Tractors and (upcoming) tariffs?

[ultrarunner]

Go you better... for years property owners were required by law to maintain all services and tenants got a pass on paying rent.

This one act contributed greatly to the lack of rentals among the small owners getting out.

I was mandated to deal with tenant caused sewage during the lockdown without regard to no plumbers available.

I could go on but the damage done lives on...

On the flip side working at a hospital I was expected to show up everyday... so no gov payments to me...

 

[akguy09]

Wow. Restoring American oil independence? The U.S. has never been energy independent. We are producing more oil and gas today than 5+ years ago. In fact more than ever before and we’re still not energy independent. Federal lands permits are a bogus issue. Most of the high producing oil fields are on state and private lands, not federal. NM and Alaska are the primary states that have significant oil on federal lands, along with the offshore areas in the Gulf of Mexico. Almost all federal lands in NM oil fields have already been leased for years. Alaska has a significant amount of oil on federal lands in the Arctic, but so far there’s not much industry interest in operating in the Arctic because it’s extremely expensive to operate there.

Not to mention that the Company that owns the pipeline in Alaska slows down the oil flow when the prices are lower...to force a greater DEMAND.They actually have a tight hold on the oil market in the US.

 

[WM75Guy]

Using one measurement to define independence is not valid. Even when we exported more than we imported, we still were dependent on refining capability in other countries. While the U.S. does produce enough crude oil to meet our needs, we lack the storage and refining capability to utilize all of it. U.S refineries were built to refine heavy crude, which is more profitable as you get more types of products out of a barrel. What we import is heavy crude.

Since the discovery of the Permian Basin deposits of light sweet crude in West Texas and New Mexico, newer refineries and some existing refineries have been built or expanded to process it. We still cannot process or store all of the WTI that is being pumped, so some is exported to other countries for refining. We then bring back finished products, mostly gasoline and distillate fuels (diesel and fuel oil). And the net imports last week only accounted for 8% of the input to refineries.

Oil from Canada is already flowing to Texas, either by pipeline or rail. The terminated Keystone XL pipeline project was to get it there faster and in larger quantities. TC Energy (Trans-Canadian) was the builder. They terminated the project and sold off their pipeline operations. Even if a permit was approved today, no one wants to build it. The Canadian government bought and finished the Trans Mountain pipeline sending the oil to the west coast of Canada and the U.S. for shipment overseas.

Weekly Petroleum Status Report - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Keystone XL — Maps

Crude oil imports from Canada reached a record after pipeline expansion - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

 

[jyoutz]

I can't read it for you:

The answer to my question is yes (by your definition):

In 2023, the US exported more crude oil and petroleum products than it imported. Petroleum and petroleum product exports totaled about 10.15 million barrels per day (b/d), while imports were about 8.53 million b/d resulting in a -1.7 million b/d difference.Sep 24, 2024

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[ning]

The answer to my question is yes (by your definition):

In 2023, the US exported more crude oil and petroleum products than it imported. Petroleum and petroleum product exports totaled about 10.15 million barrels per day (b/d), while imports were about 8.53 million b/d resulting in a -1.7 million b/d difference.Sep 24, 2024
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Home | USAFacts › articles › is-th...

IMO there's a significant difference between "net exporter" and "independent".

If my solar panels feed more electricity back to the grid than I pull off of it, I'm a net exporter... turn off the grid and let's see if I'm independent.
While being a net exporter of oil & gas is an indication that you could be independent, it's by no means a sufficient condition.

 

[jyoutz]

IMO there's a significant difference between "net exporter" and "independent".

If my solar panels feed more electricity back to the grid than I pull off of it, I'm a net exporter... turn off the grid and let's see if I'm independent.
While being a net exporter of oil & gas is an indication that you could be independent, it's by no means a sufficient condition.

I agree. That is why I said by his definition.

 

[kw00]

Using one measurement to define independence is not valid. Even when we exported more than we imported, we still were dependent on refining capability in other countries.

Yes, but THEY were MORE dependent on our petroleum products overall than they were on ours.

