Will UAW Strike?

[hiddentacocatneddih]

I would love an ev but I keep my vehicles 10+ years and drive 104 miles a day. My last car was sort of an exception but it was free and I drove it from 269k to 340k miles.

My current work car we got in 2014.

I just can risk battery replacement. Plus my price limit for a work car is free or be paid for hand me down mini van from the wife.

It would take me 10-15 years for an EV to pay back.

We considered the plug in hybrid van but it was $10k+ price hike to save 1 gallon of gas every drive since 99% of our trips would be beyond the battery range

 

[Gale Hawkins]

Sounds like your plan is working fine for your needs. It may be 2050 before you will consider moving to an EV.

Today EVs make more sense for someone who are set to buy a new car at the average new car price today. The lower after purchase costs associated with EVs can appeal to retires with a fixed income.

If everyone today wanted to run out and buy a new $40-$50K Tesla the wait would be 10+ years. If everyone wanted a new $25K Tesla car to be shipping in 2025 the wait may be more like 25 years.

Death will come to most of us before there's an EV for everyone.

 

[2manyrocks]

Gale

Gas prices have zero impact on long term viability because everyone knows, prices go up and down. People even know prices change due to seasonality circumstances. They know gas is a sunk cost and it's just a cost of ownership. Just like cost of electricity is a sunk cost to EV owners, what ever the cost is, it has to be paid.

I also think long term used car prices for EV will be trash. Most buyers of used cars are of the lower income demographic. They will not demand used EV's due to used up batteries and the cost to put in charging stations. Watch, the long term used car EV market will be lower than the used car market for ICE. A lower income person with see an ICE as much better financial sense than a used EV.

There are tons of head winds facing the EV. If we don't see a drastic technical breakthrough in battery tech...EV's are a dead man walking.

There was a Nissan Leaf for sale here with less than 50k miles for about $3500 about a year or 18 months ago. When I looked into it, the dealer would charge $500 just to test it to tell me what battery pack was in it and whether any replacement was available. So I couldn't even determine if a replacement battery was available much less what it would cost without paying the dealer $500.

From what I could estimate without going through the dealer, the replacement battery would have been $8,000-10,000, no aftermarket batteries available, the vehicle range with a new battery would still be something like 100-120 miles, and the battery would degrade over time such that the car would be back to having about a 40 mile range within a few years. Operating the car on hills with either the heat or AC really reduced the driving range from what I could determine.

Might have been fine to get groceries if you lived in town and only drove in town, but you could find yourself needing a tow truck if you drove it between cities not starting out with a full charge, got stuck in traffic or whatever as time went on and the battery capacity diminished.

And the Nissan Leaf was the precious darling of the internet when it first came out.

Saw another one for sale for $4,500 a week ago with not that many miles on it.

A low income person used to be able to keep a beater gas car running by spending a few hundred here and there. It would be much harder for them to come up with $8,000-10,000 all at once to replace a battery pack.

 

[Torvy]

Sounds like your plan is working fine for your needs. It may be 2050 before you will consider moving to an EV.

Today EVs make more sense for someone who are set to buy a new car at the average new car price today. The lower after purchase costs associated with EVs can appeal to retires with a fixed income.

If everyone today wanted to run out and buy a new $40-$50K Tesla the wait would be 10+ years. If everyone wanted a new $25K Tesla car to be shipping in 2025 the wait may be more like 25 years.

Death will come to most of us before there's an EV for everyone.

I think the only way it is good for retirees is if they think the battery will outlive them. I've never had to replace an engine, though I'm sure it happens. It is 100% inevitable that the batteries will need replacing. Those of us who keep cars long term will be hosed by this when we have no choices left.

The good news is that gas prices will drop when all you city folk are not demanding it.

 

[2manyrocks]

If my search results are factually accurate, the 2010 Leaf had a starting sticker price of $32,780. I would think a car with 50,000 miles on it would still have a good amount of life left in it, but the guy trying to sell his for $3,500 apparently didn't have much luck. I saw it for sale by a dealer later so I doubt he got much in trade.

Even if you could buy the battery pack for say $8,000, who puts an $8,000 battery pack in a car that just sold for $3,500? Would you buy one not knowing if you could even get another battery pack or what it would cost in another 10 years?

edit: for perspective, the base 2023 Toyota Camry MSRP is apparently $27,415 compared to the Leaf's list of $32,780 in 2010 if my search results are factually accurate.

 

[ultrarunner]

There was a Nissan Leaf for sale here with less than 50k miles for about $3500 about a year or 18 months ago. When I looked into it, the dealer would charge $500 just to test it to tell me what battery pack was in it and whether any replacement was available. So I couldn't even determine if a replacement battery was available much less what it would cost without paying the dealer $500.

From what I could estimate without going through the dealer, the replacement battery would have been $8,000-10,000, no aftermarket batteries available, the vehicle range with a new battery would still be something like 100-120 miles, and the battery would degrade over time such that the car would be back to having about a 40 mile range within a few years. Operating the car on hills with either the heat or AC really reduced the driving range from what I could determine.

Might have been fine to get groceries if you lived in town and only drove in town, but you could find yourself needing a tow truck if you drove it between cities not starting out with a full charge, got stuck in traffic or whatever as time went on and the battery capacity diminished.

And the Nissan Leaf was the precious darling of the internet when it first came out.

Saw another one for sale for $4,500 a week ago with not that many miles on it.

