New Diesel Truck-- Buy Now, or Wait?

[plowhog]

Humboldt Ford in Winnemucca. Plenty of new diesel trucks for less than $100,000.

I checked that and found a number offered around $75k.

I also checked a Chevrolet dealer in Northern NV that has diesel trucks at $90,000+ MSRP. And on top of MSRP, they are adding $2,500 - $5,000. So, close to $100k. Yikes.

Seems odd to find more than 20k difference between competing models. I've only now started shopping so there must be other factors involved.

 

[dmccarty]

I have been following the truck market for the last 12 months.

Short answer is, if you don't have to buy now, wait.

Inventory is starting to stack up at dealers and they will HAVE to cut prices. I have seen reports that this is happening now, and TV advertisements are certainly becoming more frequent and with incentives.

Vehicle prices are outrageous and unaffordable to most people. With the high interest rates it is even more so.

I can't remember if it was nationwide, or just a region, but Dodge has a 9 month supply of vehicles. I think they were trucks. At the other end of the supply is Toyota, which has a 30 day supply, but wants to get to 60 days. Jeep, Dodge and RAM really seem to be in trouble with the high prices causing inventory to build. This seems to be happening with Ford and GM as well.

I have been watching the Car Edge videos on YouTube, https://www.youtube.com/@caredge, and am subscribing to their service to see price data and availability.

Check out their videos, they have plenty about getting a deal, the car business, and the current market. I knew quite a bit about buying a car but I have learned stuff from channel.

Car Edge is a father and son operation. The father used to be a dealer manager, sales guy, etc., and the son creates their website and content.

The IIC(Idiots In Charge) of the Big Three somehow thought that people can afford $80-100,000+ vehicles. They built up huge inventories of unaffordable vehicles then the interest rates went up to make things worse for everyone. The amount of money the dealers are having to pay for the inventory sitting on the lot, and not moving, is really hurting them. Not to mention the IIC thinking a mass of people were going to rush out and buy electric vehicles.

The car companies have taken advantage of people during the pandemic, made huge amounts of money, made bad decisions on which vehicles to build, and now will reap the seeds they have sown. The simply will have to discount the vehicle prices because they are unaffordable, and they longer the vehicles, sit the more it costs the dealer and car company. Some banks are getting out of the car business...

 

[riptides]

I checked that and found a number offered around $75k.

I also checked a Chevrolet dealer in Northern NV that has diesel trucks at $90,000+ MSRP. And on top of MSRP, they are adding $2,500 - $5,000. So, close to $100k. Yikes.

Seems odd to find more than 20k difference between competing models. I've only now started shopping so there must be other factors involved.

I have bought four trucks and one car from a particular dealership close to me.

Here is a sample:

New 2024 Chevrolet Silverado 2500 HD For Sale at Country Chevrolet Inc. | VIN: 2GC4YREY8R1117503

New 2024 Chevrolet Silverado 2500 HD from Country Chevrolet Inc. in Warrenton, VA, 20186. Call (540) 216-0479 for more information.

www.countrychevrolet.com

 

[slckeys]

I spec'd out a '24 GMC 4 door, 6.5 foot bed, 4wd with minimal electronics like my '05 out of curiosity the other week. "Only" came to 65k I think it was. Mine was 44k new according to the window sticker I have in the glovebox. So below 100k should be doable.

 

[tradosaurus]

I would like to have a new 3/4 heavy duty diesel pickup. My 2011 GMC 2500HD has given me excellent service. I have maintained it well, its running fine now, but since it has over 250k miles I am thinking of getting a new one. Now 13 years old, I feel I need to re-start the clock on a new truck for the next 13 years.

Prices are stupid, of course. That is what it is. My bigger concern is the overall changing of the vehicle landscape with electric, hybrids, etc. As more of these emerge into the market, commanding larger market share, I feel that getting a diesel powered vehicle might become more difficult or expensive in the future. I have seen where electric vehicles are retracting somewhat, but hybrids are taking up the slack. Neither of those fit my mission.

I cross Donner Summit (over 7,000 ft elevation) weekly. Sometimes towing 8,000-10,000 pounds behind me. So a 3/4 ton truck, diesel engine, heavy duty brakes, and exhaust brake fits that need nicely.

What are your thoughts on the merits of buying now, or keep pressing on with my existing truck?

It's not my money so I would buy new.

13 yr old truck with 250K miles is just getting broken in. Unless you start getting expensive repairs I would keep it.

 

[ericm979]

I don’t think they are going to do away with trucks you would be looking at in the next couple of years. Would they keep you from driving one in California? That’s nearly impossible to predict. When it comes down to it you need to ignore the politics, the prices because that’s impossible to predict, the real question is do you need one now. If you do now is the time to buy.

CA's current laws will stop sales of new internal combustion cars and light trucks (what CA calls a pickup) in 2035. Medium and heavy trucks in 2026. There's no mention of taking existing IC cars and light trucks off the road in the current law. Things can change but once they make laws like that they don't move the timeline up. Sometimes they move it back if manufacturers are not ready.

For a while manufacturers were making two versions of many vehicles- a CA compliant one and a 49 state one. That's stopped in motorcycles and cars, and likely diesel pickups. They're all CA compliant. CA regs are no longer as different, there are a number of other states that have adopted CA regs, and manufacturers hate supporting two versions of a product. The emissions sticker under the hood will say if it meets CA emissions.

