care of at once. Includes any roof repairs (if going up there), Electrical Service and Panel. EVs connections. Sometimes we do lights, water heaters, HVAC, as well. Even Soft-Starters for HVAC, Generators, Transfer Switches, and Batteries, if desired. (I am not really a fan of large battery systems for typical homeowners).

I like the site you describe -- South facing hill with no obstructions -- that sounds great. And since it is OFF THE ROOF -- no Rapid Shutdown is required. (saves around $50 to over $100 per panel). Make sure they are NOT charging you for Rapid Shutdown or Micro-Inverters, if it is OFF THE ROOF.

As far as End of the Line conditions. Yeah, we deal with that in Rural and West Texas. Often the Utility has turned up the final transformers (variable Voltage Taps) to keep the Voltage up during heavy use Summer (AC) or Winter (Heating). That may make your local Voltage a bit higher than the Target 120 / 240 V.

The Grid Tie inverter has an operating range of 120 / V per leg or 240 leg-to-leg +/- 10% or a little wider. So that is typical based on 240 V (211 V to 264 V). If things float higher due to you sending power UP -- the Inverter may detect a local Voltage Rise and auto-disconnect. Then the Voltage drops, and the Inverter reconnects and again . . . on and on. Our general "fix" for that is to ask the Utility to turn the final transformer down -- or sometimes we use a small buck-boost transformer (part of install) to bring down the Voltage that the Inverter "sees," and act normal.
 
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/ Thoughts on mega wind and solar projects
  • Thread Starter
#586  
China Coal run-time is about 50%.

Which is about the same as US.

China Coal Run-time trend is downward.

Which is about the same as US.

(US did bump up last year due to Gas Price Increase).

It costs China to import Coal.

Installed China Solar PV and Big Wind is "Free" to operate.

WHY would China be trying to present they are not using the Coal plants more than 50%? Or not not using them? This is all tracked by satellites.

China has offered to connect to US with HVDC. They seem to think US is just rather stupid, but are too polite to say so. So far they seem correct in this regard.
China has captured anyone and everyone who is on board with clean tech. Just browse linkedin China is constantly glorified. Solar panel production. Even though they have vast amount of toxic lakes from manufacturing them.

China has 1200 coal plants. We have maybe 200. Here in the states prices are rising fast. China not so much. Here in the states we politicized energy so much that we shut down plants without considering the ramifications. People will often say its expensive to keep the coal plants current. Well when you red tape a certain industry as much as we have. Then yes it will be expensive. The race to AI and robotics will require an abundance of one thing. Thats energy. China understand that.

I think china sees what's coming. It would also explan why they are rapidly deploying nuclear. Wind and solar is great until its not. You still need constant power especially in the arms race of AI and robotics.

You maybe right. Coal is only running at 50% but that can change when needed. As im sure it does.

CHina also doesn't have any resistance or opposition to wind turbine placement or fields of solar. They probably do but what happens to that opposition?

China thinks we are stupid b/c we shipped everything to them for production. Now were trying to get it back. Its interesting how we celebrate our reduction in emissions. To only just have them moved to another country
 
/ Thoughts on mega wind and solar projects #587  
On the solar panel and wind generator companies...what happens when the subsidies end or the companies themselves go out of business?
The same that happens with any corporate infrastructure, its left as a massive mound of trash or a potential biohazard that no one wants to take responsibility for so tax payers and average folks are stuck with the mess.
 
/ Thoughts on mega wind and solar projects #588  
The same that happens with any corporate infrastructure, its left as a massive mound of trash or a potential biohazard that no one wants to take responsibility for so tax payers and average folks are stuck with the mess.
There are lots of abandoned oil wells and coal mines throughout the west from the early days of mining. The operations that occurred in recent years are typically mitigated after abandonment, but those old companies are no longer in existence and the public is responsible for mitigation and cleanup.
 
/ Thoughts on mega wind and solar projects #589  
There are lots of abandoned oil wells and coal mines throughout the west from the early days of mining. The operations that occurred in recent years are typically mitigated after abandonment, but those old companies are no longer in existence and the public is responsible for mitigation and cleanup.
I suspect we will face similar with new tech as the companies sort themselves into winners and losers.
 
/ Thoughts on mega wind and solar projects #590  
When we went to San Diego we saw this Target with solar panels used for covered parking. Aerial view shows the roof pretty well covered as well. That looks like the way to go.

