This one is for Texas --IKE

[dmccarty]

Dan -- 34 feet is like the worst case scenario forever and ever and a cat 6 (if there was such a thing) I don't know where underground is getting their data -- but the boss just ran a model for me and worst case for this storm is around 20 feet.

Website link is:
Wunder Blog : Weather Underground

My 34 feet number is from a chart put out by NOAA published on the link. From the text with the figure, "...The plot is the MAXIMUM high water for a worst-case scenario Category 4 hurricane moving at the worst possible angle at the worst possible forward speed...."

What a Cat 5 storm would do is a bit beyond scary. Only a bit of the coast, from what I gather is Liberty county near Chambers, would get the 30+ surge. The rest of the cost is only 20+ feet of surge.

Dr. Master's page does have this link for surge evacuation zones, Texas Emergency Management Press Releases and storm surge risk for the Texas coast, Texas Storm Surge : Weather Underground

Later,
Dan

 

[txdon]

Don -- 100mph winds for Lee county is BS ... according to my guys - you might see half that -- which is strong enuff anyway.

Austin WAS saying that it would still be a class 2 hurricane in Lee County. They must have talked to your guys NOW they have it further east and only 50mph winds here, of course they will change it a few more times before Friday.

At noon the traffic on 290 and 77 was really busy in Giddings. The evacuees are heading North.

 

[mikim]

Bernice is trying to figure out how to put 10 people in that 12 x 60 mobile ....but she's currently out at the barn getting the AC fixed (again) ...which will help. We've also had an offer from a weekend neighbor up there to use their double wide. IF she can find the keys to it -- I put 'em someplace really safe.......?????dunno????... Tomorrow's 9a.m. conf call will tell us the score.....BUT my guy is sticking with the est. 50mph wind at Fedor....maybe a bit less downtown where the buildings can block the wind.

 

[Tdog]

txdon, Mike & other coastal Texans, Ya'll stay safe.

I've got family in Richmond, but can't convince them to leave.

Jack

 

[texbaylea]

I think almost everybody has forgotten how bad a hurricane can be or have never been through one. I had hoped that I never would again.

Vernon

 

[Bird]

Vernon, my parents spent the Winters at Port Aransas for many years, then lived there year round a number of years. They lived in a small mobile home in a park that had both small mobile homes and RVs. One year when a hurricane was coming, friends of theirs, in a travel trailer, hooked up and moved up near San Antonio to wait out the storm. None of the trailers in the park at Port Aransas were damaged, but the couple who went to San Antonio had their trailer turned over and destroyed by a tornado that put both of them in the hospital. Fortunately, they both survived and recovered. I see in the news that folks in Houston have been asked to "hunker down" instead of leaving this time in order to avoid gridlock on the highways.

 

[texbaylea]

Vernon, my parents spent the Winters at Port Aransas for many years, then lived there year round a number of years. They lived in a small mobile home in a park that had both small mobile homes and RVs. One year when a hurricane was coming, friends of theirs, in a travel trailer, hooked up and moved up near San Antonio to wait out the storm. None of the trailers in the park at Port Aransas were damaged, but the couple who went to San Antonio had their trailer turned over and destroyed by a tornado that put both of them in the hospital. Fortunately, they both survived and recovered. I see in the news that folks in Houston have been asked to "hunker down" instead of leaving this time in order to avoid gridlock on the highways.

If I still lived in the same neighborhood in Houston I grew up in I would have hunkered down too. We were living in Dickinson while I worked at NASA. I built the house with the finished floor about 18" above Carla flood stage and we got 3.5' of water in 1979 inside the house. With subsidence and what all that house, which backs up on Dickinson Bayou, now has a finish floor elevation of about 15' above sea level. I have enough experience to know that this was coming again just not when.

I, too, have heard stories about people have evacuated from storms only to be in worse shape. You have to play the odds as you see them.

Vernon

 

[texasjohn]

I left this AM at 4:30am for Corpus, picked up my MIL and scampered back to Jarrell...I'm here to tell you that the absolute minimum time for the round trip is 10.5 hrs. Road down and back was absolutely no problem.

I used to live in Shoreacres and La Porte... houston/nasa area...my worst case scenario was a hurricane hitting Galveston at high tide with winds pushing water up the ship channel... last I heard, that's what will happen...

