With split system heat pumps i would not go below the 16 kw current line, which will soon be 18kw. Seeing as hes all gas appliances i see no issues with loads you stated. Nat gas always cuts the output some with the generators anyways. Without the mini splits a 13 (soon to be 14kw) would probably work. Going bigger is always preferable because no one knows what may be added in future, that and a larger gen operating at 25-50% output gets better fuel efficiency than a small unit running full out. Last power outage we had lasted 14 hours and my 22kw averaged 5.8 kw and burnt 19.66 gal of fuel. Outage was mostly during the daytime and normally I would not have even run it except the wife had her quilting group meeting going on in basement. Have to keep her happy.
if the current ac system is a heat pump, you may need a 22kw, but it would depend on tonnage of unit and age of unit.