Thoughts on mega wind and solar projects

[ponytug]

Much of the forest around Jasper had suffered from pine bark beetle infestations that caused large die offs prior to the fire, though the fire was blamed on hot + dry + windy conditions. I would comment that Canadian firefighting practices are quite different for a variety of reasons (low population density, low firefighting manpower and resources, etc.), so fires are more often allowed to burn relatively unconstrained.

From my limited understanding, biomass power plants aren't exactly the easiest to locate, design, or operate. Often if the bark to biomass ratio gets too high, the net energy isn't economically viable for power generation, though to @jyoutz's point there may be other values in burning the biomass, like removing slash from forests to lessen fire intensities and rates of spread. Often trucking logistics and expenses can eat up any potential profits or upsides. Hauling large quantities of biomass on rural roads often asks a lot of the roads, and the local highway department in increased maintenance. Sugarcane bagasse is a general winner, as is using lumber byproducts, but after that it can get rather complicated to get a plant to pencil out. I wouldn't rule one out, it is just hard to get a slam dunk.

All the best,

Peter

 

[jyoutz]

Much of the forest around Jasper had suffered from pine bark beetle infestations that caused large die offs prior to the fire, though the fire was blamed on hot + dry +windy conditions. I would comment that Canadian firefighting practices are quite different for a variyof reasons (low population density, low firefighting manpower and resources, etc.), so fires are more often allowed to burn relatively unconstrained.

From my limited understanding, biomass power plants aren't exactly the easiest to locate, design, or operate. Often if the bark to biomass ratio gets too high, the net energy isn't economically viable for power generation, though to @jyoutz's point there may be other values in burning the biomass, like removing slash from forests to lessen fire intensities and rates of spread. Often trucking logistics and expenses can eat up any potential profits or upsides. Hauling large quantities of biomass on rural roads often asks a lot of the roads, and the local highway department in increased maintenance. Sugarcane bagasse is a general winner, as is using lumber byproducts, but after that it can get rather complicated to get a plant to pencil out. I wouldn't rule one out, it is just hard to get a slam dunk.

All the best,

Peter

Your comments are all right on point. And that’s why I said in terms of of strict power generation, forest biomass isn’t cost competitive with natural gas. But when you look at the larger benefits to society and the tremendous cost of high severity forest fires, subsidizing wood biomass may in fact make economic and environmental sense. That is why one is seriously being planned in northern Arizona at this time.

 

[edgarrian]

Your comments are all right on point. And that’s why I said in terms of of strict power generation, forest biomass isn’t cost competitive with natural gas. But when you look at the larger benefits to society and the tremendous cost of high severity forest fires, subsidizing wood biomass may in fact make economic and environmental sense. That is why one is seriously being planned in northern Arizona at this time.

That's an interesting take and I like it. As long as forestry management is on board. Its really no different than what i do with my woods. I cut up the fallen timber and burn it in the house. I can heat my home for 12 hours. Saves my gas furnace on cold days. Keeps my consumption and expenses down. Less wear and tear on my furnace.

One would think california would get on board with something like this. Maybe the cost to subsidize could be the a reason they haven't.

 

[ponytug]

In California, finding labor to do fire management in forests is challenging. The terrain is often steep, access is often poor, and there aren't ready pools of labor. While the Austrians and Swiss have some very high tech equipment for selective logging on steep slopes, it isn't cheap. So, yes, it is the classic, "pay now, or pay later" problem.

There are some folks around here trying to train people in small scale prescribed burning techniques as an alternative to pricey equipment, but I think that it is early days, and will be quite some time before it could be an effective technique at scale. If it does succeed at scale, given the prevailing winds, summers east of California will have great sunrises and sunsets from the smoke. So, there may be reasons why someone "out east" might want to pay for a biomass plant in New Mexico or California...

As I wrote, I don't think it is easy to get these things to pencil out as it gets complicated. I've run numbers for biomass plants in the Midwest, and even there where there are a lot of things going for it, the maximum radius for a plant is 20-40 miles given the trucking costs, and folks close to the biomass plants would have to put up with near constant streams of semi trucks hauling in biomass. Unlike ethanol plants that has relatively high value outputs (ethanol, W/DDGs) biomass plants only have electricity to support the operations, and given today's costs of natural gas and electricity, it is tough to pencil out a biomass plant even in Iowa or Missouri.

