Thoughts on mega wind and solar projects

[edgarrian]

Hey, did you see this yesterday?

Under House Bill 1333, Indiana opens door to more development in rural areas without public input

Hoosiers living or working in rural areas soon may have no meaningful say over whether a data center, solar field, windmills, new residences, or even something

indianaeconomicdigest.net

Yes Its been dropped out of the bill. That's what the state wanted to do with wind and solar. Soliday was leading that charge

 

[Phil Timmons]

The issue is energy density. You can put in a 2 on 1 combined cycle plant that produces 1200MW and takes up 20 acres of space, with almost guaranteed available dispatch. Or 350 wind turbines, over ???? acres, that are never predictable on output. What's the better choice?

I'm a practical guy and it's a no-brainer to me.

Naw, it is not an issue. It is a lame marketing and selling jargon for Nukes and other Central Plant operators. They do test studies for what sounds good and will be repeated and spread by others. Part of a practice called FUD. There is a wiki on it. Fear, uncertainty, and doubt - Wikipedia

"dense" energy, as you say is the most expensive to create handle distribute and sell. Pretty much the least practical, since you cite practical. Think of Lightning for an extreme case? Very dense, very impractical. What the FUD folks are really promoting is called "Central Plant." Power goes out from a Central Plant (really most care little of which type or where -- just that they own the Central Plant). And then money comes back to them from everyone else. Just the Corporate PLantation Model.

As far as "better choice?" For most of US and most of the World? Small local Solar PV. Placed over existing manmade "Impervious Surface." (fancy name for roofs, parking lots, etc.) That creates the Electricity "un-dense" enough to use at or near the site of demand, and does not require Central Plants nor Transmission. So you can probably see who would not like that.

 

[gsganzer]

Naw, it is not an issue. It is a lame marketing and selling jargon for Nukes and other Central Plant operators. They do test studies for what sounds good and will be repeated and spread by others. Part of a practice called FUD. There is a wiki on it. Fear, uncertainty, and doubt - Wikipedia

"dense" energy, as you say is the most expensive to create handle distribute and sell. Pretty much the least practical, since you cite practical. Think of Lightning for an extreme case? Very dense, very impractical. What the FUD folks are really promoting is called "Central Plant." Power goes out from a Central Plant (really most care little of which type or where -- just that they own the Central Plant). And then money comes back to them from everyone else. Just the Corporate PLantation Model.

As far as "better choice?" For most of US and most of the World? Small local Solar PV. Placed over existing manmade "Impervious Surface." (fancy name for roofs, parking lots, etc.) That creates the Electricity "un-dense" enough to use at or near the site of demand, and does not require Central Plants nor Transmission. So you can probably see who would not like that.

Like most things, there's a need for a balanced mix. Sure, a point-of-use PV array would work for low power use applications like homes. But how do you power a larger consumer, like factories, data centers and cities? You can't put enough windmills or solar, and the associated batteries, to cover for when either of those sources aren't producing for those higher consumption needs.

 

[Phil Timmons]

Like most things, there's a need for a balanced mix. Sure, a point-of-use PV array would work for low power use applications like homes. But how do you power a larger consumer, like factories, data centers and cities? You can't put enough windmills or solar, and the associated batteries, to cover for when either of those sources aren't producing for those higher consumption needs.

That is not the math nor the real world. All those "big loads" are not really that big compared to the overall loads. Consider those loads you listed are all already covered, with surplus, by just existing generation, which already runs WAY surplus every night, as well.

The thing to "hit" (and also why all that surplus Coal, Nukes and Gas was already over-built) is the Summer Air Conditioning Peak. THAT is the Big Load for US. It is about 750E9 Watts, all at once. It hits for about 5 hours per day, for 40 days or so per year, so that is about (5 x 40) = 200 hours per year. Comparing that to 8760 hours in a year . . . that is about 2% of the time. The rest of the time, the existing US Grid is rather surplus. Sometimes at night things are so surplus, we have taken to giving night-time Electricity away for FREE -- just trying to find a customer.

For the Math to Math, you have to follow a concept called "Aligning Time of Use with Time of Production." It turns out that Summer Air Conditioning Load is caused by the same thing, at about the same time as Solar PV -- the Sun. As the olde farmers say -- make hay (or Electricity) while the Sun shines.