While the U.S. does produce enough crude oil to meet our needs, we lack the storage and refining capability to utilize all of it. U.S refineries were built to refine heavy crude, which is more profitable as you get more types of products out of a barrel. What we import is heavy crude.

Not entirely correct. The most valuable products are very easily refined from light sweet crude. The reason U.S. light crude refineries were CONVERTED to heavy crude 50-60 years ago was because heavy oil from OPEC was so ridiculously cheap. IF our refining capacity were optimized we would be able to supply all of our own petroleum products. The thing stopping that is regulation, which has been in overdrive in recent years.

Since the discovery of the Permian Basin deposits of light sweet crude in West Texas and New Mexico, newer refineries and some existing refineries have been built or expanded to process it.

We've been producing light sweet (WTI) crude here for decades. (I'm in the Permian Basin area.) We have very old refineries out here that process it.

We still cannot process or store all of the WTI that is being pumped, so some is exported to other countries for refining. We then bring back finished products, mostly gasoline and distillate fuels (diesel and fuel oil). And the net imports last week only accounted for 8% of the input to refineries.

We export more expensive oil to other countries and import cheaper oil. We import a relatively small amount of gasoline and are to a small degree a net exporter of diesel.

Most of Canada's finished product comes from the U.S. They cannot produce nearly enough gasoline for themselves, making them dependent on us for that. They are happy to supply the raw product necessary for that.

Again, the only real limit to our independence is government overreach. Hopefully that will change soon.

 

[Lastkidpicked]

You fellas want to muddy the waters even more?

We have refineries in Montana, Washington state, and Minnesota. It is cheaper to bring in Canadian crude oil because those refineries are right on the northern border anyway. The Canadian crude is cheaper than transporting our own crude up from Texas.

So is that importation of Canadian oil good for us a whole, or bad for us?

California imports crude oil from the middle east. Why not buy it from Texas? Because it's cheaper to import it than it is to transport from Texas to California.

So is that importation of crude good for us as a whole or bad for us?

I'm genuinely interested in your answers. As an admitted nerd and proud geek, this is interesting on a mathematical level.

 

[ning]

You fellas want to muddy the waters even more?

We have refineries in Montana, Washington state, and Minnesota. It is cheaper to bring in Canadian crude oil because those refineries are right on the northern border anyway. The Canadian crude is cheaper than transporting our own crude up from Texas.

So is that importation of Canadian oil good for us a whole, or bad for us?

California imports crude oil from the middle east. Why not buy it from Texas? Because it's cheaper to import it than it is to transport from Texas to California.

So is that importation of crude good for us as a whole or bad for us?

I'm genuinely interested in your answers. As an admitted nerd and proud geek, this is interesting on a mathematical level.

It's good, in the long run, because someday we'll merge the two allegedly separate countries...
(part j/k)

 

[WM75Guy]

You bring up good points. The oil business is a global business. Going from crude oil to finished product has multiple steps. The five major steps are upstream (production), midstream (transportation & storage), downstream (refining), wholesale & retail sales. Each plays a factor in the final cost. Midstream operations are expensive, both in development and liability, and that cost is passed on to the product being moved. That is definitely factored into the decision on where to buy from, along with the type of product and cost..

We are involved in the oil business either directly from land & well ownership or indirectly from stock in multiple companies in all phases of the petroleum industry. Last year our wells produced about 6 million barrels of West Texas Intermediate crude oil from 2 production companies. We dealt with multiple companies on pipeline ROW easements and production facilities. I read lots of shareholder information on the companies we hold stock in, which are some of the major players, along with independent research.

This explains some of the decision-making process on what type of crude oil goes where.

The United States tends to produce lighter crude oil and import heavier crude oil - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Here is information on what drives crude oil prices.

Energy & Financial Markets: What Drives Crude Oil Prices? - Energy Information Administration

Current futures for WTI for 2025 are fairly flat.

