New Tractor Sales Are Declining

[52farmer]

Great question,I have 5 quotes on compact tractors 45-60 hp and none of them have any kind of sizable discounts,a couple give me the impression its take or leave it.Trade in value seems to be lagging also.Maybe with it being early in the year they are waiting to see what kind of buying traffic they get.

 

[Hay Dude]

Yet demand is still strong and the economy is humming along.

Those handouts really helped. People also have a sense of “buy now, it’s only gonna get worse”

 

[tacticalturnip]

Those handouts really helped. People also have a sense of “buy now, it’s only gonna get worse”

Ayuh, once it's physically in someone's possession it's harder to take it from them.

 

[Hay Dude]

Another big reason for strong buying:
People are very freaked out by shortages and the all new & dreaded “supply chain interruptions”.

With everything made offshore now, who knows what the next world catastrophe might be to interrupt cars, trucks, tractors, toilet paper, toothpaste, fuel, medicine, computers, etc. All those products rely on overseas supply chains.

Anyone starting to see the light?
With all the job openings we have, it would be in our best security interest to start making things here at home again.

No, not to become isolationists, but to reassure people that when the next Covid hits and our superior intellects shut the world economy down, we have at least some of the things we need made here.

Maybe people would chill out on buying everything if they were assured they can still get the things they want?

 

[finn1]

Yep. It’s high inflation, higher taxes, higher costs of living and, higher interest rates all combined together to make for a pitiful economic outlook.
Now the threat of higher corp taxes, 100% of which will be passed to the consumer and now threats of higher cap gains taxes. That doesn’t help.

I thing taxes, in general, are at historically low levels.

lots of negativity and doom and gloom from some sectors that apparently want the country to fail.

 

[5030]

it is what it is and like HD, I think it's gonna go bust and soon.

 

[rScotty]

I thing taxes, in general, are at historically low levels.

lots of negativity and doom and gloom from some sectors that apparently want the country to fail.

I don't believe that they want the country to fail, but it seems that many are convinced that it will fail unless the media and the politicians can save it.

 

[5030]

media and the politicians can save it.

fat chance of that.

 

[52farmer]

The media and politicans belong in a boat with no oars.

 

[TN8Man]

I don't believe that they want the country to fail, but it seems that many are convinced that it will fail unless the media and the politicians can save it.

The strange thing is that all the actions taken to address the economy is actually causing our economy to fail.

 

[Cahaba Valley Farm]

Maybe with it being early in the year they are waiting to see what kind of buying traffic they get.

They definitely are. They're watching the market like a hawk but so am I

 

[5030]

The strange thing is that all the actions taken to address the economy is actually causing our economy to fail.

It appears that way to me as well....

 

[Sid Post]

I thing taxes, in general, are at historically low levels.

lots of negativity and doom and gloom from some sectors that apparently want the country to fail.

My taxes aren't at an all-time low. This year, federal income tax for me looks like it will be up ~30% according to my tax people due to changes in depreciation and deductions I can't take against my gross income which is also down this year.

In terms of negativity and 'gloom and doom', it is the best of times for some but, the worst of times for many. TV personalities and Congress may be in a good position to buy Teslas and mansions but, most around me are struggling to pay rent, utilities, and buy groceries.

Inflation and layoffs are biting a lot of people really hard. Being self-employed, I can't say I'm being laid off but, opportunities for income are significantly down overall while costs for what is left are way up.

At this point, I'm spending most of my time right now repairing (or building new) fences and cleaning up various pieces of property for better production in the future. Needed home repairs are on hold because the only people available expect $150/hr for their helper and more than that for their services.

I'm starting to think I need to quit farming and ranching and go to a trade school to learn house framing or roofing.

 

[Sid Post]

I don't believe that they want the country to fail, but it seems that many are convinced that it will fail unless the media and the politicians can save it.

How in the world do you think increased inflation, public debt, and all the ESG/Green initiative are going to allow "the media and politicians" to save it?

 

[Sid Post]

The media and politicans belong in a boat with no oars.