So the Air Condition Peak Load and Solar PV can largely cancel each other out. No Batteries nor the rest of the drama required. As of last year -- US now has over 250E9 Watts of Solar PV installed and on-line. Just 2 to 3x more -- (already on that path) -- and the ENTIRE Summer Air Conditioning Peak can be covered with just Solar PV, alone. Again, no storage even required to do that.

 

[gsganzer]

Phil,
Where does "economy of scale" fit into the equation in regards to raw materials? I've always wanted to see a chart that shows lifetime material consumption per megawatt. With most things, you gain efficiency with scale, within reason. 350 wind turbines, with 350 generators, towers, blades, lube oil systems, transformers, control instrumentation, roads, interconnecting wire etc, would seem to be less efficient on other resources like steel, rare earth minerals etc. Seems like you just pillage another resource in the process.

 

[orezok]

Like most things, there's a need for a balanced mix. Sure, a point-of-use PV array would work for low power use applications like homes. But how do you power a larger consumer, like factories, data centers and cities? You can't put enough windmills or solar, and the associated batteries, to cover for when either of those sources aren't producing for those higher consumption needs.

The 29 Palms Marine Corp base is a good example for large scale green energy.

The Combat Center received the award for its devotion to the use of clean energy. The installation, which sprawls more than 704,000 acres, utilizes “green energy” to fulfill more than 60% of its electrical requirements in the summer and 95% in the winter.

 

[Phil Timmons]

Materials is where Solar PV really sweeps the field, as it were. Big Wind is already dropping behind on all this. Followed by New Gas dropping off more, Nukes dead-in-the-Water, and Coal just bankrupting off line.

Consider what the stuff is made of? Mostly Glass. Silicon Dioxide, as it were. Silicon and Oxygen are the most common elements in the Earth's Crust. And then the frame and conductors are Aluminum, the most common Metal in the Earth's Crust. And then the Silicon PV part (Silicon, again) is wafer (haha) thin, so there is barely any of that.

And ALL of that is 100% infinitely recyclable. Meaning it can just be recycled and recycled over 1000s of times with no material degradation. So a single build out with a Service Life of say 40 years, each cycle -- is like a 40000 year supply, and you will still have as much as you started with.

And now the panels (or modules - old jargon) are down to 1/10 to 1/5th cost for a new installation -- meaning that since the racking and field site can sit there and be re-used with no re-work, the stuff just keeps getting cheaper and cheaper. You only need to replace the panels and parts every 40 years or so, and just keep going.

All with little-to-no Operations and Maintenance Costs, and Zero Fuel Cost. That is all a big part of WHY US and the World are mostly building Solar PV in 2025 and 2026. Nothing can stand up against this.

 

[gsganzer]

To be perfectly transparent. I commission new gas simple cycle and combined cycle plants, mostly on the SCR NOx reduction equipment. Every gas turbine manufacturer is sold out until at least 2037, there is that big of an immediate need for electricity. Like I've always said, a sound energy policy is a 3-legged stool, cost, sustainability and reliability, with arguably a fourth leg, national security.

The development and harnessing of AI are this generations Manhattan Project or moon shot. The first country to properly implement it will be leaps and bounds ahead of the others. Energy is the key to winning this race and I'm all for every option that does it.

I also think we'll see huge innovation in energy management. As an example: mom, dad and junior all plug their electric cars in to charge overnight. The energy isn't there for full charges for everyone, so with AI's assistance, the charger gives everyone an appropriate charge for their next day's activities. I can see this happening across all sorts of needs: laundry, dishwasher, washing machines etc. AI will determine the best time to start these tasks.

 

[Phil Timmons]

To be perfectly transparent. I commission new gas simple cycle and combined cycle plants, mostly on the SCR NOx reduction equipment. Every gas turbine manufacturer is sold out until at least 2037, there is that big of an immediate need for electricity. Like I've always said, a sound energy policy is a 3-legged stool, cost, sustainability and reliability, with arguably a fourth leg, national security.

The development and harnessing of AI are this generations Manhattan Project or moon shot. The first country to properly implement it will be leaps and bounds ahead of the others. Energy is the key to winning this race and I'm all for every option that does it.

