Good morning!!!!

[riptides]

..."It may be true that in the short run, one dose might be effective," Hewlett conceded, "but we don't know how long that this protection will last, and is the second dose going to be adding to that?" He explained that many public health officials want to simplify vaccine administration, but "before we can support this, we are going to have to have data that looks at this."...

The science is behind the data. Which is ever changing, daily. More data...better science.

People seem to want instant gratification and results at 100 percent effectiveness from day one. They don't sense or get that....then it opens doors for other paths and behaviours.

New virus, new vaccines, unique human conditions.... I'd say we have come a long way in a few short months.

 

[PJSprog]

-1°F and patchy fog this morning, going up to 28° today. We finally get back up above freezing tomorrow for the first time in two weeks. I read somewhere that the previous record was 11 consecutive days back in 1977.

Wife asked me to stop and pick up dinner on the way home from work yesterday. I stopped at St. Louis Bread Company (known as Panera to the rest of the world) and picked up a couple of their small flatbread pizzas. I have to admit, it was not bad.

The eastbound lanes of the Musial Bridge over the Mississippi River have been closed this week for expansion joint repairs, so I've been taking alternate routes home using the McKinley Bridge. The state of road (dis-)repair in some of these areas is just sad.

Stepson in San Marcos sent pictures last night of his local Walmart. Not a single thing on any of the shelves around the outer walls. All the coolers and freezers are completely empty. He said they went to two other stores and found the same. Heard a story on the radio this morning that trucks are sitting because they can't pump the fuel they need to make the deliveries. One driver said he's been stuck where he is for five days. Unbelievable.

 

[rswyan]

What does this have to do with the distribution of the second shot?

Like Drew points out, it's a question of balancing a social good against an individual interest ...

The time delay between 1st and 2nd shot allows the TPB to rely on what's in the pipeline and will be produced as a finished product in the coming days and months for that second shot.

The upside to this might be lessening the contagion and spread of the virus in the overall population.

If the program was administered correctly the second shot would be earmarked for the patient that received the first shot and shipped with the first shot.

That's one opinion to be sure.

Of course, it denies potential protection to those who could receive a vaccine now - because something is being set aside for people that can't take it anyways for another 3 or 4 weeks.

In an ideal world, we'd have enough vaccine production that there would be enough for everyone in one fell swoop.

Unfortunately, that world don't exist.

Taking the first shot and not having the second on standby is like buying your tractor and the loader never showing up or getting there after you have hired someone to do the work. My understanding from my doctor daughter is that without the second shot and some flu like symptoms the process doesn't work. Now this is related to the Pfizer shot so that's the extent of my knowledge but I would think the Moderna is similar. My doctor wants me to go with the J&J shot. So bottom line, it sounds like nobody really knows. Which is my whole point.

Ok.

 

[rswyan]

The science is behind the data. Which is ever changing, daily. More data...better science.

People seem to want instant gratification and results at 100 percent effectiveness from day one. They don't sense or get that....then it opens doors for other paths and behaviours.

New virus, new vaccines, unique human conditions.... I'd say we have come a long way in a few short months.

:thumbsup:

 

[lostcreekranch]

Even though it's garbage day since the driveways are slick ice (except for mine - I shoveled snow) no one can put the garbage out till it melts. Almost as bad as reporting about warming centers that no one could get to because of the iced roads. And then there is a HEB commercial on TV - why advertise when you have empty shelves?

You .. have a snow shovel?

 

[wngsprd]

The science is behind the data. Which is ever changing, daily. More data...better science.

People seem to want instant gratification and results at 100 percent effectiveness from day one. They don't sense or get that....then it opens doors for other paths and behaviours.

New virus, new vaccines, unique human conditions.... I'd say we have come a long way in a few short months.

I agree! We have been fortunate to get the vaccine this quickly...a remarkable application of government working with business, like during World War II. I'd love to be able get a jab myself, but would hope that those needing it worse will get the proper protection, meaning the second dose, rather than not, due to some less well tested theory...hope this new idea isn't coming from the "just 2 weeks to flatten the curve" crowd.

 

[Buppies]

Thanks Thomas very special indeed

Great RNG thank you

 

[txdon]

You .. have a snow shovel?

Surprise a regular Texas flat shovel works just as good.

Anyone in Texas having frozen water in tractor tires. I’m getting reports from a friend who’s tires are frozen and the air space is flat.

 

[RedNeckGeek]

I like your airplane analogy, Drew. It works for the N95 masks, too, in that 5% of the airborne particles still make it through the mask. WRT efficacy rates, though, 5% of 220,000,000 people is still 11,000,000 cases of CV19, 1% of which, or another 110,000 will die. If that 5% turns out to be the difference between one dose and two, we'd better stick with two, IMHO.