... in the Bermuda Triangle!

 

[airbiscuit]

There are lots of moving parts to the Global and US economy. I think economists are scratching their heads trying to make sense of it. The job market is still crazy strong, and that gives hope for some optimism.

Yahoo Life
Irina Ivanova
March 2, 2023·1 min read

Layoffs have spiked in recent months, with technology companies that flourished during the pandemic cutting tens of thousands of jobs.
So where are all those laid-off workers going? Hiring company ZipRecruiter recently ran a survey to answer the question, and the results suggest many of those who lost their jobs are doing just fine. Of the employees who were laid off in December or January, just over half have already found other work, while another quarter said they have a job offer in hand, according to the poll of 2,000 people taken in late January.
Workers who were laid off from jobs in advertising, the auto industry and transportation were most likely to have received a job offer since their layoff. And somewhat surprisingly, 80% of workers who found new employment after getting laid said they didn't have to take a pay cut.
"Typically after a layoff, people struggle to find new work, and often they're forced to take new jobs at lower pay," said Julia Pollak, ZipRecruiter's chief economist. "We were surprised at how many people in the survey said they are not worse off, but actually better off."

 

[2manyrocks]

No, the era I am speaking about is today. Specifically, the rates I am talking about were as of last week when I was involved in looking at several houses being considered by a young blue-collar working couple with two children.

Isn't it amazing that a group of people can all look at the same chart and come away with completely differnt opinions? I look at that chart and think that when looked at historically, the present rates seem very good. Yes, rates were the same back in the 1960s and 70s....but I also know that typically required a 25% down payment. Today's overall rate is better than that.

Today's world seems full of promise to me. The financial numbers seem ordinary. What is not so ordinary is the amount of attention being paid to them.....and the odd lack of optimism.

rScotty

7% 30 year mortgage looks great to someone who lived through late 1970s rates. The old mortgage lending formula was to lend at 6%, pay the depositor 3% and keep 3% for administrative costs. 7% in an abstract kind of way doesn't seem so bad except when the house being financed used to sell for 1/2 todays asking price in 2019 or earlier causing someone's monthly payment to be pretty high.

Between 7% interest, the still elevated price of houses, property taxes assessed at the new elevated prices, insurance costs reflecting todays cost of materials and labor, all that combined has made housing less affordable today than in 2006, not a good omen of where things may be headed.

 

[Sid Post]

7% 30 year mortgage looks great to someone who lived through late 1970s rates. The old mortgage lending formula was to lend at 6%, pay the depositor 3% and keep 3% for administrative costs. 7% in an abstract kind of way doesn't seem so bad except when the house being financed used to sell for 1/2 todays asking price in 2019 or earlier causing someone's monthly payment to be pretty high.

Between 7% interest, the still elevated price of houses, property taxes assessed at the new elevated prices, insurance costs reflecting todays cost of materials and labor, all that combined has made housing less affordable today than in 2006, not a good omen of where things may be headed.

Housing is a really bad area for many people.

As noted, mortgages, property taxes, insurance, etc. are all based on higher housing values which have driven up the costs of owning your house significantly beyond simple inflation in the individual components of home ownership.

For example: 5% inflation on property taxes is not 10% when the house value is doubled. It doubles the total so you could argue the true increase is 100% for the doubled value plus 10% for inflation on the new price.

 

[Hay Dude]

How many people got HELOC loans during Covid to do fix ups and the rates were like 3%?
Now they’re 8.5%.
Now most people can’t do much anything because materials costs are still high and rates are high, too.

I don’t see “best of times” right now. I saw best of times roughly 16-19. Those were some damn good times.
I sure hope someone can come along and fix this mess cause all I see is the brink of war with 2 other superpowers, high interest rates, crazy inflation and a country more divided than I have ever seen.

Don’t urinate on me and tell me it’s raining. lol

 

[Torvy]

Unemployment rates are twisted. You need to evaluate the total number of employed people. Unemployment only measures those who are actually looking for work. The emperor has no clothes.