View attachment 5708096

Personally, I love those solar carports. During the warmer months, they make a huge difference to how warm the car is after shopping. Getting heat out of something takes more energy than getting heat into something due to the inefficiency working against the process. I'd love one here to expand our solar but those nice galvanized I-beams and concrete bases sure aren't cheap if you are only putting up a small one, as it would take about an hour and a half of auger time, and three or four hours of crane time, and I'd get billed for a day, plus transport costs.

Locally, businesses have a 10 month to 18 month ROI on adding batteries to get them through the 3pm to midnight high power tariffs. So, it is not just the big box stores, nor even business with solar, non-solar business customers make it up the installation costs by charging during low price off peak times to use during peak rates.

All the best, Peter
 
/ Thoughts on mega wind and solar projects #591  
China has captured anyone and everyone who is on board with clean tech. Just browse linkedin China is constantly glorified. Solar panel production. Even though they have vast amount of toxic lakes from manufacturing them.

Who, What, Where are these "lake(s)"?

Meanwhile China is not really running "ahead" that much. They are pretty much just on the line of normal improvement on a given technology. The starting points for Silicon Solar PV started in the US. US has just been too dumb, lazy, and greedy to progress it.

Same on EVs. Tesla and start-ups got it going. Then the moron MBAs of the US 3 stooges tried to copy the homework and got it wrong. Meanwhile China put in the work, study, did EVs right, and now lead the world.

Thing to truly understand is this == US is actively, intentionally, and measurably getting Dumb(er).

I know folks (rather than listening and understanding and seeking to improve that) want to rant with USA #1!, and MAGA, and Drill, Baby, Drill, and American Exceptionalism! like a bunch of howling baboons, but NONE of that produces anything other more stupid.

Ever see the movie "Idiocracy?" Turns out that was Prophecy more than Comedy.

Consider when the US Great Dumbing began with Reagan pulling Solar Thermal (water heating) off the White House? That was around the start of the Great Dumbing, and also shows up in the massive accumulation of Debt.

US has consistently been getting dumber since.


China has 1200 coal plants. We have maybe 200. Here in the states prices are rising fast. China not so much. Here in the states we politicized energy so much that we shut down plants without considering the ramifications. People will often say its expensive to keep the coal plants current. Well when you red tape a certain industry as much as we have. Then yes it will be expensive. The race to AI and robotics will require an abundance of one thing. Thats energy. China understand that.

US prices rising are from the US money going worth less on the way to worthless. It is the bankers method of covering the Debt. Currency Inflation is an intentional hidden tax on poor and middle people.

This is because US does not pay the bills, runs debt, has become too stupid build things, and wastes all US money on goofball military equipment and misadventures and interest on prior debt, all accumulated from the prior stupidity.

The biggest thing (and hinderance) that harms US is the ambient stupid.


I think china sees what's coming. It would also explan why they are rapidly deploying nuclear.

They are not. Rapidly deploying Nukes, I mean. They only had 5% (of generation) or less Nukes to start with. On the present path, they will likely stop at around 10%. Since Nukes have to run full time, they saturate their own market quickly and become not-profitable. US maxed at about 20%, with "Peak Nukes" at 104 Reactors. US is now down to 94 Reactors and the 10% that went away are not even missed.

Wind and solar is great until its not. You still need constant power especially in the arms race of AI and robotics.

There is not an Arms Race of AI. There is a massive Capitalist Con-Job going on. It is HYPE. For moron "Investors." Think Dot-com Bubble. Or 2008 Housing Bubble. Have you seen a movie called the Big Short? This is a big circle-jerk for lack of a better term. Maybe catch this clip of Big Short? The casino part will probably make sense?


But for Robotics? This part is pretty simple stuff. A typical US John Deere combine from the 1950s (I had a JD 45 and 55 ;P ) is more complex and energy intensive.

Most robotics run mostly on simple DC motors. Sometimes pneumatics and hydraulics. If you play with Tractors some -- you already understand all of this. If you want them to last longer, and have a budget, you can go with Brushless DC and some Variable Frequency AC Motors, but that is still simple.

Really at school we are building them from surplus DC brush motor automotive parts. Like wiper and window motors. I will put up some pictures of the toys we are building at school.

You maybe right. Coal is only running at 50% but that can change when needed. As im sure it does.

Coal use everywhere varies by season and load(s). US Coal use goes up in Winter and Summer. But we shut them off for entire months (repairs and rebuilds) in Spring and Fall. The Capacity Factor (% run-time) is based on yearly average run-time.

CHina also doesn't have any resistance or opposition to wind turbine placement or fields of solar. They probably do but what happens to that opposition?