I also think we'll see huge innovation in energy management. As an example: mom, dad and junior all plug their electric cars in to charge overnight. The energy isn't there for full charges for everyone, so with AI's assistance, the charger gives everyone an appropriate charge for their next day's activities. I can see this happening across all sorts of needs: laundry, dishwasher, washing machines etc. AI will determine the best time to start these tasks.

First one, First? Well dunno if NOx is perfectly clear (haha), but any improvement is a good thing. Some nasty stuff.

We have some common background. Mostly around NE of Plano for me now. My kid is doing school in Denton, now.

Just probably have been playing it longer. Back some days ago was a Site Engineer under TXU for New Coal Plants (yeah, those used to happen), and later Senior Staff Engineer for several sites. Part of that role was review, updates, and EPA compliance for Particulate, SOx, NOx, Hg. Wheels were coming off the mess by the time we started into CO2 Reduction.

Have done some CC Gas at Corpus, Longview, and other places across the years, as well. Along with Hydro, Big Wind, Oil, Petrochem and now bunches and bunches of Solar along the way. And bunches of Commissioning projects, too.

A thing to keep in mind is that no matter how much you may believe something, or as you say, "like I have always said" is not really a verified source. It is just sort of a one-player circle j.

Sort of funny looking back at the Coal guys at TXU. They were absolutely certain that Coal was their past (it was), the present, and therefore, the future. Like you and citing "orders ahead" on equipment -- when the New Coal plants STOPPED -- (Just Stopped) -- they had equipment ordered years ahead, too. Which became massive scrap piles just laying in the East Texas Big Piney Woods. Really, one of “my” biggest plants . . . never got built. Which in retrospect was an okay thing.

They ran the whole operation dead into the ground not because they were dumb or something. It was because they were certain what had been - is what will be. Linear thinking, as it were – even though things in the real world rarely follow a line.

At the time, I had made it up to play in the fringes of the Board Level stuff, and was looking at options (other than Bankruptcy) to cover the $4E9 ($1E9 per Quarter) Interest Payment on $40E9 of Debt. I came back with $4E9 in Grants IF – would would put Solar PV on top of the open cut Coal Mines, as they were closed and covered. TXU Mining just could not bring themselves to allow that to happen. Instead, they went Bankrupt. They had to take me out in the hallway and explain to me that most everyone in the room had came from the Coal Mines, and could not tolerate Solar PV.

But that part was my mistake. Seeing things as an Electrical Engineer, I thought the Grid ran on Electricity. And the Coal guys all thought the Grid was just a way to sell Coal. Turns out we were BOTH wrong. The Grid runs on MONEY. It is a Big Cash Flow Register exchange, with the Retail Meters acting as a Cash Register, all to flow back up to the Top. Does not really matter what the source or fuel for the Electrons are. It is all just about the money.

Here is the thing for you to maybe to at least consider . . . Frack Gas is on the same path as Coal. I know, I know, THIS TIME, THIS ONE THING, THIS TIME is . . . different. Yeah. Sure. Okay.

But look ahead at what is falling behind of you? Coal is going away as fast as it can be shutdown. US Nukes have already dropped down from “US Peak Nukes” around 2012. Back then there were 104 Reactors. Now down to 94 Reactors, and the 10% that went away are not even missed. All the remaining US Nukes were all put on US Federal Welfare a couple of years ago to avoid bankrupting off-line early.

This is ALL about the same thing that built Coal, Nukes, and Recently Gas. Peak Load Demand CASH FLOW.

Here is the underlying terminal condition math you are up against:

Silicon Solar PV: At $1 per Watt install cost, that works out to around 2 to 3 cents “behind the meter” per kWh Electricity costs. And yes, that includes budgeting for Service Life, Cost of Capital, and Operations and Maintenance. Gas simply cannot touch that, and still has much higher O&M, and Fuel Costs. And then if you put that cheap Solar PV Electricity into an EV – it works out to the equivalent of 15 cent Gasoline. Or put it in a Tractor – since this is really a Tractor Site. Means Oil and the Permian Basin are dead, too.

And All the Solar PV ALL produces during the Grid and Gas Money Maker Time (Daily Peak).

Ready for the Quiz? If the Grid runs on Money? (it does) What is the REAL Future for Gas Generation? It is the same as Coal, in this regard.