All the best,

Peter

 

[MossRoad]

In a sense, your electronics degrees are trade school education. Just up a level or two from, let's say, carpentry.
Not to degrade carpenters, as good ones are quite valuable. I too made my living with pushing electrons around.

I've got more respect for good carpenters than electronics technicians, no offense, as I was one for many decades. To this day I can't do decent finish carpentry. Put me on the demo crew and I'm in my element. My dad called me a wood butcher.

 

[MossRoad]

A healthy mix is important. Here in indiana we experience a polar vortex pretty much every year. And for a few days there is no sun and the wind can be very limited.

Kinda funny people's perspective on the weather. Up here in South Bend, while we have had a few cold snaps here and there over the years, it's only for a few days and not every winter. When I was a kid, we used to go ice fishing during Christmas break. Now we're lucky to get on the ice the last couple weeks of January. This year was the first time I can remember safe ice before Christmas in several decades. And then it melted. Just getting safe again this week. Two years ago was the first year I didn't get to go ice fishing due to no safe ice. Last year was surgery. This year was last weekend.

We've got winter a few weeks later that ends a few weeks earlier for about the past 25 years.

 

[edgarrian]

Kinda funny people's perspective on the weather. Up here in South Bend, while we have had a few cold snaps here and there over the years, it's only for a few days and not every winter. When I was a kid, we used to go ice fishing during Christmas break. Now we're lucky to get on the ice the last couple weeks of January. This year was the first time I can remember safe ice before Christmas in several decades. And then it melted. Just getting safe again this week. Two years ago was the first year I didn't get to go ice fishing due to no safe ice. Last year was surgery. This year was last weekend.

We've got winter a few weeks later that ends a few weeks earlier for about the past 25 years.

Im from warsaw indiana and as a kid we had snowmobiles. We ran them often 80s and early 90s. We would also take a trips up to winsconsin. Definitely had longer harsher winters for sure. I can remember taking vehicles on the pond.

I worked in North Dakota for 15 years from 2005 to 2020 on a rotational schedule. I was on the completions side of the industry. I started with Schlumberger on frac. The first 7 years up there it got cold in november and didnt start to break until march. The last few 5 years winter would show up in december maybe warm up to 30 then dive down and do that through out the winter.

I worked a bit up in Alaska in Febuarary b/c thats the only time you can get to some sites as you have to cross water. The coldest it was -65. You are not allowed to do anything. You can't work out. You can't work in the shop b/c if you get hurt. Nobody is coming to get you.

Oddly i believe it was 2019 when Williston and Watford broke records for coldest ambient temps. I definitely dont miss those conditions

 

[MossRoad]

Im from warsaw indiana and as a kid we had snowmobiles. We ran them often 80s and early 90s. We would also take a trips up to winsconsin. Definitely had longer harsher winters for sure. I can remember taking vehicles on the pond.

I worked in North Dakota for 15 years from 2005 to 2020 on a rotational schedule. I was on the completions side of the industry. I started with Schlumberger on frac. The first 7 years up there it got cold in november and didnt start to break until march. The last few 5 years winter would show up in december maybe warm up to 30 then dive down and do that through out the winter.

I worked a bit up in Alaska in Febuarary b/c thats the only time you can get to some sites as you have to cross water. The coldest it was -65. You are not allowed to do anything. You can't work out. You can't work in the shop b/c if you get hurt. Nobody is coming to get you.

Oddly i believe it was 2019 when Williston and Watford broke records for coldest ambient temps. I definitely dont miss those conditions

I sold my snowmobile long ago. Just not enough enjoyment out of it compared to the motorcycle.

 

[Oaktree]

It's fun to complain about China's pollution until it's time to use just about anything, as it was likely made in China.
Seems the reputation of lousy goods from China depends on if it's some low-priced item from Amazon or AliExpress versus an old line name brand item, made in China to name brand specs. They can make some downright good and clever things, for a good price.

Gotta wonder which category those bargain-priced EVs they're selling 'most everywhere except North America fall under?

Meanwhile Woodmizer has discontinued mine the year after I bought it and is now selling an improved version for the same price I paid.

That never fails.

As a forester I wish there was more bio-energy generating plants to produce power. In my region there is one in northeastern Arizona and another one proposed in the Flagstaff area. Wood chips are not as economical as natural gas for an energy source, but when you look at the larger picture it makes sense. Having an outlet for forestry thinning material would reduce high severity wild fires and all of the negative outcomes: infrastructure damage, lives lost, flooding, soil erosion, lost timber, and rehabilitation costs such as soil stabilization and reforestation.