 

[RayIN]

When the govment stole from the railroad retirement: My
father-in-law's neighbor worked the same job as my father-in=law the neighbor retired just before the govment stole
some of their retirement because my father-in-law received
$400 a month less than the neighbor after the govement
stole from the RR retirement fundand they both started
the same year. On retirement $400 makes a big difference

willy

Actually the federal government "borrowed" that money, it's now part of the $36+ Trillion dollars our federal government is in debt.
The largest percentage of the national debt is borrowed from assorted federal government agencies and departments, with no plan to repay.
That's the polite way of stealing.

 

[LouNY]

I too have paid into Social Security since a young age (16 for me). I was forced to retire early at 62 due to back problems. Fortunately, I had a good 401k that I started at age 26 and so am not entirely reliant upon Social Security however had I been, it would have been near impossible to live as I have been. Having done extensive research into how to manage that early retirement, considering the reduced SS benefit coupled with the high cost of healthcare until I quality for Medicare, I discovered some interesting information.

First, had the average worker been able to invest the same 12.4% of income that the government takes for SS in an IRA at a modest 8% return, most would easily top the $1 million mark by age 65. Further, rather than be at risk for the fund becoming insolvent, we would not be facing that issue as the markets have consistently posted positive returns for decades. Once you reach retirement age, it should be treated as any private IRA thus allowing you to withdraw funds to meet your financial needs and desires, rather than be pigeonholed into what they determine you may have. Plus, it's all yours or your heirs, not the governments. Finally, as it stands, once you pass away, whatever money is left is kept by the government, except in the case of survivor benefits which are often not at the full rate being paid to the original SS recipient. How many people die young and never collect benefits? If they had an IRA, it would at least go to their family or chosen heirs.

Though I agree that many people wouldn't have done this on their own, if we were required to have that same 12.4% withdrawn from our paychecks but deposited in an approved IRA that we could manage how we invest (aggressive or conservative) we would be far better off. I am NOT at all for the government managing this or many other areas of our lives as they have proven to be remiss in much of their fiduciary duties.

And you haven't even included the same amount that your employer has to contribute, unless you are self employed and then you get to pay the whole amount.

 

[MoArk Willy]

In 2019, Trumps tariffs took effect.
According to the economic statistics they were barely noticed.
Policies enacted by Biden causes nearly a nearly 20% increase in just about everything, domestic and imported.
Trumps tariffs of 2019 created no inflation whatsoever.
His proposed tariffs are conditional to Mexico, Canada and China "until such time as Drugs, in particular Fentanyl and all illegal Aliens stop the invasion of our country".

 

[ultrarunner]

California had in the pipeline a new state of the art refinery with hundreds of approvals granted but in the end the never ending just a few more was enough to cancel the project.

Chevron world headquarters left California… Phillips 66 gave notice… we have oil but the cost deemed to great…

I still see tankers bringing in crude but there are very active groups waning to shutter all Northern CA refineries… no idea what the situation is in Southern CA.

 

[TimberFarm]

In 2019, Trumps tariffs took effect.
According to the economic statistics they were barely noticed.
Policies enacted by Biden causes nearly a nearly 20% increase in just about everything, domestic and imported.
Trumps tariffs of 2019 created no inflation whatsoever.
His proposed tariffs are conditional to Mexico, Canada and China "until such time as Drugs, in particular Fentanyl and all illegal Aliens stop the invasion of our country".

So, what "policies" did Biden enact?
This is what happened when trump enacted one of his tariffs with China:



"The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 724 points, or 2.9%, after the tariffs were announced due to concerns over a trade war.[128] Corporations that traded with China, such as Caterpillar Inc. and Boeing, suffered large losses in their stock price.[129]

In response, the Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China announced plans to implement its own tariffs on 128 U.S. products. 120 of those products, such as fruit and wine, will be taxed at a 15% duty while the remaining eight products, including pork, will receive a 25% tariff.[130][131]"

 

[ning]

So, what "policies" did Biden enact?
This is what happened when trump enacted one of his tariffs with China:



"The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 724 points, or 2.9%, after the tariffs were announced due to concerns over a trade war.[128] Corporations that traded with China, such as Caterpillar Inc. and Boeing, suffered large losses in their stock price.[129]

In response, the Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China announced plans to implement its own tariffs on 128 U.S. products. 120 of those products, such as fruit and wine, will be taxed at a 15% duty while the remaining eight products, including pork, will receive a 25% tariff.[130][131]"

There was a big jump of inflation that started ramping with covid, spurred on by the "stimulus" checks.
I remember seeing some with 45's name on them - not made out to me, I don't think I got any; my wife and I both continued working through (me WFH as usual, she kept going to the hospital).

