Market Watch

[Torvy]

I watched that today, too. The part he missed entirely is that as the economy worsens, more buyers will gravitate toward the lower priced brands and take market share from the "duopoly".

He said that JD and Kubota have always been the duopoly. I guess Neil is young and didn't study tractor history. Kubota wasn't even import to the US until 1969. John Deere wasn't a top 3 brand until the mid 60s. The point is that the changes over time also affect the 'top' brands. Kubota and JD both were economy brands until they gained market share.

He also badly overstated the 'brands'. Many of them are just marketing opportunities for manufacturers (TYM, for example, makes all Bad Boy and RK tractors). Kioti makes Bobcat, etc. Even if those marketing brands go away, parts will still be made.

Overall, he is not wrong that one or more brands will go away (I made that point on another thread that Neil even replied to). Sometimes, though, these statements by the big brands are calculated to scare customers away from buying brands with lower prices. It becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. If he scares away enough buyers, it will be even more certain that brands will go away.

 

[5030]

I've always maintained that 'you can only slice the pie so thin and someone don't get the slice'

 

[jyoutz]

I watched that today, too. The part he missed entirely is that as the economy worsens, more buyers will gravitate toward the lower priced brands and take market share from the "duopoly".

He said that JD and Kubota have always been the duopoly. I guess Neil is young and didn't study tractor history. Kubota wasn't even import to the US until 1969. John Deere wasn't a top 3 brand until the mid 60s. The point is that the changes over time also affect the 'top' brands. Kubota and JD both were economy brands until they gained market share.

He also badly overstated the 'brands'. Many of them are just marketing opportunities for manufacturers (TYM, for example, makes all Bad Boy and RK tractors). Kioti makes Bobcat, etc. Even if those marketing brands go away, parts will still be made.

Overall, he is not wrong that one or more brands will go away (I made that point on another thread that Neil even replied to). Sometimes, though, these statements by the big brands are calculated to scare customers away from buying brands with lower prices. It becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. If he scares away enough buyers, it will be even more certain that brands will go away.

I keep hearing people talk about a worsening economy, yet we are seeing bidding wars on homes in my rural area and the stores are jammed full of people buying. Roads are busy and traffic is worsening. It sure doesn’t seem to me like people are hesitant to buy.

 

[CloverKnollFarms]

Those videos come off so pompous...

The youth today don't know a lot about history... It's like the world began in 1990.

Prices have skyrocketed. Incomes have not kept pace. Borrowing has gotten more expensive. Everything else people have to pay for, has been inflated too.

In Indiana and Kentucky DOM has been increasing for homes, and most have price reductions attached. Personal debt is at an all time high... That can only continue for so long. People are spending on credit cards, because they are unwilling to accept that their lifestyle has to change. Sadly, it does, it will, but it will be learned the hard way by many.

 

[tacticalturnip]

I keep hearing people talk about a worsening economy, yet we are seeing bidding wars on homes in my rural area and the stores are jammed full of people buying. Roads are busy and traffic is worsening. It sure doesn’t seem to me like people are hesitant to buy.

Glad New Mexico is booming; Maine is a ****show.

 

[jyoutz]

Glad New Mexico is booming; Maine is a ****show.

I think most of the west is booming. I travel a lot within the western half of the country. Except for the very rural or less desirable locations, everywhere seems to be booming.

 

[Cahaba Valley Farm]

Interesting Messicks video on the Compact tractor market;

Mike

That's funny, I'm watching this on my television at the moment.

He makes some valid points, but also has some obvious bias; I also don't think the companies he most wants to see gone are going to be going anywhere. I don't see Kioti or TYM leaving the U.S. market any time soon.

Regarding that Cub Cadet, it's a Daedong DK series? Couldn't parts be found from a Kioti dealer?

Thanks for sharing guys

 

[Hay Dude]

Glad New Mexico is booming; Maine is a ****show.

PA not far behind

 

[Hay Dude]

Interesting Messicks video on the Compact tractor market;

Mike

Messicks is raking in money by the dumptruck load.
I just got a n invoice for a visit by one of their techs to help me fix my baler.
The bill was just insane. I can’t afford them anymore.

 

[ultrarunner]

Sorry to hear that and experiencing similar just about across the board on field service…

As the new normal continues to sink in I expect more belt tightening plus some saying no more and most doing with less.

If you follow the money as my neighbor would say… higher energy costs has to be a factor plus things here like tax increases or new taxes… a sales tax from 9 to 10% is more than a 10% jump and so far we pay…

A new car or tractor with taxes pushing 11% means just the tax is more than I paid for almost every car I’ve ever bought.