There may be good tax reasons for buying out of state rather than CA. Someone who lives both in CA and out of state will already be familiar with the tax issues. If you can keep it registered out of state without getting hassled by anyone it's probably cheaper.

New truck prices are really high now and the manufacturers are trying to hang on to those prices as long as they can. If you try to wait them out you may be waiting a while. I've been looking for a new or new to me truck for a while. The good thing is that the value of my current truck is hardly lower than what I bought it for six years ago.

 

[Buppies]

Northern Virginia advertises $15000 off msrp

 

[Hay Dude]

I don’t think they are going to do away with trucks you would be looking at in the next couple of years. Would they keep you from driving one in California? That’s nearly impossible to predict. When it comes down to it you need to ignore the politics, the prices because that’s impossible to predict, the real question is do you need one now. If you do now is the time to buy.

California is vowing to end ICE vehicles by 2035

California moves toward phasing out sale of gas-powered vehicles by 2035

California plans to require all new cars, trucks and SUVs to run on electricity or hydrogen by 2035 under a policy approved Thursday by regulators that seeks a dramatic cut in carbon emissions and an eventual end to gasoline-powered vehicles.

www.pbs.org

We all know the way California goes, the rest of the country eventually follows.

 

[BleedingOrange]

If you can afford it, buy it now. Start enjoying it ASAP. No guarantees on when your time is up. The sooner you get it, the longer you get to enjoy it. To many people wait to long to enjoy all the cash they have worked a lifetime for. I,m 75 years old, and have seen first hand how kids of friends that received good sized inheritances blew away their portion in no time. You earned it, spend it and leave as little as possible to those left behind. To some this may sound kinda harsh, but I have seen it first hand way to many times. Comments like my parents would roll over in their graves if they knew how fast we blew the inheritance they left us kinda get you thinking about our frugal ways, and what we should really leave behind.

 

[Hay Dude]

If you can afford it, buy it now. Start enjoying it ASAP. No guarantees on when your time is up. The sooner you get it, the longer you get to enjoy it.

Agree.
Life is short. Play hard.

 

[Code54]

You are both correct - cant take it with you

 

[mikester]

The only vehicles I see in dealer lots these days are large pickup trucks and SUVs

I'm guessing you have some negotiating power right now to buy and over sized fuel guzzler

 

[Hay Dude]

The only vehicles I see in dealer lots these days are large pickup trucks and SUVs

I'm guessing you have some negotiating power right now to buy and over sized fuel guzzler

They aren’t a fuel guzzler if you use it for its’ intended purposes

 

[Buppies]

I saw last night prices went back up on Rams. I think as others have said prices on way down soon due to glut in market deterioration of people unable to buy thru credit etc

 

[check]

I saw last night prices went back up on Rams. I think as others have said prices on way down soon due to glut in market deterioration of people unable to buy thru credit etc

I think there are a bunch of deals right now that are expiring soon.

 

[dmccarty]

I think there are a bunch of deals right now that are expiring soon.

And if the inventory is high, and getting higher, there will be more incentives. Then one has to negotiate with the dealers. They are not likely to advertise how low they will go.

From the comments I have read on the videos I linked earlier, people are saying some dealers with high inventories are not lowering prices. At some point they will have too to move the inventory due to floor plan expense, aka, the interest payment on each vehicle on the lot.

We had noticed during the lock down there were not car advertisements on TV. No need since they were selling what they could get over MSRP. We see lots of car advertisements now and they have been increasing. Ford, Dodge/RAM and GM trucks are showing up quite frequently with TV ads. Surprisingly, so is the Nissan Rogue. Figured that would be selling well.

 

[D&D]

They aren’t a fuel guzzler if you use it for its’ intended purposes

Blows my mind how many appear to have 75K + of “grocery getters” for daily driving. The ones I personally know only use them 3-4 times a year as a truck.

 

[Tomtint]

In my experience, waiting ..almost always costs more. ..The only thing that may pop up is a factory rebate of some kind. I don't expect the MSRP to ever fall back.. they always go up. As someone else said, fuel prices are going to spike again if there isn't a change in office. If the status quo remains in 24, Diesel will be well north of 5-6.00 ph.. which would likely make the big trucks less marketable..

 

[old and tired]

I cross Donner Summit (over 7,000 ft elevation) weekly. Sometimes towing 8,000-10,000 pounds behind me...

I'm one who will drive until the wheels fall off but that approach for you could get you killed...

Think of it as a life insurance policy and get yourself a new truck (for safety).

 

[ponytug]

I'm one who will drive until the wheels fall off but that approach for you could get you killed...

Think of it as a life insurance policy and get yourself a new truck (for safety).

I'm the same way. But I do draw the line at safety.

I had a high mileage vehicle that I was driving in the back of beyond, and heard a loud "klunk" from underneath. I stopped, crawled under and looked around, afraid that I had dinged something with an unseen rock like the crankcase or gas tank (it happened once to me, not pretty). A mount for a shock absorber had cracked off due to metal fatigue. The vehicle became an "in town" only vehicle then and there, and I sold it fairly soon thereafter. Still, I saw it around town for years afterwards.

All the best,

Peter