Thoughts on mega wind and solar projects

[BravoXray]

Can you imagine if there were poles supporting overhead solar panels?

Just make them 6' diameter concrete posts, with black and white checkerboard paint on them. They'd remember hitting one of those.

 

[Larry Caldwell]

The industry will stick them anywhere to get that subsidy money

Cost of solar has dropped 99.9% in the last 20 years. It is by far the cheapest electricity available. Canceling all the solar subsides has not even slowed down new solar installations. In the last two months, China's solar panel exports have doubled.

 

[Larry Caldwell]

I always though parking lots would be a natural place to cover with solar panels. Until you realize that people have a hard enough time driving through an unobstructed parking lot, without hitting something. Can you imagine if there were poles supporting overhead solar panels?

Like the light poles?

 

[paulsharvey]

Cost of solar has dropped 99.9% in the last 20 years. It is by far the cheapest electricity available. Canceling all the solar subsides has not even slowed down new solar installations. In the last two months, China's solar panel exports have doubled.

Talking engineers with FPL, its speed that drives it here. They can go from wanting a solar plant/farm, to making electric in 5 years. Traditional thermal plants, even with political fast tracking, its 5 years of planning/permitting, at the min and then 3-5 years of construction.

So, solar to meet growth surges, thermal establishes a baseline.

Also we have atleast a 15 year track record of the solar farms being effective, reliable, and harmless. We also have dozens that have been in place, that you really would need to try to find. Even 150 ft from a road, they are often fenced and have a landscape buffer, and they dont jump out at you (from ground level)

 

[lman]

Who is actually benefitting from these solar farms that are being constructed on old farm land? I've yet to hear one person say "WOW, my electric bill went down X percent thanks to the new solar farm!" Here in NY, electric bills have gone through the roof.

I knew a guy that helped install solar panels on 13,000 acres of prime farmland in my area. I was kidding him about how my bill should be going down with all of the free electricity and he said that they planned on rates increasing 10%/year. This farmland was leased to them at $1,000 per acre/month for at least 30 years. He was making about $3,000/week working 7 days a week.

 

[edgarrian]

The farmers, or the property owners. These solar farms are either purchasing the land for greater than agriculture prices, or signing very nice, long term leases, at significantly more than cash rent rates for ag. The power company is benefiting, mostly just by the speed/ease of increasing production. The rate payers are benefiting, even if prices dont drop, they dont increase at the same rate they would. The contractors doing the work benefit. Honestly, water quality likely improves. Not anti ag, but ag generally Does have a negative to water quality. Manufacturer benefit. Local motels, camp grounds, and restaurants benefit during construction as workers need to eat/sleep.

The closest thing to a "victim" in this, is people who just dont like looking at what other people do on their own property. Wild life, somewhat, but its not completely all bad, but it does support less than ag or woods, and different animals benefit vs ag. Water quality,.. maybe, its not dirty, actually cleaner then ag, but it also is more run off from impervious surface area. Long term, established Ag businesses (seed, fertilizer, equipment, insurance, processors, ect), do take a hit.

More to it than people not just wanting to look at it. Farmers fields have drainage tile connected to county drains. Typically this is subsidized heavily for farmers to put drainage in fields.

Farmer signs lease. Solar company destroys field tile. Causes flooding upstream of their tile. He then gets sued and loses a lot. That story has played out more than a few times. I sent letters of intent notifying possible lease holders of what i would do. At this point i just dont care. I grew up farming and the neighborly thing to do was talking with neighbors about big projects on our land or there land. That doesn't even remotely happen anymore. There was still an understanding of what you did with land and how it could impact others. Thats been lost for a few decades now.

Luckily for us our county officials have listened to its constituents. We ran off wind and solar. Solar again about 2 months ago. Here is what its interesting. Our county comprehensive plan states wind and solar are undesirable.

Tipton county just north of us has wind turbines. The county needed revitalized so project was approved. Zero jobs created. The 10year abatement is gone. Schools need more money. Population did not grown. Zero gained from it

 

[edgarrian]

Cost of solar has dropped 99.9% in the last 20 years. It is by far the cheapest electricity available. Canceling all the solar subsides has not even slowed down new solar installations. In the last two months, China's solar panel exports have doubled.

So what ur saying is it was a good idea to finally get rid of the tax credit for EVs? Sure

However subidies for solar has not gone away yet. That doesn't run out until JULY larry. We will see what happens after that.

