Corona Virus #6

[ovrszd]

The panic is caused because we do not know the numbers.

IMHO, if we did nothing and this virus raised deaths in the US by 250k, that would be tragic but "acceptable". 2,800,000 die every year now. So, less than a 10% increase. But we have no way to know what that number is going to be...so panic.

Also driving the panic is that unlike heart disease (that caused 650k deaths), someone can "catch it" and die.

Total deaths (by this virus) in the world is just under 20k...insignificant so far. My take...

We have been told this is "very infectious"
We have been told this has been present since at least Jan (3 months)
Death occurs within 2-3 weeks after first symptoms.

Unless we see a huge jump in deaths over the next 4 weeks, this is not the big deal we have been led to believe.

It is why I am only looking at the deaths....the number of cases is immaterial (unless we know the mortality rate but we do not)...but for sure the number of infected is higher than reported.

Well stated. The number of U.S. deaths I saw this morning was 544.

I try to not be led down the rabbit hole of thinking every Tom, Dick and Harry that writes an article in regards to COV-19 is offering fact. Most, if not all, are offering opinion. No different than we do here.

If I want data I go to the CDC website and my State website.

 

[rswyan]

A very well thought thru post. Being transferred to an urban area is a lot like a death sentence.

Probably depends on the specific urban area involved and what point in time it occurs ... and the available resources where one is located.

Think in terms of the next 6 months to a year or more out ...

 

[ovrszd]

Minister might not come to mine. Afraid of bursting into flames and such.

Seriously, though, I asked my wife to have me cremated and have a party at a convenient time later. As to what they'd be celebrating, my life, or my demise, is up to them. :laughing:

My best friend, like a Brother to me, told me last year he will be cremated. He wants his ashes scattered on our farm during the next Memorial Weekend wheeling event our group has here every year. Exact site to be determined by those present. I was very honored that he would think that highly of us. Knowing the history of those events it will definitely be a celebration of having him in our "family".

 

[k0ua]

My best friend, like a Brother to me, told me last year he will be cremated. He wants his ashes scattered on our farm during the next Memorial Weekend wheeling event our group has here every year. Exact site to be determined by those present. I was very honored that he would think that highly of us. Knowing the history of those events it will definitely be a celebration of having him in our "family".

Absolutely!:thumbsup:

 

[daugen]

Three months? Do they think the handout money will last that long? Looks like we'll be printing a lot of money this year.
And no one seems to worry about how we will pay it back. I also think they should have good oversight in making sure handout money
goes to the needy. Don't send some to Warren Buffet...

I'm surprised this has not yet gone nuclear in India. All those millions and millions of folks crammed in tight,
could be a huge thing for them. Hard to distance socially when you live on top of everyone else.

Time to start taking some of the tomatoes I froze from the garden last year, and put away in garage freezer, time to
make a red sauce and start using some of the pasta. Have a walk in pantry in my home about 12 feet deep. Person who built this
house went a bit overboard, but I sure can store a lot of stuff in there. Would be nice to find some hamburger though.

 

[tradosaurus]

My best friend, like a Brother to me, told me last year he will be cremated. He wants his ashes scattered on our farm during the next Memorial Weekend wheeling event our group has here every year. Exact site to be determined by those present. I was very honored that he would think that highly of us. Knowing the history of those events it will definitely be a celebration of having him in our "family".

Every time I hear about scattering ashes I think of the Big Lebowski scene. :laughing:

 

[shooterdon]

Yep. Pray for his good health. He is the only medical professional/scientist on the task force telling it like it is. And even he is not actually an epidemiologist.

The Surgeon General (of USPHS) is a toadie. Useless politically cleaned up comments.
Deborah Birks is reasonable on camera but is an long term program director type not a practicing epidemiologist. She also has to "conform" and support WH statements from people who know next to nothing about epidemiology
The Director of the CDC is missing in action. No clue why he has been sidelined as former directors like Tom Frieden have been making reasonable comments from the sidelines.
Anne Schuchat who is a deputy director at CDC with same infectious disease training as Fauci plus is a career CDC epidemiologist has been silenced.
Various Division heads at CDC (Hospital infection control, Special Pathogens, etc) are not allowed to talk.

I'm a retired pediatric infectious disease and hospital epidemiology MD who did virology research and the only people I trust speaking about this pandemic on TV are Fauci and Bill Schaffner (Vanderbilt MD who is often a spokesperson for the ID societies)

I fully understand the need to get the economy moving again but it is wrong to push that issue before we have a better handle on how fast this pandemic is moving. Economists and politicians need to be heard but to have them pushing for an early end to strict social distancing is similar to having them tell your surgeon where to make an incision or when to operate. Not who you want making the informed decisions. At some point it will be appropriate to take economic and political factors into account but right now, with cases doubling every two days in some areas, is not the time.

The issue with doctors/scientists is they will always err on the side of safety. Like I commented on an earlier post, the number of cases is not important unless we know the mortality rate. I suspect the number of cases is much higher than reported due to both lack of testing and people who have become ill but not sick enough to require treatment/testing.

The World Health Organization estimates the "normal" flu kills 290- to 650k people per year. We have 20k dead globally from Covid-19 4 months into it. And we do not know how many of these 20k (who are likely the most health compromised) would have died from the normal flu anyway.

Should we panic if 1,000,000 die of this? I think not. The H2N2 pandemic killed 1.1mm, H3N2 killed 1mm; and we survived without throwing 100's of millions of people around the globe out of work.

I still believe this not "just the flu" and we need to take additional precautions. But I am not seeing the pandemic....yet.

You are far more knowledgeable...I am simple mined. What am I missing? Trying to put things in perspective and I do not trust the hype from the MSM.

Thanks,

 

[rswyan]

COVID-19 deaths across the globe reaching 20,000 today.

How fast it happened?

First 10,000 = 60 days
Next 10,000 = 6 days

And the curve is pointed right up to the skies. People: stay indoors, governments: equip our hospitals now.

Twitter

 

[ruffdog]

They are seeing COVID-19 in the blood of patients 20-30 days after treatment. That is unprecedented. The people that recovered but still have covid in their blood may or may not be able to spread the virus. Being that this is new, they are learning new info every day.

 

[Citydude]

The issue with doctors/scientists is they will always err on the side of safety. Like I commented on an earlier post, the number of cases is not important unless we know the mortality rate. I suspect the number of cases is much higher than reported due to both lack of testing and people who have become ill but not sick enough to require treatment/testing.

The World Health Organization estimates the "normal" flu kills 290- to 650k people per year. We have 20k dead globally from Covid-19 4 months into it. And we do not know how many of these 20k (who are likely the most health compromised) would have died from the normal flu anyway.

Should we panic if 1,000,000 die of this? I think not. The H2N2 pandemic killed 1.1mm, H3N2 killed 1mm; and we survived without throwing 100's of millions of people around the globe out of work.

I still believe this not "just the flu" and we need to take additional precautions. But I am not seeing the pandemic....yet.

You are far more knowledgeable...I am simple mined. What am I missing? Trying to put things in perspective and I do not trust the hype from the MSM.

Thanks,

Very good observation and questions.