Tractor Shortages

[JWR]

Can't really give an honest opinion without getting a "timeout". Yes, the world has always had diverse politics but things have changed dramatically in the past 5 years or so. People are no longer allowed to have frank and open discussions anymore. If you say something that is not part of the official narrative you lose your speaking privileges. This is what America has become and even this simple, honest statement will likely be removed and my account locked. But yes, I agree with you that the pandemic has been used to create a whole new world.

TBN has the "snooping into discussions disease" like all public forums these days ... but not THAT bad Indy.

 

[Larry D Johnson]

I just ran into some shortages getting parts for our old John Deere, and like a lot of us, it got me to wondering where this is going to lead.
Right now the shortages are novel, but becoming more of a problem every day. That makes now a good time to discuss things.

Some might say politics was a cause, but I think that was minor. Historically, the world has always had diverse politics and decent trade going along at the same time in spite of each other.

In my mind the big trigger for the shortages was the worldwide pandemic. It took a pandemic to show us just how fragile world's modern manufacturing and distribution system really is.

Right now I'm wondering if this really is just a problem just for a few years and then back to normal..... or will the shortages create a whole different world? And what would a different world trade look like for tractor owners?
rScotty

John Deere has also been on strike.

 

[rScotty]

TBN has the "snooping into discussions disease" like all public forums these days ... but not THAT bad Indy.

I agree with that. All the forums are doing it, some more than others. TBN seems to be about middle of the road, which seems a reasonable place to be while we figure this new world out. I was personally surprised at how many people have taken extreme stands on all kinds of formerly debateable issues.

I also agree that the pandemic showed us all some of the real problems in our world that have been ignored for too long. Everyday it seems we are horrified at another example of the lack of care or concern that people have for one another.

BTW, just to take a stand myself - I don't agree with anyone who thinks that the pandemic itself was deliberately used to "create a whole new world".
I see it as a challenge, not a conspiracy.

rScotty

 

[Blue Mule]

Side note that I find funny....

Prior to the COVID government panic, there were compact tractors everywhere. Sitting on lots wherever you looked. I saw a LOT of tractors sit on lots for 1-2 years before being purchased. Heck, the one I bought new in February 2021 was manufactured in the summer of 2019. Seems like supply was much greater than demand.

Once the COVID government panic ensued everybody and their brother decided they need to buy a new tractor, so now you can't find one.

For some reason that just strikes me as funny. Fear is a strong force.

 

[priberc]

Well here is my .25c worth on this. The reason is two fold. #1, just in time delivery. IE no one carries any more inventory than needed...if possible never ever carry stock longer than 30 days. #2 Like it or not at #1 China manufactures 29% of every manufactured product on the planet. The US is a distant #2 at 7 or18%. That manufacturing gap will not change any time soon if ever. How will this pan out....time will tell. But IMO manufacturing returning to the US is good political hay. It is not based in reality. Reality being the work force is not there in the numbers needed. Whois gonna work in the new factories? Pre covid the US seem the lowest unemployment rates in decades. Just regular manufacturing growth. Where would the people come from to work in the new factories? Immigration is a no go these days and the US is not making enough babies to maintain the population.....the term cant have your cake and eat it too comes to mind

 

[Andrus]

I just ran into some shortages getting parts for our old John Deere, and like a lot of us, it got me to wondering where this is going to lead.
Right now the shortages are novel, but becoming more of a problem every day. That makes now a good time to discuss things.

Some might say politics was a cause, but I think that was minor. Historically, the world has always had diverse politics and decent trade going along at the same time in spite of each other.

In my mind the big trigger for the shortages was the worldwide pandemic. It took a pandemic to show us just how fragile world's modern manufacturing and distribution system really is.

Right now I'm wondering if this really is just a problem just for a few years and then back to normal..... or will the shortages create a whole different world? And what would a different world trade look like for tractor owners?
rScotty

Yes, I think the pandemic was the immediate cause, but there may be a deeper structural issue that exacerbated the delays in the supply chain. I'm just winging it here, but I wonder if the philosophy of "Just in Time" is a part of the problem. Just in Time works great,...when everything is humming along, but introduce something like the pandemic and it all goes haywire. I was just in Brooklyn, New York and I saw these unbelievably big warehouses, lots of them, built in the 20th century, now largely empty or being converted into artists lofts, party spaces, even indoor soccer fields, because nobody stores huge amounts of stuff anymore. A corporation has a whole tree of suppliers, and each of them get their parts from a smaller tree of suppliers, "Just in time". It makes sense because storing materials or parts is expensive,...but when you introduce a couple of bottle necks into those many supply trees,...trouble ensues. Attached is a photo of just one half of the Brooklyn Army Terminal, and there are many, many more warehouses of similar gigantic size.

 

[ljjhouser]

I just ran into some shortages getting parts for our old John Deere, and like a lot of us, it got me to wondering where this is going to lead.
Right now the shortages are novel, but becoming more of a problem every day. That makes now a good time to discuss things.

Some might say politics was a cause, but I think that was minor. Historically, the world has always had diverse politics and decent trade going along at the same time in spite of each other.

In my mind the big trigger for the shortages was the worldwide pandemic. It took a pandemic to show us just how fragile world's modern manufacturing and distribution system really is.

Right now I'm wondering if this really is just a problem just for a few years and then back to normal..... or will the shortages create a whole different world? And what would a different world trade look like for tractor owners?
rScotty

It really makes us wonder if other countries are experiencing the same shortages and wait times. I think the biggest concern is the possibility that most retailers and dealers after this will find comfort in operating a "Order when needed" parts operation. If that is the case, you can bring in your tractor and the service wait time will be increased to include acquisition of parts, and none from inventory. Having a good inventory not only cost the price of holding parts, but a lot of storage space. I hope I am wrong. We are so used to going to the dealer and picking up a bearing or seal etc. I hope there is a return to normal.

My Kubota dealer was in the process of building an new building. All the excavating was completed. Then the tractor shortage began here. Then everything stopped. It was supposed to open a year ago last March. We will see what happens.

 

[JWR]

I agree with that. All the forums are doing it, some more than others. TBN seems to be about middle of the road, which seems a reasonable place to be while we figure this new world out. I was personally surprised at how many people have taken extreme stands on all kinds of formerly debateable issues.

I also agree that the pandemic showed us all some of the real problems in our world that have been ignored for too long. Everyday it seems we are horrified at another example of the lack of care or concern that people have for one another.

BTW, just to take a stand myself - I don't agree with anyone who thinks that the pandemic itself was deliberately used to "create a whole new world".
I see it as a challenge, not a conspiracy.

rScotty

Absolutely -- agree.