Who cares what china is doing. We compare ourselves to them all the time. Fun fact. China built more coal plants than the entire world did in 5 years

 

[WM75Guy]

Time will tell on some projects. Here is one where the only people that made out on the project were the moronic engineers who designed and worked on this project. Now the taxpayers and the utility customers are left paying for it. Killing more birds than wind, displaced the native wildlife, destroyed the land, and never lived up to projections, but hey, it's green energy.

Obama-backed $2.2B green energy 'boondoggle' leaves taxpayers on the hook

 

[paulsharvey]

I knew a guy that helped install solar panels on 13,000 acres of prime farmland in my area. I was kidding him about how my bill should be going down with all of the free electricity and he said that they planned on rates increasing 10%/year. This farmland was leased to them at $1,000 per acre/month for at least 30 years. He was making about $3,000/week working 7 days a week.

I would Think those lease rates are wrong, but if not... Guys, anyone wants to bulldoze my woods, and my house, and do anything they want with it for $1000/month/acre, PM me. Heck, if you want to offer a 30 year lease, ill buy more to lease to you.

Anyways, evem if those are off by a factor of 10; that is a huge win for the property owner.

So, got some friends, running right around 800 acres of low quality cattle land, some of it scrub woods, some low quality pasture. They do a bit better than pay the taxes on it off the operation, maybe +$30-$60k/year (depending on year). If you could lock up a $1k/year/acre for 30 years; that changes a whole family tree of wealth.

 

[lman]

They are also looking for land near large substations. I believe you are correct, it was $1,000/year.

 

[Phil Timmons]

I knew a guy that helped install solar panels on 13,000 acres of prime farmland in my area. I was kidding him about how my bill should be going down with all of the free electricity and he said that they planned on rates increasing 10%/year. This farmland was leased to them at $1,000 per acre/month for at least 30 years. He was making about $3,000/week working 7 days a week.

Those are some big numbers. The retail prices are rather independent from the source. Capitalism and "For Profit," yunno. US Folks seem to worship at that altar and then are surprised at what it delivers? Sort of strange in that regard.

The way folks make or save money on Solar PV in the US is to OWN the Solar PV "behind the meter." Not by paying a For Profit Corporation. More of that Capitalism stuff.

Did you see the rationalization (not saying it is so) comparing farmland use for Ethanol (Corn) v. Solar PV? The Wiki write-up mentions it. Have been wondering what would happen in US farmland if demand for Corn (Ethanol) drops ahead.

I guess the proposed "use" is a mix of Solar PV + Agriculture? Generally called Agri-Voltaics or some such. Any idea if they are really doing that?

Mammoth Solar - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[paulsharvey]

Fundamentally, I see solar farms as just that, solar Farms, a different type of agriculture, but basically still ag. They are using land and the sun to create a more valuable resource then it started as. It could be cotton, peanuts, pine trees, pecans, citrus, or pasture, but in the end, same thing.


If it makes sense without goverment grants, price controls, ect (Ag gets them too, because food production is necessary; but electricity is just as important as food, and you cant have food without electricity/energy too), why not.

 

[Phil Timmons]

I would Think those lease rates are wrong, but if not... Guys, anyone wants to bulldoze my woods, and my house, and do anything they want with it for $1000/month/acre, PM me. Heck, if you want to offer a 30 year lease, ill buy more to lease to you.

Anyways, evem if those are off by a factor of 10; that is a huge win for the property owner.

So, got some friends, running right around 800 acres of low quality cattle land, some of it scrub woods, some low quality pasture. They do a bit better than pay the taxes on it off the operation, maybe +$30-$60k/year (depending on year). If you could lock up a $1k/year/acre for 30 years; that changes a whole family tree of wealth.

Seems like Florida would do well with some of that.

The Long Term Cash-Flow analysis sort of depends on what projected rate of inflation is used. $1000 a Month, or $1000 per year . . . could become rather worthless by the end of 30 years.

 

[paulsharvey]

You can bet there are 100,000s of acres of marginal grazing land, thats worth like $10/acre/year around the country, that if you offered $500/acre/year, people would be all over it. Yes, it needs to be near transmission lines to make it feasible.

Without knowing for sure, I would assume the lease contract has a nominal price increase per year; or a large initial payment (maybe 25% upfront, and then 75% of the next 30 years?), and then annual lease payments; maybe that Average $1000/acre/year over 30. Its going to be hard to find any agricultural activity that produces a Profit of $1000/acre/year. So niche, high labor thing, some years, maybe, but mass production, year after year, no.

