Thoughts on mega wind and solar projects

[Phil Timmons]

2. No battery required, nor really desired. It is called Grid-Tie? You must have heard of this? Solar Folks send the surplus up to the Grid during the day (high grid demand time), and then get electricity back at night (surplus grid time). Win-Win for all sides.

In the East, it's called net metering. We had it and it worked great. fast forward to today, some electric companies are shutting that option down. I'm guessing here, but their profits are higher if they shut it down. It wouldn't have made sence for us to go solar when we did if net metering wasn't a factor.

It is called Net Metering here, and most of the US, as well -- generally when Full Credit is given on a 1:1 send and receive at full retail both ways. So that is sort of a sub-set of overall Grid-Tie.

Some areas do what is called "Avoided Cost" (for the Utility) when the small local Solar PV is credited at wholesale price when Solar is sent UP to the Grid, and then charged full retail price for Electricity is taken FROM the Grid.

And then a few areas, only charge Full Retail from the Grid and give NO Credit for Solar sent UP. For many folks, even in this condition, continue Grid Tie to use the Grid as a back up, or small use overnight.

But even those are not the end of complications. To figure out what is the BEST method -- folks still need to consider Time-of-Use plans, and how meter fees and connection fees tie in.

But with all those combinations -- no local batteries are required, but some folks want batteries as a back-up system. Thinking about it all, we have even done some Solar PV sites - without batteries - but add a small local generator, because the customer needs that level of backup around the clock.

In an ideal world, folks would figure out what is best for everyone, and learn to share from their surplus, and accept help as needed. True "Give-and-Take" as it were. However, that tends to cut at least some "Cash Flow" from the Bottom-End to the Top-End investor(s) at the Central Plant(s).

The severe outcome of that is called "Grid Defection" when local folks decide to just disconnect from the Grid (called "Off Grid"), even where the Grid is available. We are starting to see this in California. The severe outcome of this is if the Utility runs off about 10% or more of their customers the Utility may become unprofitable -- and raise prices on the remaining customers -- running off more customers. This is what is the real "Utility Death Spiral."

In the Grid Defection Case, (as well as less than "Net Metering") folks may often try to align their own Time-of-Use with their local Time-of-Production. At most sites we do this with -- easily hit around 70% alignment. That means about 70% of the site's daily use occurs during the 6 to 8 hours of Solar PV production. Doing some projects this Spring Semester at school where we are targeting 90% alignment or more.

 

[Phil Timmons]

Only thing I question, is obviously those that sounds right, and I dont argue July being highest, but I "think" you have random spikes higher, much less predictable, for short periods during Jan.

I dont think ive ever heard of customers being asked to moderate use in July; but a few weeks ago, they did request customers to moderate heat.

Edit: I am surprised to find that only 41% of US homes use electric heat (in multiple forms) as primary heat, and that 47% use gas (propane or natural gas). Natural gas just isnt that available to the home in my part of the world, and (not me) many people dont want it, and actually consider it a negative. Me, if gas distribution came through, I would 100% hook up. Not heat, but stove and biggest would be water heater. Heat pump is fine, it might struggle 5 days per year, but space heaters bridge that gap.

During that bad cold span when it got down to 17, we did keep a fire going in fire place, and it made a real difference.

Yeah, a lot folks have a lot of different perceptions -- which is pretty much why we try to start from understanding and being able to hit the Peak. And then there is also some Peak trimming like requested lower-use, and we even have some industrial sites that have "Peak Shaver" local generation (just idle back-up most of the time), that comes on when premium prices go up.

On the other end of things is the low(er) use time(s), again in all sections of the US this is generally Spring and Fall (no or little Heating and Cooling), and in all sections and seasons -- overnight. Attached is a graphic the US EIA put together a few years ago for the overall US, but the pattern(s) work for all the various sections of US, as well.

Again, if interested, let me know you made it this far, and we can do Time-of-Use and Time-of-Production, because they also play heavy into how low the true baseload is or can get.