A little appreciated aspect of the roads in Houston area is that they all seem to go thru a dip... and, in any kind of strong storm, that dip is filled with water, preventing movement along that road.

I'm very afraid that gridlock on the roads will occur on Fri, then the hurricane and tornados will hit around midnight with all the vehicles parked on all the roads... it isn't going to be a pretty sight.... the Houston area is full of bayous and low places and subsidance areas.....this is true much farther inland than is generally recognized.... even a regular 5 inch rain fills dips and ditches and keeps people from getting off the roads and home.... The TV is just now predicting 15 inches of rain .....

I hope all you good TBN folks stay safe.....I live on top of a hill and generator is primed and ready with standby fuel... don't expect to use it, but ready if need be.

 

[lrunge]

I lived North of Houston (Spring, Tx) in the early 80's. I was there in 1983 when Alicia hit Galveston as a Cat 3. This one is being compared to Alicia and on a similar track. I lost part of my roof. I stayed in the house and watched the whole thing. Not interested in repeating that. Downtown Houston was a sea of glass. All the highrises lost lots of their glass. Lots of trees down. No power for 3 days. I remember long lines for ice and charging $10 for a bag. Here's a link to Alicia for comparison. Hunker down and take care.
HURRICANE ALICIA 1983. A LOOK BACK. (LOOKS LIKE THE SAME TRACK) - MyWeatherLive.com. --A-LOOK-BACK.-(LOOKS-LIKE-THE-SAME-TRACK)

 

[dmccarty]

The TV is just now predicting 15 inches of rain .....

Floyd dropped up to 19-20 inches in some places in NC when it barely touched the state and moved rapidly up the coast. Worst flooding in hundreds of years in NC. It was said it was the worst destruction since the War Between the States. From what I saw when the water was still up and later helping people clean up it was bad bad bad. Places flooded that had never flooded in memory. Floyd was "only" a Cat 2 storm.

The sat images have Ike taking up much of the gulf. I read yesterday that Ike is larger than Katrina. Ike be big.

Good Luck To You Texans and everyone else that Ike visits after landfall.

Dan

 

[tallyho8]

Ike is ove 100 miles south of us now and we have some wind gusts that were similar to when Gustav passed close by last week. I surely didn't expect it to be this bad around here for Ike. I expect to lose electricity anytime now. This storm has high winds for a very long way north of it so even if you are 50 miles north of where the eye is going to pass be prepared for the worst.
Good luck.

 

[mikim]

The 3 a.m. briefing from the NHC was not full of good news. Ike is big and bad and he's coming ashore between Freeport and Galveston. Because of his size it just don't matter exactly where the center is. The tide surge is going to be awful. Major flooding from the surge will occur and surprise a lot of people - even though we warned on it -- lots of folks didn't listen. I just heard that there are people on High Island calling for rescue....they were told to evac on Wed. He'll be turning when it comes ashore so the areas west of a line from College Station to Yoakum will see some wind and rain but nothing to be too concerned about. Remember all those pictures of NO with the flood waters that went for miles? It's our turn. Half of Galveston and Brazoria counties will be under water. If I don't get back on here later it will be because comms went down. The office is in a cat 5 building .....I guess we're going to give it a test.

 

[jinman]

Being a hurricane dummy, this is a very interesting track. It shows the remnants of Ike going as far as Ohio by Monday morning.

NOAA Ike Track

 

[texbaylea]

The 3 a.m. briefing from the NHC was not full of good news. Ike is big and bad and he's coming ashore between Freeport and Galveston. Because of his size it just don't matter exactly where the center is. The tide surge is going to be awful. Major flooding from the surge will occur and surprise a lot of people - even though we warned on it -- lots of folks didn't listen. I just heard that there are people on High Island calling for rescue....they were told to evac on Wed. He'll be turning when it comes ashore so the areas west of a line from College Station to Yoakum will see some wind and rain but nothing to be too concerned about. Remember all those pictures of NO with the flood waters that went for miles? It's our turn. Half of Galveston and Brazoria counties will be under water. If I don't get back on here later it will be because comms went down. The office is in a cat 5 building .....I guess we're going to give it a test.

Mike
I hope that your forecasters are right. That will make it easier on me and those west of me. Our Lee county members may be able to coast through this. Thanks.

I pulled out my very old PTO generator in a possibly vane hope that I can get it running. Haven't touched in over 5 years.

Good Luck everybody.