US aint no poster child in this regard. Called Eminent Domain. Done with pipelines for the Drill, Baby, Drill folks. Corporations over Citizens. The American Way.

China thinks we are stupid b/c we shipped everything to them for production. Now were trying to get it back. Its interesting how we celebrate our reduction in emissions. To only just have them moved to another country

It was the emissions that got China replacing all the Old Coal Plants. Have you seen sample pictures of the Air Quality (or lack of) in China a decade or more ago? When you can actually "see" the Air, it is not a good thing. So they decided to clean things up.
 
/ Thoughts on mega wind and solar projects #592  
On the solar panel and wind generator companies...what happens when the subsidies end or the companies themselves go out of business?
They are supposed to have a bond to remove them before they even start construction. So the money for removal should be in place.

Now that doesn't mean it IS in place. For example, our local county economic director and one of the three county commissioners accepted a $250,000 bond for decommissioning a solar farm in the future, which is far short of the estimated $15,000,000 it may cost.

The pitchforks and torches are out for these two now.
 
/ Thoughts on mega wind and solar projects #593  
Personally, I love those solar carports. During the warmer months, they make a huge difference to how warm the car is after shopping. Getting heat out of something takes more energy than getting heat into something due to the inefficiency working against the process. I'd love one here to expand our solar but those nice galvanized I-beams and concrete bases sure aren't cheap if you are only putting up a small one, as it would take about an hour and a half of auger time, and three or four hours of crane time, and I'd get billed for a day, plus transport costs.

Yeah. WAY too expensive and complex approach. US folks just cannot seem to understand CHEAP. Not dogging you on that at all -- the collective moronathon that permitting, preferred and conventional methods, and have to do things "this way" (or that way).

Locally, businesses have a 10 month to 18 month ROI on adding batteries to get them through the 3pm to midnight high power tariffs. So, it is not just the big box stores, nor even business with solar, non-solar business customers make it up the installation costs by charging during low price off peak times to use during peak rates.

All the best, Peter

Your local TOU "Peak" runs to midnight, now?

Interesting profile. We keep our eye on you all to see what might be coming our way.
 
/ Thoughts on mega wind and solar projects #594  
They are supposed to have a bond to remove them before they even start construction. So the money for removal should be in place.

Now that doesn't mean it IS in place. For example, our local county economic director and one of the three county commissioners accepted a $250,000 bond for decommissioning a solar farm in the future, which is far short of the estimated $15,000,000 it may cost.

The pitchforks and torches are out for these two now.

Not likely that big of deal. Pitchforks and Torches are often in the hands of . . . not exactly the brightest bulbs. Is that kind enough?

Salvage and Recycle cover much of it, along with more likely continued use of the site for the same. As cheap as new install Solar PV has become -- replacing the panels is even cheaper. 1/5th or less of the cost of new at current prices -- which are likely even cheaper looking ahead.
 
/ Thoughts on mega wind and solar projects #595  
What if (work with me) the company goes belly up and no one wants to operate that solar farm?

Wind turbines are facing some of this today.
Texas sues wind turbine company for allegedly abandoning 3,000 blades in west Texas

Abandoned wind turbines in California are primarily early 1980s-era models located in areas like the Tehachapi Pass, often referred to as "boneyards," left behind after companies went bankrupt.

You have more faith that companies will reclaim or recycle if the cost is more than their bond. It's like an insurance company paying more than their contracted liability.
 
/ Thoughts on mega wind and solar projects #596  
Yeah. WAY too expensive and complex approach. US folks just cannot seem to understand CHEAP. Not dogging you on that at all -- the collective moronathon that permitting, preferred and conventional methods, and have to do things "this way" (or that way).



Your local TOU "Peak" runs to midnight, now?

Interesting profile. We keep our eye on you all to see what might be coming our way.
Yes, and has been for several years. It is in part due to declining solar production after 3pm, and increasing demand (home use) between 4pm and 9pm (ACs going on and cooking). With the rapid deployment of batteries across the state, I personally anticipate that the difference between peak and off peak will decline, as batteries consume more power during times when there is excess solar, and are used to offset demand in the afternoon and evenings. Almost all commercial solar installations come with batteries to increase the revenue to the owners by being able to sell peak power, and not be penalized for putting power on the grid 12:00-15:00, when the excess solar production is the highest.

I would bear in mind that our local utility is particularly adept at slicing and dicing tariffs.
The winter rates aren't that different;
1777994476797.png


The summer rates have a greater difference;
1777994517332.png

Add $24/mo(+/-) to be connected to the grid. (This is an EV rate, one of two tariffs available to solar owners.)