Forestry being one of the biggest forms of agriculture here in northern N.H., we used to have several bio-energy plants in the area. AFAIK all but one have been shut down, at least partially because of a psssing contest the owners got into with Eversource (state's largest electric provider). Apparently the price Eversource was willing to pay was less than what it cost to keep the plants operating. The upside to that is that bulk firewood prices (which use the same low-grade timber) have held steady.

 

[Oaktree]

I sold my snowmobile long ago. Just not enough enjoyment out of it compared to the motorcycle.

No plans to sell mine, but if it should go tracks up, I probably won't replace it. While this year has been an exception, winters have become increasingly mild with less snowfall, with the riding season seemingly getting shorter every year. Just not worth it.

 

[MossRoad]

No plans to sell mine, but if it should go tracks up, I probably won't replace it. While this year has been an exception, winters have become increasingly mild with less snowfall, with the riding season seemingly getting shorter every year. Just not worth it.

The last few years I didn't need to even plow my driveway. I did it out of boredom.

This year has been rather refreshing. We average about 65" of snow a season and have already had well over 70". Bad thing is the more snow we get, the mushier the ice gets for fishing. It acts like a blanket. Kinda sketchy last weekend. Hopefully it firmed up for this weekend.

 

[jyoutz]

Gotta wonder which category those bargain-priced EVs they're selling 'most everywhere except North America fall under?

That never fails.

Forestry being one of the biggest forms of agriculture here in northern N.H., we used to have several bio-energy plants in the area. AFAIK all but one have been shut down, at least partially because of a psssing contest the owners got into with Eversource (state's largest electric provider). Apparently the price Eversource was willing to pay was less than what it cost to keep the plants operating. The upside to that is that bulk firewood prices (which use the same low-grade timber) have held steady.

Yes, bio-energy is seldom competitive with gas or other sources of energy generation. But in most of the interior west, forests are overstocked and ready for high severity fires. When you look at the cost of these severe landscape scale fires, thinning forests to produce subsidized biofuels is far cheaper to society.

 

[edgarrian]

The last few years I didn't need to even plow my driveway. I did it out of boredom.

This year has been rather refreshing. We average about 65" of snow a season and have already had well over 70". Bad thing is the more snow we get, the mushier the ice gets for fishing. It acts like a blanket. Kinda sketchy last weekend. Hopefully it firmed up for this weekend.

I do miss that kind of snow fall. Were lucky to get 16" of snow in a season here in Montgomery County indiana. When we had snowmobiles on the farm my dad had a Phazer. Great sled back in the day. Then I had the SS and that thing would run. But those sleds to compare to the ones they have now days. When id get home from school id be on the snowmobile riding tell super. ON the weekend same deal. Get chores done id go ride. Generally get in trouble for being on it to long. Id run through 3 tanks of gas in a day. Just drift busting by the fences and roads.

 

[ponytug]

Gotta wonder which category those bargain-priced EVs they're selling 'most everywhere except North America fall under?

That never fails.

Forestry being one of the biggest forms of agriculture here in northern N.H., we used to have several bio-energy plants in the area. AFAIK all but one have been shut down, at least partially because of a psssing contest the owners got into with Eversource (state's largest electric provider). Apparently the price Eversource was willing to pay was less than what it cost to keep the plants operating. The upside to that is that bulk firewood prices (which use the same low-grade timber) have held steady.

That is a nice summary of what happened to the best of my knowledge as well. I don't see it changing as that plant was hanging on by a fingernail before the arm wrestling contest over the price of electricity.

As you point out, it keeps the price firewood down.

All the best,

Peter

 

[MossRoad]

I do miss that kind of snow fall. Were lucky to get 16" of snow in a season here in Montgomery County indiana. When we had snowmobiles on the farm my dad had a Phazer. Great sled back in the day. Then I had the SS and that thing would run. But those sleds to compare to the ones they have now days. When id get home from school id be on the snowmobile riding tell super. ON the weekend same deal. Get chores done id go ride. Generally get in trouble for being on it to long. Id run through 3 tanks of gas in a day. Just drift busting by the fences and roads.

Back in the earl 80s I had a ski doo tnt440 that I bought from a guy that bought a larger sled for his wife and him to go on long trail rides. He had quite a bit of work done to it. To the point it was a tad undependable. But when it ran, YIKES! off the line. I'd ride it on the local streets when they were closed due to heavy snow as I was on call at the airport. It topped out right under 100. Tried taking my wife on it a few times. I'd take off and be riding along and notice she wasn't on the back anymore. Oops!