Vernon

 

[dmccarty]

In case anyone near the TX coast has NOT seen this info from the Hurricane Local Statement from the Galveston National Weather Service office .

All neighborhoods... and possibly entire coastal communities... will be inundated during high tide. Persons not heeding evacuation orders in single family one or two story homes will face certain death. Many residences of average construction directly on the coast will be destroyed. Widespread and devastating personal property damage is likely elsewhere. Vehicles left behind will likely be swept away. Numerous roads will be swamped... some may be washed away by the water. Entire flood prone coastal communities will be cutoff. Water levels may exceed 9 feet for more than a mile inland. Coastal residents in multi-story facilities risk being cutoff. Conditions will be worsened by battering waves. Such waves will exacerbate property damage... with massive destruction of homes... including those of block construction. Damage from beach erosion could take years to repair.

Good Luck,
Dan

 

[mikim]

Vern -- that statement about that line from CS to Yoakum is my perception ... not from the forecasters. Totally UN official and I'm not a forecaster --- it's just what I was seeing looking over their shoulders. I would GUESS that the winds might be in the 40 - 50 range and rain ....????? dunno .... but the storm should move through fast enough to not be too bad.
Dan -- the fellas that write that HLS are right here --- and keep in mind that they can't exaggerate..... I sometimes do --- but they don't -- We have our best forecasters on duty .....actually all but one are here --- but the good ones are on top of it. I setup cots in our conf room for 'em to try to grab some sleep now and again. We have one fella that hasn't been here but 2 weeks or so -- moved here from Montana--- he's getting quite a baptism of fire!

 

[dmccarty]

Mike said,

...and keep in mind that they can't exaggerate...

In regards to the Galveston forecast,

Persons not heeding evacuation orders in single family one or two story homes will face certain death.

That scares the s..... out of me. That is a rather strong statement. Like I said, Floyd was a Cat 2 and it BARELY touched eastern NC and it left very quickly but caused massive flooding. Storm surge was not the problem. It was the 15-20 inches of rain. Ike is bringing some pretty big surge hundreds of miles of coastline AND 15 inches of rain.

WHO did you Texan's tick off?

Whatever you did, say you are sorry and dont do it again.

Good Luck,
Dan

 

[mikim]

That scares the s..... out of me

That's the whole point Dan -- some people won't listen unless you get right in their face about it and get really blunt. It's a strong statement but also a true one for along the coast. There are already people trapped that rescue crews are having to try to get to. quote Ron White "you can't fix stupid". I have no doubt that there are people trapped that don't even know they're trapped ....or don't believe the seriousness of Ike ....and the prognosis for them is not good at all.
Ike is currently forecast to be a strong 2 or weak 3 -- but the surge ---omg ---not gonna be good.

 

[texbaylea]

Vern -- that statement about that line from CS to Yoakum is my perception ... not from the forecasters. Totally UN official and I'm not a forecaster --- it's just what I was seeing looking over their shoulders. I would GUESS that the winds might be in the 40 - 50 range and rain ....????? dunno .... but the storm should move through fast enough to not be too bad.
Dan -- the fellas that write that HLS are right here --- and keep in mind that they can't exaggerate..... I sometimes do --- but they don't -- We have our best forecasters on duty .....actually all but one are here --- but the good ones are on top of it. I setup cots in our conf room for 'em to try to grab some sleep now and again. We have one fella that hasn't been here but 2 weeks or so -- moved here from Montana--- he's getting quite a baptism of fire!

Mike
I understand. 40-50 mph winds are what I kinda planned for so maybe we will be alright. We have one really vulnerable window but I physically cannot handle full sheet of plywood like I use to. We are just going to hope that the trees hold on to their limbs. The next time we have some able body people around here I will get some window boards cut and stashed.

I agree that you cannot fix stupid. It seems like every major storm we hear of people that don't wake up until it is too late, putting rescue personnel in unnecessary jeopardy trying to save their sorry b**ts.

Hang in there. I will be interested to hear how Dickinson fares. I am hoping that the young people who bought our house come through OK.

Vernon

 

[texbaylea]

Mike said, ......

WHO did you Texan's tick off?

Whatever you did, say you are sorry and dont do it again.

Good Luck,
Dan

Dan
I think that it was past our time. We have been extraordinarily lucky while Florida and the East coast have been beat upon repeatedly.

Oh, Well, It had to happen some time
Vernon