So I went to the house last night to consult with the owner regarding the cutout.  It appeared the swarm was just moving in, they were still very unorganized and swarmy.  I took a swarm trap with me, in case it was an easy scoop and run.  I left the trap under the overhang where the bees were entering the house when I left.  Today I got a video from the owner showing a lot of activity entering and exiting the trap.  Wouldnt it be WILD if they changed their mind and just took up camp in my box?  I’ll check back in a couple days, and I have doubts, but a guy can dream!
Update.  The owner reports maybe 5-10 bees near the opening under the soffit.  Yesterday it was hundreds.  All the activity is at the box