Well sorry, that got so long, but figured you sounded sincere, so just some tips for you. We can do the AI Hype, and Energy Management next, if you like.

 

[gsganzer]

Funny coincidences we have. TXU (or maybe it was Luminant) tried to hire me years ago to be a fleet subject matter expert for the various emissions technologies. Essentially write work instructions on best practices for the various problems/failures encountered. I started my career doing source emissions testing (SOx, NOx, rocks) and other constituents, so I was pretty familiar with ESP's, baghouses, scrubbers, thermal oxidizers and all the various test methods for pollutants.

When I was meeting with the TXU folks, I asked them what their fleet consisted of. They all proudly said 100% coal. The fuel of the future, yada, yada.. This is when the CC plants were really starting to take hold and you could tell coal was on its way out. I told them they were nuts and didn't accept the job. I really felt like they were just looking for another person to blame if they went out of compliance.

Fortunately, I'm nearing the end of my career and in the early stages of retirement. There's a ton of work planned for the next few years, so there's no shortage of work for me to cherry pick if I want it. I'm already booked through April.

 

[ponytug]

@Phil Timmons and @gsganzer thanks for the detailed posts, and personal histories! That made for great reading.

All the best, Peter

 

[Phil Timmons]

Funny coincidences we have. TXU (or maybe it was Luminant) tried to hire me years ago to be a fleet subject matter expert for the various emissions technologies. Essentially write work instructions on best practices for the various problems/failures encountered. I started my career doing source emissions testing (SOx, NOx, rocks) and other constituents, so I was pretty familiar with ESP's, baghouses, scrubbers, thermal oxidizers and all the various test methods for pollutants.

When I was meeting with the TXU folks, I asked them what their fleet consisted of. They all proudly said 100% coal. The fuel of the future, yada, yada.. This is when the CC plants were really starting to take hold and you could tell coal was on its way out. I told them they were nuts and didn't accept the job. I really felt like they were just looking for another person to blame if they went out of compliance.

Fortunately, I'm nearing the end of my career and in the early stages of retirement. There's a ton of work planned for the next few years, so there's no shortage of work for me to cherry pick if I want it. I'm already booked through April.

Sorry to drop off. Was stunned on reading a FUD thread . . .

Yeah, sounds like I may have been sucked into the hole they were trying to throw you into.

So you came into all this from Power, or Controls, (or Chem E or Enviro)? -- just asking. BS / MSEE for me -- from Arlington.

Now I am mostly teaching down the road from you in Allen -- for Collin, the local College. Robotics and Automation. We are doing some Building Automation and Energy Management projects with the HVAC / Mechanical folks (among other things) for the Spring Semester Capstone Projects.

Wandering into that from just Volunteering to help teach a class. Now I have gotten sucked in to Full Time and lead for the Department. So [no] real "retirement" for a while. But they are really good people, and the kids (students) are great. Since Robotic and Automation Technology is called RAT -- I call the kids my Lab RATS. (term of endearment).

So you are NOT calling the AI / Datasite stuff out as hype, (yet?). I am thinking I have seen this game before -- Dot Com. Housing. EV Grid Takedown . . . now AI. Always the New Big (DO NOT QUESTION) Thing.

 

[Phil Timmons]

@Phil Timmons and @gsganzer thanks for the detailed posts, and personal histories! That made for great reading.

All the best, Peter

Thanks to you. Wandered back here because I was PO-ing folks on the "EVs is GONNA DIE!" thread.

 

[mark in portugal]

Here in Portugal, in January 80% of our electricity was from renewables.
We're running around 65% on an annual basis.

 

[gsganzer]

Sorry to drop off. Was stunned on reading a FUD thread . . .

Yeah, sounds like I may have been sucked into the hole they were trying to throw you into.

So you came into all this from Power, or Controls, (or Chem E or Enviro)? -- just asking. BS / MSEE for me -- from Arlington.

Now I am mostly teaching down the road from you in Allen -- for Collin, the local College. Robotics and Automation. We are doing some Building Automation and Energy Management projects with the HVAC / Mechanical folks (among other things) for the Spring Semester Capstone Projects.

Wandering into that from just Volunteering to help teach a class. Now I have gotten sucked in to Full Time and lead for the Department. So [no] real "retirement" for a while. But they are really good people, and the kids (students) are great. Since Robotic and Automation Technology is called RAT -- I call the kids my Lab RATS. (term of endearment).