 

[tjandrews]

There was a big jump of inflation that started ramping with covid, spurred on by the "stimulus" checks.
I remember seeing some with 45's name on them - not made out to me, I don't think I got any; my wife and I both continued working through (me WFH as usual, she kept going to the hospital).

Just about everybody who filed tax returns got at least three - unless your income was above whatever the upper limit was. Two came from 45, one from 46. The idea was to spend that money to stimulate the economy, to keep us in a recession instead of another Depression because of covid.
My brother (and business partner) and I each got payments. We used the first to replace our old hay baler, which had had a fatal injury, with one that wasn't quite so old. We never saw the second in a check; that money was used to pay part of our self-employment tax that year. The third was used to pay to remove a diseased tree that was threatening to fall on our house.
We actually had enough money in our savings/emergency funds to cover those expenses, but because of the payments we didn't have to go to that well, and we still had savings to cover the next emergency. (And on a farm there's ALWAYS another emergency on the way.)
The payments didn't start the big jump in inflation, at least not by themselves. That came mostly as a result of a shipping crisis, where for various reasons goods were not going from producer to market as they did before covid. Remember the empty supermarket shelves?

 

[2manyrocks]

I too have paid into Social Security since a young age (16 for me). I was forced to retire early at 62 due to back problems. Fortunately, I had a good 401k that I started at age 26 and so am not entirely reliant upon Social Security however had I been, it would have been near impossible to live as I have been. Having done extensive research into how to manage that early retirement, considering the reduced SS benefit coupled with the high cost of healthcare until I quality for Medicare, I discovered some interesting information.

First, had the average worker been able to invest the same 12.4% of income that the government takes for SS in an IRA at a modest 8% return, most would easily top the $1 million mark by age 65. Further, rather than be at risk for the fund becoming insolvent, we would not be facing that issue as the markets have consistently posted positive returns for decades. Once you reach retirement age, it should be treated as any private IRA thus allowing you to withdraw funds to meet your financial needs and desires, rather than be pigeonholed into what they determine you may have. Plus, it's all yours or your heirs, not the governments. Finally, as it stands, once you pass away, whatever money is left is kept by the government, except in the case of survivor benefits which are often not at the full rate being paid to the original SS recipient. How many people die young and never collect benefits? If they had an IRA, it would at least go to their family or chosen heirs.

Though I agree that many people wouldn't have done this on their own, if we were required to have that same 12.4% withdrawn from our paychecks but deposited in an approved IRA that we could manage how we invest (aggressive or conservative) we would be far better off. I am NOT at all for the government managing this or many other areas of our lives as they have proven to be remiss in much of their fiduciary duties.

I remember the govt kept raising the individual contribution amount in the 1980s.

Had a friend who didn’t get a marriage license to marry his wife. His state didn’t recognize common law marriage. He was the wage earner. She raised their large family. When he died, she got zero of his social security.

 

[tjandrews]

I remember the govt kept raising the individual contribution amount in the 1980s.

Had a friend who didn’t get a marriage license to marry his wife. His state didn’t recognize common law marriage. He was the wage earner. She raised their large family. When he died, she got zero of his social security.

Far too many of my generation, Baby Boomers, considered a marriage license "just a piece of paper" that they didn't really need to show their love. Perhaps they should have been better at doing their homework.

The government also raised the "full" retirement age. Instead of 65, like my father, my "full" age was 66. My younger brothers were almost 67. Something akin to that, as well as eliminating the cap on earnings that are taxed, should be done to "save" Social Security now, but Congressfolk of both parties are too timid to do what must be done until they have no choice.

 

[2manyrocks]

Not having that piece of paper showing they were married turned out to be very costly for my friends wife. Knowing him, I am not sure he would have gotten a marriage license even if he had realized she wouldn’t get his social security without it.