But, from what I've read, the clinical trials that have started are still being monitored to help determine the long term effects. I haven't read of any trials, other than the J&J, that administered only a single dose. And with the J&J vaccine, efficacy was only 90%, so you lose that 110,000 folks right up front. Given the choice, I'd pick one of the two dose vaccines. But since there seems to be a supply issue, until it's resolved we'll have to stick with the hand sanitizer, face masks, and social distancing discipline. From what I saw in town yesterday, more and more people are ignoring those simple precautions.

I did find some N95 face masks last week. Not on Amazon, who is restricting their sales to those in essential areas, but from ebay, which apparently has no such scruples. They're a new type I haven't tried before, and were designed to fold flat for easy transport. That makes them a little more fiddly to put on, but I think they fit better, and they're a lot easier to breathe through than my previous mask that I've been using for almost 18 months. Here are the order details:
Order date: 2/11/2021 - eBay user globedrug ( 834 )
Order total: $22.28
3M Aura 9205 Plus N95 Particulate Respirator Disposable Protective Mask (5 Pack)
You should get this by Mon, Feb 22.

 

[rswyan]

I agree! We have been fortunate to get the vaccine this quickly...a remarkable application of government working with business, like during World War II. I'd love to be able get a jab myself, but would hope that those needing it worse will get the proper protection, meaning the second dose, rather than not, due to some less well tested theory...hope this new idea isn't coming from the "just 2 weeks to flatten the curve" crowd.

We're well beyond flattening the curve at this point ... we've actually turned it.

That doesn't mean it's time to let up however - more like time to pour on the coal to the fire.

United States COVID-19 Tracking Dashboard - News Cases

United States COVID-19 Tracking Dashboard - Deaths

 

[Buppies]

Thanks Bird

 

[RedNeckGeek]

it all sounds good RNG except the liquid smoke. Go easy on that stuff ...

The European Food Safety Authority, the health arm of the European Union, has conducted a series of investigations
to determine the safety of liquid smoke flavorings derived from different types of hardwood.

A large driver in these investigations lies in the fact that liquid smoke contains polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs),
a family of chemical compounds. A handful of its members been linked to carcinogenic effects and DNA damage.
For example, Primary Product AM 01, a flavoring derived from burning beechwood, is considered a safety concern
due to findings that it might cause DNA mutations when consumed.

Liquid Smoke: The History Behind a Divisive Culinary Shortcut - Eater

How many tons of Primary Product AM 01 flavoring does it take to kill you? :laughing: I have hickory and mesquite on the shelf, so it looks like I'll be safe. But wouldn't a charcoal fired BBQs deliver the same chemicals to your food? Good thing I gave up charcoal years ago!

 

[rswyan]

interesting social good question. There was a big upset in the beginning about holding back doses for second shot and not sure how that got resolved.

Indeed.

But clear this is a huge logistical challenge to get this done in 6 weeks.
Yes I'm happy my Moderna first shot is 91 percent effective.
But if you offered me a free plane ticket and 9 percent of the free tickets crashed,
those aren't odds I'd be happy about.

From a personal interest perspective, that's entirely understandable.

But public health officials have a duty to operate from a broader mandate: what's in the best interests of the group overall, rather than any single individual ...

what no one has discussed is what happens if you get your second shot two months later? Three months?
Do you lose all the immunities so far?

Good question.

 

[RedNeckGeek]

what no one has discussed is what happens if you get your second shot two months later? Three months?
Do you lose all the immunities so far?

Vaccines work by teaching your body to make antibodies to the disease, but they don't kill you like exposure to the disease might. We've had vaccines for polio, measles, and tons of other diseases in the past, and they only required one dose to provide a lifetime of immunity. Why should CoVid-19 be any different?

Paging Dr. Don to the white courtesy telephone...:laughing:

 

[pennwalk]

It started snowing yesterday about 5am. Fine snow and sleet. Never too heavy. Stopped around 1pm. 3-3 1/2 inches. I couldn't decide weather to clear or not. I decided to err on the side of lazy.:laughing: In the after noon it misted and froze on the ground. Clear overnight. Light snow started after breakfast. It is supposed to end by lunchtime. Between the weather and the pandemic we are as jumpy as cats. Hope our house doesn't start popping or I will be hanging from the ceiling.:confused2:

My wife picked up the landline Wed. Since then we have been getting a steady stream of calls. There were 3 messages telling us our Amazon account was being billed $849 and wanting us to call to confirm. My wife wanted to call so I checked the number on Google. Known scam.:thumbdown:

Plan to give the snowblower a lite workout after lunch.