So you are NOT calling the AI / Datasite stuff out as hype, (yet?). I am thinking I have seen this game before -- Dot Com. Housing. EV Grid Takedown . . . now AI. Always the New Big (DO NOT QUESTION) Thing.

I have a BS in environmental design from UMass. I actually moved to TX when I was offered a full scholarship for grad school at UT Arlington for the same. However, I started the air emissions testing job and I just ended up going down that rabbit hole instead of going to grad school. I did some of the Part 75 acid rain testing, completing the first complete test series in the nation at a coal plant in Arkansas. The early Part 75 testing made for some long days, commonly working 18 hour days or longer. I then moved to doing mainly boilers, incinerators and furnaces including the test team leader for testing at a chemical weapons incinerator pilot plant for destroying nerve agents and blistering agents and also a Ukrainian ballistic missile fuel incinerator (part of START II treaty).

I later went on to work for a large SCR system supplier, doing commissioning, later as a director of engineering. I'm listed on some patents for control philosophies and some other innovations for those systems.

I always joke that I'm sort of a jack of all trades, but an expert of nothing. I do instrumentation and controls, including PLC's and logic, mechanical, electrical, emissions and all the other tasks. Kind of a general cat herder and intermediary between my customer, their customer, the end user and all the disciplines and trades required to get it done. It's been a great career. I'm heading out next week to do some troubleshooting on a unit and the following week I'll be somewhere else to train some operators on their new SCR system. It never gets boring.

 

[Hay Dude]

Here in Portugal, in January 80% of our electricity was from renewables.
We're running around 65% on an annual basis.

From AI

“On Monday, 28 April 2025, at 12:33 CEST, a major power blackout occurred across the Iberian Peninsula affecting mainland Portugal and peninsular Spain, where electric power was interrupted for about ten hours in most of the Peninsula and longer in some areas. The power cut caused severe difficulties in telecommunications, transportation systems, and essential sectors such as emergency services. At least seven people in Spain and one in Portugal may have died due to outage-related circumstances”

 

[jyoutz]

From AI

“On Monday, 28 April 2025, at 12:33 CEST, a major power blackout occurred across the Iberian Peninsula affecting mainland Portugal and peninsular Spain, where electric power was interrupted for about ten hours in most of the Peninsula and longer in some areas. The power cut caused severe difficulties in telecommunications, transportation systems, and essential sectors such as emergency services. At least seven people in Spain and one in Portugal may have died due to outage-related circumstances”

Heck we have power outages in rural areas all the time no matter what the power generation fuel source is. Substations and powerlines are always subject to some disruption. My power was out last month when a hawk flew into a transformer and shorted the lines.

 

[Hay Dude]

Heck we have power outages in rural areas all the time no matter what the power generation fuel source is. Substations and powerlines are always subject to some disruption. My power was out last month when a hawk flew into a transformer and shorted the lines.

We know you think some small spot in rural America is a big deal to you, but this was an entire country of Portugal. Plus part of Spain.
That’s just a little more significant than some little po dunk town in New Mexico.
And it is 80% powered by renewables. And 7 people died because of it.

 

[jyoutz]

We know you think some small spot in rural America is a big deal to you, but this was an entire country.
And it is 80% powered by renewables. And 7 people died because of it.

What was the outage cause? Is it power generation or transmission? Transmission outages occur with all generation sources. And an entire country outage indicates no redundancy in the grid. Bad planning.

 

[Phil Timmons]

Heck we have power outages in rural areas all the time no matter what the power generation fuel source is. Substations and powerlines are always subject to some disruption. My power was out last month when a hawk flew into a transformer and shorted the lines.

Yeah, but it is supposed to be drama about "Thems thar Renewables is a Wreckin the Gridation I tells You!"

US is now playing, "Who can be the Dumbest in the World?" and is unfortunately winning.

Real Deal, it looks like the Spain Grid issues were Control and Protection Relay Settings. We had that problem from settings a couple of decades ago in the US. One device trips the next in a reverse sequence and causes what we call "Cascade Failure."

Now US use what is sometimes called "Ride Through" level settings. So things have some flexibility in response to out of spec conditions. Makes things far more robust at a (very slight) risk trade off for protecting local equipment.