Edit: I dont just mean in Utah or West Texas; think of what used to be dairy farms in New York, or cattle land just 30 miles south of Orlando metro; or many other large, growing cities. Atlanta, Denver, ect, there is land within 50 miles, that likely is more valuable generating power, than as kinda low quality farms.

 

[Phil Timmons]

Time will tell on some projects. Here is one where the only people that made out on the project were the moronic engineers who designed and worked on this project. Now the taxpayers and the utility customers are left paying for it. Killing more birds than wind, displaced the native wildlife, destroyed the land, and never lived up to projections, but hey, it's green energy.

Obama-backed $2.2B green energy 'boondoggle' leaves taxpayers on the hook

Dear Lawd, that was a test case from over 20 years ago. Mirrors and Boiling water for steam. About as out of date and dumb as more (steam and turbine) Coal, Nukes or Gas. Spain was then doing the Mirrors successfully back then, so US did a test case. In the meanwhile Solar PV came in and has taken the market.

The World (most of it -- US is still a little "r-word" that means slow) is moving on to Solid State Solar PV. No moving parts. Just sits in the Sun making Electricity and Money for the next 40 years.

If you want to see stupid and bad use of "Taxpayer Money," consider the present episodes of US Pirates of the Caribbean (or Gulf of Morons, or whatever it is called today) and Gulf of Oil in the Middle East. All For Oil.

That is looting US for Massive and climbing numbers. (now into, $100B(s)). US could just go off Oil, and go back to the Top of the World economically, and ME would just sink back into the Sand for another 1000 years. Instead, US is doubling down on Dumb. Here comes another casino bankruptcy.

 

[JJT]

I would Think those lease rates are wrong, but if not... Guys, anyone wants to bulldoze my woods, and my house, and do anything they want with it for $1000/month/acre, PM me. Heck, if you want to offer a 30 year lease, ill buy more to lease to you.

Anyways, evem if those are off by a factor of 10; that is a huge win for the property owner.

So, got some friends, running right around 800 acres of low quality cattle land, some of it scrub woods, some low quality pasture. They do a bit better than pay the taxes on it off the operation, maybe +$30-$60k/year (depending on year). If you could lock up a $1k/year/acre for 30 years; that changes a whole family tree of wealth.

Land leases here are ~$1,500/acre/year. It's a no brainer for the farmer that's getting a few hundred dollars per acre per year growing silage or corn.

We don't have any prime ag land but that doesn't stop the tree huggers from complaining about the loss of ag land, they support solar, just not near them.

 

[Phil Timmons]

So what ur saying is it was a good idea to finally get rid of the tax credit for EVs? Sure

However subidies for solar has not gone away yet. That doesn't run out until JULY larry. We will see what happens after that.

Who cares what china is doing. We compare ourselves to them all the time. Fun fact. China built more coal plants than the entire world did in 5 years

IF the US would stop ALL Energy Market and EV v. ICE manipulations -- including Oil, Nukes, Coal, Gas, Wind, Hydro, and now Solar PV -- US would already be running near the top with China and have more much more Solar PV and EVs, already.

Presently Solar PV is paying more taxes than any other. US Solar PV is paying a 50% Punitive Tariff (Biden, not Trump) and still out-running the rest. Meanwhile, Oil is paying 0% Tariff. US Oil, Coal and Nukes have tended to be MASSIVE US Freeloaders. And low-cost EVs are paying a 100% Punitive Tariffs.

Meanwhile, your Fun (not fact) FUD. What China is doing is massive REPLACEMENT of Old (Very Dirty) Coal Plants, with new, relatively clean(er) plants. Overall Coal use in China has been near flat for the last 10+ years. While "run-time" (aka Capacity Factor) has dropped from 70% to around 50%.

At the same time, China is leading the World in both Renewable Manufacturing AND Install. The plan ahead is to just let the Coal drop down ahead, and have the (then old, now new) plants just sit back as stand-by.

Quick Summary:
China = Smart.
US = not so much.

Backgrounder of what is going on THIS Decade >>>

Analysis: Coal power drops in China and India for first time in 52 years after clean-energy records - Carbon Brief

Coal power generation fell in both China and India in 2025, after each nation added record amounts of clean energy

www.carbonbrief.org

 

[John0829]

However subidies for solar has not gone away yet.

Yeah, like the ones for oil.