Mostly I think it arises from demand charges for distribution, and the last (pick a number) number of miles often gets congested. Implicit in that is that, yes, folks are still running HVAC systems in the central and southern part of the state until midnight-ish before the night time radiation cooling causes the air temperatures to drop. So, HVAC demand, plus a distribution surcharge.
Sorry for the slow response back. Figured this was a really good post you had, and was worth (my perspective) some more serious discussion.
Yeah, understand on the Thermal Lag aspects. Typically at Solar Noon is the most intense heat of the day, but like an oven warming up, the outdoor temperature and building cooling load keeps rising into the afternoon, typically up to about 4 PM, and then things stay warm(er) a while after. The Thermal Lag is generally dropping off by 9 PM?
[for anyone following along -- what we call "Solar Noon" -- is when the Sun is highest in the Sky -- which may or may not be local "Clock Noon." I think it they used to be same before Rail Roads and Time Zones, and the towne clocke and church bells matched the Sundial time, and each local town had their "own" local time.]
So the disparity between Solar Noon and Clock Noon (and all the rest of the day) can make what we see and talk about for (start / stop) Time of Use get a little wonky.
What is Solar Noon -- or I guess I should say WHEN is Solar Noon widely varies across the span from East to West of any given Time Zone (typically an hour wide or more) along with "daylight savings" offsetting things by an hour additionally.
But I am still stuck on why yours [TOU Peak] goes until Midnight.
California has inadvertently made a double mess of all this because part of the prior "solution" to use less TOTAL energy was "set back Thermostats." That helped create the late day and early evening "Rush Hour-ish" Peak to start with.
Now with Cheap and Surplus Solar PV -- it makes more sense to just turn on ALL the A/C (empty house or not) during the daily Solar PV Peak and chill the buildings down and "coast" into the evening? Sort of a physical Cold Air, Building and Contents "Thermal Battery?"
So, in general, yes, that is the math. Left out of that are a couple of factors I think.
The solar array needs to be close enough to a main transmission line to make a feeder line possible, and cost effective.
The transmission line has to have free capacity to take the solar output.
Then you have to account for the losses between the generation site and the customers.
Then you have to account for the transmission, distribution, administrative costs for all of the electric companies between the solar array and the customer.
All of this gets to why certain solar sites are more profitable, are desirable. You can put one anywhere, but due to NIMBY for transmission lines, or utilities unwilling to take power that they don't control, it doesn't mean you can get the power off the property. In the future, that may mean that the PV farm converts the electricity into something valuable on site, like converting biomass to liquid fuel / CO2 to natural gas / hydrogen / mini steel mill / aluminum plant. I could spin a bunch of uses if the 20yr kWh cost is on the order of $1/kWh. Most planners are still coloring well within the lines to my way of thinking.
Understood. Grid Engineer for too many years, now. Those are cost components of a Retail Price. But none that is not about Time-of-Production and Time-of-Use alignment?
Putting PV powered hydrogen plants in the Permian basin would enable the shipment of crude gas/oil with the hydrogen needed for refining in the downstream refining, creating more finished hydrocarbons per barrel of oil input.
Well (hahaha, Oil Well). Hydrogen for off-site use . . . maybe not. Have-been-there-done-that on some of that. But whole different topic and post.
But as a straight up, if you put the PV on your property to charge the vehicles on the farm, and for farm power, yes.
Sure. We have that part down easy. And largely avoiding batteries -- HUGE money bonus to do this without Large Batteries.
The limits to gasoline/ ethanol blends gets into seals and tubing above E15. You can build an E100 engine; but it will require different materials. E100 is higher octane, but lower energy, so that is also a tuning issue, but these are all well researched and solved problems. Fermentation is a bit more complicated than tossing some corn in water these days, and farm sized ethanol fuel plants are less efficient due to things like increased energy losses due to rather small plant sizes, but you could very much do it. Regulatory paperwork for ethanol can vary by state and by output, so that may be an added cost.
For our operation - Ethanol would not be a primary source -- instead sort of novelty (by intent), that meets some of "spec" theme parts* (of local Ethanol v. Corporate Oil) of this game. For Ethanol -- not working towards nor any desire for perfection -- in our case, "Good Enough is Good Enough." Will explain below.*
If you decide to go down that path, I would very much keep biogas methane as part of that project. Biogas as tractor fuel requires gas cleaning and compression, but again, doable.
I think a lot of the on farm fuel generation gets into what can be done at a very particular site, with low labor inputs, and low capital inputs that make it pencil out.
There's a large dairy (
Fair Oaks) in Indiana that makes biogas to run the dairy and exports excess gas off the property. I know of a few sites in the Midwest where this happens, but it seems to revolve around one farm having the wherewithal to build it for their operation, and for many sites, the optimal biomass capacity number creates excess biogas that can be sold to neighboring properties or businesses.
Whether these operations pencil out gets into the nitty gritty of the cost of capital, labor, and material, vs the alternatives. It doesn't pencil out for everyone. I worked on a ranch that built one in the seventies, and I know simple biogas fermenters on farms were widespread in rural Indian and China in the sixties. It is an old idea, but not without issues.
That one. I do not think I can touch that. Have done Bio-Gas (humanure, no less) up into the 5 MW generation range at a local sewer treatment site. It works okay-ish -- the fuel has some issues with Sulfur. Bacteria and such make some nasty.
Really reminded me of using Flare Gas on refinery sites -- the EPA was pushing us back when I worked Petro-Chem and Refinery to bring Flare Gas back into the plant and burn in Process. We did so, but there was some "ickk," about all that. (Flare Gas has some real nasty -- there is a reason it is up on a 300 foot tower).
Like I say, the Bio-Gas stuff -- it is okay, and have studied the small stove site use that is somewhat popular in India -- but not anything I would want to touch on an experimental site for rated* food production.
Part of the model we are working from includes Veggie-Vegan*, along with a BUNCH of (no Chem, no Genetic, on and on) other Marketing Aspects. Using Bio-Gas from a (Purity Perspective) Animal Prison-Torture Holocaust Site -- is going to harm the brand.
* [Yeah, I know, if folks following along do not get this, they just do not get this. It is not because you are smart or inspired or somehow better. You just do not understand the marketing. Maybe think if you were producing and selling for an Orthodox Jewish wealthy clientele. And they want Kosher. And are happy to pay premium for Kosher. You are going to produce Kosher. Or Muslims with Halal. Or even better example -- Americans with eating Dogs and Cats. If you want to sell food in the US -- you do NOT include parts and pieces of Dogs and Cats. This is the same game, with a different name.]
Yeah, I've been involved in this for a few years.
All the best,
Peter
Understood. Thanks, muchly.