 

[2manyrocks]

Although my initial thought is that a recession would bring things back in line a bit, my fear is the Fed will react by pumping even more liquidity, making things worse.

 

[5030]

Maine is a ****show.

Always has been, just look at it's governor to understand. Same here in Michigan same type of governor. In fact she and the like legislature have been enacting gun control bills lately, much to the chagrin of the voters as Michiganders are all about the right to keep and bear arms.

What amazes me about politicians in general is, they make promises to get elected and then forget about those promises and do what they want to with no regard for the voters that installed them in the first place. No, I DID NOT vote for her. Least she is on term limits something that should be applied to ALL elected politicians IMO.

 

[Slowpoke Slim]

Interesting Messicks video on the Compact tractor market;

Mike

He does present a valid point of view in the video.

I can't help but think that market share opinion of the "duopoly" of the big 2 is the same philosophy that IH used to have in the 60's, or even JD used to have when looking at that new "overseas upstart" named Kubota. "Don't take them seriously boys, no way anyone would buy a tractor with that funny name".

The interesting semi-bombshell bit of data I took from the video is that the combined market share of both JD and Kubota is down to 65% (in the US). That is actually quite telling, and I think portents a change in the weather for the "duopoly" (what a word, is that even a word?). I think in another 10 years that market share is going to get much smaller.

 

[5030]

I can’t afford them anymore.

Candidly, I never could. I made that mistake one time, buying consumable parts for my M's from them (filters sets and other stuff) and their shipping costs were way out of line and the only reason I did was because my Kubota dealer was out of stock on what I required. I'll never make that mistake again. Once bitten, twice shy. Even Coleman's in Kansas city is less expensive. Guess I'm fortunate that I can repair my own stuff and the fact that if I need a farm call for some reason, I get a hefty discount on that.

Normally, I don't watch Neil's video's as I really don't come away with much knowledge I didn't have in the first place.

 

[5030]

I think in another 10 years that market share is going to get much smaller.

I believe you are correct but because of the rapidly increasing cost of new equipment more than anything. I suspect that owners in general will be keeping what they already have and not buying new. New tractor prices are getting insane as are parts prices. I just purchased 2 complete filters sets for my M9's and just the Kubota oil filters were 20 bucks each. As much as I hate to say it, those prices are pushing me towards aftermarket consumables.

 

[CloverKnollFarms]

I also find it interesting that a couple of the "bottom tier" manufacturers, he neglects to point out make tractors for the other "bottom tier". And some of those bottom tier, make none of their own (Bobcat). If I'm building tractors for several other brands, the dilution of my income isn't as stark as he presents it.

Kubota was one of them at one time, the bottom tier. They are proof alone that TYM could be the next Kubota, really.

 

[5030]

Kubota has had decades to hone their business model. Never forget that. They have as of late made some what I consider 'iffy' mergers. in the larger ag related marketplace but their compact and sub compact tractor sales remain strong.

We have a Branson (TYM) retail dealer up town and I drive by there all the time and I don't see his floor planned tractors moving at all, but then out here those tractors aren't considered viable ag tractors anyway. Too small.

 

[5030]

with the worst yet to come.

You got that right. Far as home buying is concerned, it has to be because of creative financing. Problem with that is, when the 'rubber meets the road', those buyers will not be able to make their monthly notes and that is when the 'bubble breaks'.

CC debt is through the roof and I'm willing to bet that most folks carrying a large balance on their plastic banker are just paying the minimum payment (if they even can).

 

[CloverKnollFarms]

People will buy homes. They can always refinance later when rates drop. Now, until then, they are also carrying record CC debt. If a recession comes they will be in inflated homes, at 8% interest and massive CC debt... Which won't bide well for them staying solvent. People don't leave margin in their lives anymore. Hell we are debt free, and I still don't find living affordable when you consider what you need to save monthly for future expenses.

 

[tacticalturnip]

Always has been, just look at it's governor to understand. Same here in Michigan same type of governor. In fact she and the like legislature have been enacting gun control bills lately, much to the chagrin of the voters as Michiganders are all about the right to keep and bear arms.

What amazes me about politicians in general is, they make promises to get elected and then forget about those promises and do what they want to with no regard for the voters that installed them in the first place. No, I DID NOT vote for her. Least she is on term limits something that should be applied to ALL elected politicians IMO.

Our last governor was the best in my lifetime, he served two terms, then retired to Florida. Our current governor is on her second term; her first term was such a mess that the old governor moved back up here and ran against her. Well, he lost, and we got what we asked for.