Small businesses pay even higher rates, plus demand charges, which is why adding batteries pencils out so quickly for businesses.

All the best,

Peter
 
/ Thoughts on mega wind and solar projects #597  
What if (work with me) the company goes belly up and no one wants to operate that solar farm?

The longer-term concern (my POV and not always so MHO) is the moronic US (MBAs, again) made "Thin Film" Solar PV. A bunch of that crap got into the Utility scale mix.

Other than that, folks are standing in-line (long line - decade ahead now) to get access to Solar PV sites with Grid Access. Thing that ALL of this runs on is MONEY -- not Electricity or Energy or whatever. And Solar PV is the low-cost leader. Coal, Nukes, and Gas (all more expensive) will have to drop off first

Wind turbines are facing some of this today.
Texas sues wind turbine company for allegedly abandoning 3,000 blades in west Texas

Abandoned wind turbines in California are primarily early 1980s-era models located in areas like the Tehachapi Pass, often referred to as "boneyards," left behind after companies went bankrupt.

As @jyoutz noted above . . .

Here is the REAL Mess left behind >>> Plugging orphan wells across the United States

The drill-baby-drill folks do not really gaf about US.

You have more faith that companies will reclaim or recycle if the cost is more than their bond. It's like an insurance company paying more than their contracted liability.

Unless the materials go worthless (Aluminum, Copper, and Steel in particular), the salvage is still valuable. At the end of the day, even old cars (far bigger mix and mess) are a profitable salvage operation.
 
/ Thoughts on mega wind and solar projects #598  
Face it people are not good at cleaning up after themselves in all endeavors.

As for salvage value, depends on labor and transportation costs. I know it costs me most of the value to transport per ton with free labor.
Out here in the boonies most want to charge you to pick up a junk car or other steel recycle.
Is there profit in it or would a company just break even if they paid a living wage for labor?
Will be cheaper to rebuild/replace an older site or start over in a clean fresh location?
I don't have the answers but I do know something newer and "better" will come......

Recycling is a lot like gold mining. The return has to exceed the input. 20 years ago much of the currently mined ground was not feasible to mine but once the prices went up enough it is worth the effort to mine the stuff left behind previously.
I live in Lead country and the price of lead dictated how much mining is actively done....
Only government works to loose money
 
/ Thoughts on mega wind and solar projects #599  
Yes, and has been for several years. It is in part due to declining solar production after 3pm, and increasing demand (home use) between 4pm and 9pm (ACs going on and cooking). With the rapid deployment of batteries across the state, I personally anticipate that the difference between peak and off peak will decline, as batteries consume more power during times when there is excess solar, and are used to offset demand in the afternoon and evenings. Almost all commercial solar installations come with batteries to increase the revenue to the owners by being able to sell peak power, and not be penalized for putting power on the grid 12:00-15:00, when the excess solar production is the highest.

I would bear in mind that our local utility is particularly adept at slicing and dicing tariffs.
The winter rates aren't that different;
View attachment 5708873

The summer rates have a greater difference;
View attachment 5708874
Add $24/mo(+/-) to be connected to the grid. (This is an EV rate, one of two tariffs available to solar owners.)

Small businesses pay even higher rates, plus demand charges, which is why adding batteries pencils out so quickly for businesses.

All the best,

Peter

Interesting. Thanks! Yeah, I see the daytime Solar PV saturation is already hitting you.

It is the time between 9pm (21:00) and Midnight that is catching my eye.

That particular 3 hours.

I have conditioned to think TOU peak drops off at 9 pm -- but yours runs until Midnight.

Any insights as to why your peak runs until Midnight?
 
/ Thoughts on mega wind and solar projects #600  
Face it people are not good at cleaning up after themselves in all endeavors.

As for salvage value, depends on labor and transportation costs. I know it costs me most of the value to transport per ton with free labor.
Out here in the boonies most want to charge you to pick up a junk car or other steel recycle.
Is there profit in it or would a company just break even if they paid a living wage for labor?
Will be cheaper to rebuild/replace an older site or start over in a clean fresh location?
I don't have the answers but I do know something newer and "better" will come......

Recycling is a lot like gold mining. The return has to exceed the input. 20 years ago much of the currently mined ground was not feasible to mine but once the prices went up enough it is worth the effort to mine the stuff left behind previously.
I live in Lead country and the price of lead dictated how much mining is actively done....
Only government works to loose money
Recycling economics is based on volume. It will cost you to have a junk car hauled off, but there’s money in hauling off a large junkyard of junk cars for recycling.
 
 
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