A low income person used to be able to keep a beater gas car running by spending a few hundred here and there. It would be much harder for them to come up with $8,000-10,000 all at once to replace a battery pack.

It may happen sooner as the new push is to restrict vehicles pre 1978 and offer low income incentives for electric.

This is in California where as a rule cars don’t rust out… lots of classic and special interest cars tucked away…

Imagine having your pride and joy muscle car and with the stroke of a pen you become an outlaw for driving it?

Wait a minute… it’s already happened with gas blowers and trimmers and commercial use of diesels over certain hp.

 

[5030]

Somewhat but not 100% and I'm glad of that. Concerning tractors, once the EPA gets involved, it's all down hill.

That green new deal is subject to change when a new administration is installed in DC. It's all 99% bunko far as I'm concerned.

 

[Snobdds]

I don't think Newsom understands how viscerally hated he is outside of CA.

CA is in decline as a micro society. It just looks miserable there. The weather is not able to overcome that...

Kids, one party rule kills democracy.

 

[ultrarunner]

It’s net zero emission behind just about every aspect which can be all encompassing.

With many cars pre 1978 I hope the die isn’t cast.

 

[2manyrocks]

I guess they'll exempt Hollywood from using classic cars in movies or will they have to convert them to EV?

 

[5030]

Don't much care as I refrain from watching Hollywierd stuff anyway.

 

[sd455dan]

It may happen sooner as the new push is to restrict vehicles pre 1978 and offer low income incentives for electric.

This is in California where as a rule cars don’t rust out… lots of classic and special interest cars tucked away…

Imagine having your pride and joy muscle car and with the stroke of a pen you become an outlaw for driving it?

Wait a minute… it’s already happened with gas blowers and trimmers and commercial use of diesels over certain hp.

Barrett Jacksons Scottsdale January auction was in excess of 190 million in sales for a single event.

If a state thinks they can legislate out investment quality vehicles they will have a Real fight on their hands.

 

[JasperFrank]

Interesting that Ford is losing money hand and fist building E-150's, the cost of which is being subsidized by an inflated suggested price of the F-150s. At least that is what I just heard on NPR. Toyota, I believe, is on the right path. As the second largest automobile maker in the world, they have very smart people making future decisions. In ten years, the Chinese are going to dump very inexpensive EVs in to the American and world markets, and we're going to wonder what the hell happened....

 

[hiddentacocatneddih]

My dad worked at a dealer that took a leaf in years back on a trade. The batteries were bad and needed replaced. At the time it was in the range of $10k plus labor. The car was worth like $7500 in minit condition. They also couldnt find a place to take it as scrap so they used it as a golf kart since it was effectively stuck in limp mode until they found someone to take it

 

[Snobdds]

Tesla faces the same issue. Will anyone buy a used Tesla with a degraded battery knowing a huge expense is around the corner?

Every car is a consumable item given enough time. However EV's might have changed the equation to being a consumable in a much shorter time period.

Nothing about the economics of EV over the long run make any sense and violate all laws of economics.

 

[Snobdds]

Leading auto analyst Adam Jonas effectively says Detroit should reconsider (abandon?) EVs plans and leave the upcoming fight in that market to Tesla v China. VW CEO sounded alarm yesterday. Detroit 3 “D3” next? Fascinating times.

 

[riptides]

Leading auto analyst Adam Jonas effectively says Detroit should reconsider (abandon?) EVs plans and leave the upcoming fight in that market to Tesla v China. VW CEO sounded alarm yesterday. Detroit 3 “D3” next? Fascinating times.

Solar panels all over again.

Invent, produce, divest, get swamped, whine.

 

[NoTrespassing]

Tesla faces the same issue. Will anyone buy a used Tesla with a degraded battery knowing a huge expense is around the corner?

Every car is a consumable item given enough time. However EV's might have changed the equation to being a consumable in a much shorter time period.

Nothing about the economics of EV over the long run make any sense and violate all laws of economics.

I've been told Tesla batteries last forever, don't worry about it.

 

[Snobdds]

Solar panels all over again.

Invent, produce, divest, get swamped, whine.

Probably the most favorable outcome for the “D3” is to abandon.

China is most definitely going to deliberately fight with the EV industry because they control ~63% of the capacity to produce batteries for EVs. It’s business 101 to increase profits via raw material monopolies.

The D3 wants no part of that arms race.

 

[5030]

Think I posted previously that I was up at Ford Rouge Assembly for a visit, I know personally more than one tech at Fords SVO operations which is part of the Rouge (non steel producing complex as Fords divested itself of the steel making operation and sold that off to Servistal which is of course offshore owned (no surprise there as only offshore entities have the capital today)

But the holding lots around the complex are extremely loaded with the electric powered F150's and E-Stangs as well and I do hope none of them combust as they had that very issue a few months ago and the Dearborn fire department was not equipped to extinguish them, but then who really is? Least the pickup trucks actually look like pickup trucks sort of. The E-Stangs are fugly and certainly don't carry on the heritage of the real pony cars. Basically just an electric Escape with some sheet metal changes and of course a very inflated price, just like the electric trucks.

My impression of a pickup truck is, if it has 4 doors (mine does) it has to have at least a 6 foot cargo box, preferably an 8 foot box, not the tiny 5 foot or less cargo soccer mom bed they produce today and of course the highly inflated price as well. When the autoworkers cannot afford to buy them, that says something about their products.