So here's a sign of times past....

I worked at a fixed base operator on the south side of the airport. I lived on the north side of the airport. I'd get called in during snowstorms. So, I'd ride up to the gate by the control tower, push the button to talk to security, tell them it was Moss from the FBO and would like to ride around the service road to get to the south side. The gate would open, and I'd drive around the outskirts of the airport INSIDE the security fence, across the commercial ramp and over to the FBO.

Try that today....

 

[jyoutz]

That is a nice summary of what happened to the best of my knowledge as well. I don't see it changing as that plant was hanging on by a fingernail before the arm wrestling contest over the price of electricity.

As you point out, it keeps the price firewood down.

All the best,

Peter

Yeah, it’s true about the power generation economics. But sadly, a large industrial biomass market is the only way to thin the hundreds of thousands of acres that need treatment in the west to reduce high severity wildfires. Firewood barely makes a dent in thinning the acres that need treated.

 

[ponytug]

Yeah, it’s true about the power generation economics. But sadly, a large industrial biomass market is the only way to thin the hundreds of thousands of acres that need treatment in the west to reduce high severity wildfires. Firewood barely makes a dent in thinning the acres that need treated.

Yes, firewood is basically a round off error almost everywhere.

While I may be less sure about the need for an industrial biomass market, I do agree with you on the need to improve the fire resilience of forests, especially western forests. However, I don't have great ideas on how to get there, and commercial slash processing may be part of the solution. I personally struggle with the logistics of get the biomass to any type of plant and then getting the products, or power out to where it is needed at something close to break even. I think that your point earlier about the non-local benefits to having a biomass market is spot on; I just don't see what the mechanism(s) might be to transfer the funding.

I live in a zip code quite likely to lose home insurance due to the wildfire risk, so it is certainly top of mind. Several neighbors have already lost their insurance, despite being multi decade loyal customers. There is the offset between what the insurers (actuaries) perceive, and what residents and local governments perceive. As the insurers have data on the current risks, I am inclined to believe them.

All the best,

Peter

 

[jyoutz]

Yes, firewood is basically a round off error almost everywhere.

While I may be less sure about the need for an industrial biomass market, I do agree with you on the need to improve the fire resilience of forests, especially western forests. However, I don't have great ideas on how to get there, and commercial slash processing may be part of the solution. I personally struggle with the logistics of get the biomass to any type of plant and then getting the products, or power out to where it is needed at something close to break even. I think that your point earlier about the non-local benefits to having a biomass market is spot on; I just don't see what the mechanism(s) might be to transfer the funding.

I live in a zip code quite likely to lose home insurance due to the wildfire risk, so it is certainly top of mind. Several neighbors have already lost their insurance, despite being multi decade loyal customers. There is the offset between what the insurers (actuaries) perceive, and what residents and local governments perceive. As the insurers have data on the current risks, I am inclined to believe them.

All the best,

Peter

In the Southwest region we have had an operating biomass plant in eastern AZ for over 20 years and it has helped to remove the sub-sawlog sized excess timber on over 26-30K acres annually. Yes is has been subsidized as a percentage of green energy required power generation. A new plant is planned for 2028 in the Flagstaff area. Still we are talking about stepping up to treat 50K+ acres annually. A drop in the bucket compared to the millions of acres that need thinning to reduce wildfire hazards and improve forest heath in the interior west. The people who criticize and say more should be done to reduce high severity fires have no clue about the immense scale of the situation.

 

[paulsharvey]

Biomass, wood fired plants... maybe im jaded, but there is like a $2.1b plant north of Gainesville FLa, that the operator is being paid to not run, as thats cheaper than actually running it.

Given the choice of being next to a biomass plant vs solar, id take solar all day. Biomass has a lot of traffic, chipper (or chipped off site), and massive piles of either wood or chips.

Basically city agrees to buy out a contract, to idle the plant vs pay operating costs. To the tune of $1.2b to have a non operating plant. I had to reread the details but I guess it was either $70m/year for 30 years; or buy it for $1.2b and shut it down?


What i never saw asked, was, how much to retro fit to gas? I would think it would cost a fair bit, but in the end, its heat source make water hot, hot water make wheel turn, wheel make magic go down wires...

 

[MossRoad]

...The people who criticize and say more should be done to reduce high severity fires have no clue about the immense scale of the situation.

Just rake the forest.