I'm thinking of you Texas tractor boys. We had an ice storm a couple of years ago that left us without power for 4 days. Thank goodness for the power crews from Georgia who got us hooked back up. We were just about to drain the pipes and get a hotel room.

I will be interested to hear what the experts think is happening with the pandemic here in the USA. I don't think they expected cases and deaths to be going down so quickly.

Stay warm.

Chris

 

[check]

I like your airplane analogy, Drew. It works for the N95 masks, too, in that 5% of the airborne particles still make it through the mask. WRT efficacy rates, though, 5% of 220,000,000 people is still 11,000,000 cases of CV19, 1% of which, or another 110,000 will die. If that 5% turns out to be the difference between one dose and two, we'd better stick with two, IMHO.

But, from what I've read, the clinical trials that have started are still being monitored to help determine the long term effects. I haven't read of any trials, other than the J&J, that administered only a single dose. And with the J&J vaccine, efficacy was only 90%, so you lose that 110,000 folks right up front. Given the choice, I'd pick one of the two dose vaccines. But since there seems to be a supply issue, until it's resolved we'll have to stick with the hand sanitizer, face masks, and social distancing discipline. From what I saw in town yesterday, more and more people are ignoring those simple precautions.

I did find some N95 face masks last week. Not on Amazon, who is restricting their sales to those in essential areas, but from ebay, which apparently has no such scruples. They're a new type I haven't tried before, and were designed to fold flat for easy transport. That makes them a little more fiddly to put on, but I think they fit better, and they're a lot easier to breathe through than my previous mask that I've been using for almost 18 months. Here are the order details:
Order date: 2/11/2021 - eBay user globedrug ( 834 )
Order total: $22.28
3M Aura 9205 Plus N95 Particulate Respirator Disposable Protective Mask (5 Pack)
You should get this by Mon, Feb 22.

Let's not forget that these 95% "protection" rates from Pfizer and Moderna were based upon infections with symptoms. Remember, up to 40% or so of people infected are asymptomatic. And in December, they admitted that their vaccines are only 2/3 effective when we consider these asymptomatic infections. And of course, while asymptomatic "infectees" do not feel sick (or even know they have the virus), they can nonetheless infect others. So let's not be sanguine about this.

 

[toppop52]

It's funny how they say whatever fits their present dilemma. How do they issue the first shot to patients and not have the second one waiting when it's a 2 shot vaccine?

There is a much longer window to get the second shot than they first thought, at least 42 days but maybe as long as 90 days or more. Plus you only gain about 2-3% with the second shot. Only caveat is how long the immunity lasts one shot vs two.

Ellen gets her first tomorrow morning.

 

[kenmbz]

Good morning all, 24 going up to 34 , had about 5" of wet snow yesterday.
Little tractor and plow worked fine, icy and snowing again this morning.

Kyle-sorry to hear about pharmacy experience and hope the wife recovers quickly. And of course we hope it warms up soon so Texas can get back to some semblance of normal.
LS - well good news on the knee recovery-2nd the PT warning- don't wait for them.
Mostly - if board has no power, lots of the time it's a capacitor on the power supply side, they die on any overvoltage (round ones standing up from board). Could be the relay too they sometimes smoke their contacts. Whats near R19? the backside of the board does look funny there.
Goo work on the rescue Sodamo - The new Super Dave
Workinonit - hope the flooding recedes. Wet shop not fun

PA is having more issues with vaccine- some 2nd doses given as first doses to new people. Some software glitches shutting down sites for days. But the Gov is still pushing for pot and lowering taxes for families by raising the income tax??-I think I know what he's smoking.

Stay safe and be well and hope Texas gets a break soon from the freeze

 

[rswyan]

Let's not forget that these 95% "protection" rates from Pfizer and Moderna were based upon infections with symptoms. Remember, up to 40% or so of people infected are asymptomatic. And in December, they admitted that their vaccines are only 2/3 effective when we consider these asymptomatic infections. And of course, while asymptomatic "infectees" do not feel sick (or even know they have the virus), they can nonetheless infect others. So let's not be sanguine about this.

:thumbsup:

 

[rswyan]

There is a much longer window to get the second shot than they first thought, at least 42 days but maybe as long as 90 days or more. Plus you only gain about 2-3% with the second shot. Only caveat is how long the immunity lasts one shot vs two.

Ellen gets her first tomorrow morning.

Very good news ... :thumbsup: