Duration from Rumor to Real

[ADin]

As I'm currently on the fence between buying a 4110 and waiting to at least hear info on the impending new models (2X2X ??), I'm looking for guidance from some of the veterans here who have seen this process unfold before.

I would normally expect rumors on new models to be followed by credible leaks of real information, followed by official announcements, followed by true availability.

My question: As JD seems to be able to control information pretty tightly, is there a historical rule of thumb in the duration from the time of credible leaks of real information and/or official announcements to actual shipping availability of product. I realize the rumor phase is an indeterminate time period, but leaks typically start as the rollout process (at least internally) requires furthur distribution of committed information to broaded audience (e.g. dealers). Does JD announce product weeks/months before availability or days/weeks?

My main reason is given that it's now early May, I'm trying to decide best case/worst case senarios.

One senario for example (probably best case) is that true leaks of information start appearing over the next week or two, official announcement sometime early June and maybe a tractor on my lawn sometime in July.

A second senario is continued speculation most of May, leaks May/June, announcement perhaps July, availability late August/Sept in very limited quantity and only to tier one dealers, and finally tractor in lawn for last cut of the season.

Obviously there are infinite variations here but which of the above has a 70% chance of being accurate as the latter effectively looses the 2005 year for playing in the dirt and I might be inclined to go the plunge for a 4110 now versus waiting one month to decide my options.

Murphy's law says my decision will be wrong in either case but I would kick myself if I plunged too quickly and missed the opportunity to get a cup holder on the 4110 replacements

 

[2nstonge]

ADin,

I can't answer your specific question but that won't stop me from responding!

My experience has been when new products are finally production released - even by the best of companies - there's a period where they're still tweaking the production & quality processes and working the kinks out. This process never really stops but early on 'change orders' can be issued daily. Might be a couple months or maybe a whole lot longer but the early production units always have some issues. Add to that dealer inexperience in actually diagnosing or working on these new models and the owner frustration factor can be high. The guy with the latest and greatest model is really the guinea pig for the entire supply chain. This isn't JD specific, this is every company I ever worked for.

If you gotta have a tractor now and have little patience for the new model release process the 4110 - in my 40hr experience so far - is a solid workhorse. But, if you don't mind waiting a cup holder sure would be nice. /forums/images/graemlins/smirk.gif

-Norm

 

[beenthere]

I'd suggest talking to your Deere dealer. He may let you in on some secrets he is sworn to not reveal, and he may not. But letting him know your future thoughts, you may get some inkling from him in an indirect way that will help you.

Supplying all Deere dealers with new models (most want them right away) must require a pretty good number of tractors off the assembly line and ready to be shipped.
I don't buy into this idea that the early ones off the line are not ready to go and have troubles, as Deere will take good care of the customer (that was my experience when I bought the early 4300 which I still have). Deere didn't just start making tractors. /forums/images/graemlins/wink.gif

 

[rockyridgefarm]

I am with beenthere. There are probably several holding yards already loaded up with machine right now. Then they will get to the dealers about the same time. Works that way in the car biz.

 

[2nstonge]

I'll bet there are delivery yards of new model tractors waiting to be shipped - it's easy to turn the key and fire up the assembly line. I spent 20+ years in engineering and manufacturing environments for several companies; from high-volume consumer products to very specialized high-end machine tool equipment that might sell 15-20 units in a year. The common denominator is that the REAL test of the metal is once it's out in the real world, in a paying customers hands. No lab or tractor test driver (is there such a job?) will replicate the uses and abuses us end-users will put a tractor through. I didn't mean to insuate that the lots are full of lemons, just that early production models of ANY product in ANY business have a better chance for a higher incidence of problems. Only the original poster can gauge his tolerance for waiting for the 'rumored' new model and, after waiting, what his reactions might be IF (big IF) his new baby has early production hiccups and then IF (another big IF) his local JD service guy is seeing it for the first time. I'd be bummed, but that's me.

Deere is a very good company, strong support and service and no doubt will make things right for customers that do encounter problems. That was a huge factor in my decision to go green - and stay green when I traded up. Since I use my tractor in my business these days I went with a model that had a couple of years under its belt - it'll still have issues but everyone knows what they'll most likely be. Care to count how many threads still pop up about 4000 series battery leakage? Seems like that should've been caught & fixed in the past couple of years but it still rears its ugly head on occasion - but at least the fix is common knowledge.

-Norm

BTW: My dealer is by no stretch a tier 1 (or even a tier 2), he won't see new models on his lot for 3-4 months after their initial release.