Corona Virus #6

[Gale Hawkins]

Israeli scientist: You're not going to see millions of people die from COVID-19 | The Times of Israel

This is a low tech article that I found helpful.

 

[txdon]

How important is the ventilator? Are there any statistics on how may people need the ventilator and then survive and get off the ventilator?

I think I remember seeing 1 in 3 that have to go on a ventilator die.

80% have mild symptoms. 8% of coronavirus patients have mild symptoms — here'''s what they are - Business Insider
Of the 20% left, what % of those need a ventilator?
And of those on the vent how many get off the ventilator. 2/3? of what %. Source?

 

[MikePA]

A grocery store threw out $35,��� in food that a woman intentionally coughed on, sparking coronavirus fears, police said - CNN
wow, wonder if the virus fears set this woman over the edge...can you imagine?

What was missing from the CNN article you linked to was the following, which was included in the article in local sources.

A Pennsylvania grocery store said it had to throw out $35,000 worth of food after a woman "purposely" coughed on it in what the co-owner called a "twisted prank" amid the coronavirus pandemic. Police are investigating the woman who Gerrity's Supermarket describes as a "chronic problem in the community."

 

[k0ua]

80% have mild symptoms. 8% of coronavirus patients have mild symptoms — here'''s what they are - Business Insider
Of the 20% left, what % of those need a ventilator?
And of those on the vent how many get off the ventilator. 2/3? of what %. Source?

Ny as a example, roughly: according to Cuomo. 37,000 TESTED positive, Remember many more have it and have not been tested. He says of the positives 80 (or slightly more) resolve without hospitalization. So roughly 7000 hospitalized. of that number he has 1260 in ICU on vents. Then it gets a little hazy. He wouldn't say how many died on vents. He did say that the length of time on the vent usually determined if you were going to live or die. Long term, you die, short term you might make it. From "what I have heard" maybe 1/3 to 1/2 die on the vent. So if you go on the vent, it ain't pretty. But all of this is pretty anecdotal, but maybe the actual ICU cases he had an exact number for is a real number. So that ain't so good. But lets put it this way, if you go on the vent, your chances may be as low as 50/50. It is time that your affairs are put in order. This if from Coumo's morning briefing. (they drone on and one forever) but he shows slides if you want to turn the volume off. Death by Powerpoint..

 

[houstonscott]

Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Drastically Revises Model | The Daily Wire

 

[k0ua]

Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Drastically Revises Model | The Daily Wire

Well, that is an interesting article. Hope it is right. I have been saying out the outset that the number of people who have it and have had it is huge. However I was ridiculed as a "denier" for some time. I have run hot and cold on this virus outbreak at times thinking "this is just another flu, maybe a bad one, but still the flu" to "batten down the hatches, we are in for it". I still don't know which is right or if the real answer is somewhere in the middle. BUT so far the the death toll in the US is VERY VERY small. And yes in a cold analysis, many of the people that died would have died anyway. and YES the seasonal flu in the time we have been tracking this has killed an order of magnitude greater numbers of people. I do know this much, you can wreck an economy in less than a month. That much I know for sure.

 

[ovrszd]

I do know this much, you can wreck an economy in less than a month. That much I know for sure.

Truth. World economy.

 

[/pine]

There is no precedent for the interruption of the economy...if we can assume anything it is that the longer the interruption the more permanent (long term) damage will be done and the longer it will take to come back...

 

[k0ua]

There is no precedent for the interruption of the economy...if we can assume anything it is that the longer the interruption the more permanent damage will be done and the longer it will take to come back...

I sure hope you are not right. And I have this sinking feeling you might be...

 

[ovrszd]

This is an opportunity for us to learn and adjust our productivity.

Visited with the crew that built my house and shop a year ago. They are building a new restaurant building in a small town near here. The windows and doors are backordered from Andersen with no expected delivery date.

Their hardware supplier has told them he expects six month delays on replenishing nail and staple stock.

Maybe we should reassess our World Trade philosophy?