New Tractor Sales Are Declining

[airbiscuit]

That's generous of you. It reminds me of graphs from the sales department of a large corporation that I did some work for. Their sales dept. always skewed their graphs to back up a sales pitch - they weren't there to display exact numerical data.

It wasn't a problem. Everyone realized that sales graphs are made with a different goal.

Simiar thinking led to the Nebraska Tractor Tests.

rScotty

Sales graphs were notorious for manipulating the y axis scale, or doing cumulative vs monthly figures so there was always an upward trend.

The best moment I remember was back in the day of overhead transparencies when an accountant showed a graph with a disturbing downward trend. Then he flipped it over so it had an upward trend and said this what it should be. He then said I always wanted t do that. It took the sting off the message.

 

[airbiscuit]

Good but confusing graph. Tends to confirm my point about sales declining in the fall.
Note that all lines start out well below 20 in January but are about 20 and above in December.

That could be explained by chasing year end numbers (and sucking the sales out of January) for incentives. I'll bet lots of corporate numbers look like that.

 

[rScotty]

newbury said:
Good but confusing graph. Tends to confirm my point about sales declining in the fall.
Note that all lines start out well below 20 in January but are about 20 and above in December.

That could be explained by chasing year end numbers (and sucking the sales out of January) for incentives. I'll bet lots of corporate numbers look like that.

I think what newbury is saying is that the graph is a style that is one year long and has 4 years of data.

Now there is nothing wrong with wrapping the years like that to save space, but doing so means that the end of one year and the beginning of the next year should be the same number on the vertical axis.

But this one isn't. It drops about a third each time the year wraps around. Not right....

And that makes it confusing.

rScotty

 

[Cahaba Valley Farm]

I just talked to the K & S dealer in Lubbock
TX and he said last month was great for
tractor sales but its a little slower this month
and no trouble getting parts or tractors LS &
Yanmar.

willy

Thanks for the report Willy.

 

[CloverKnollFarms]

Heading to Arkansas this weekend to take a look at Bruno’s. They say they have the best prices in the country, and free delivery… which is nice, since I’m in Indiana . Anyone dealt with them?

 

[Blue14]

Heading to Arkansas this weekend to take a look at Bruno’s. They say they have the best prices in the country, and free delivery… which is nice, since I’m in Indiana . Anyone dealt with them?

Double check their hours their website shows they are closed on Saturday and Sundays.

 

[CloverKnollFarms]

Double check their hours their website shows they are closed on Saturday and Sundays.

I actually arrive Sunday, off Monday with a free rental car, fly out Tuesday!

 

[5030]

It works though DDG gives me crap results compares to Google when I'm searching for something.

Keep in mind tat Goggle is constantly tracking your browsing habits and through algorithm's putting ads on various sites you visit. You don't get any of that with DDG or Brave. Myself, I don't need to be led around by the nose when it comes to purchasing things. Another reason I don't frequent You Tube, I dislike the constant ads. I stick to Rumble, Parler and Truth Social.

 

[Fixastuff]

Keep in mind tat Goggle is constantly tracking your browsing habits and through algorithm's putting ads on various sites you visit. You don't get any of that with DDG or Brave. Myself, I don't need to be led around by the nose when it comes to purchasing things. Another reason I don't frequent You Tube, I dislike the constant ads. I stick to Rumble, Parler and Truth Social.

I don't get any ads. I wouldn't pay attention to them if I did. I've tried searching for the same stuff on DDG and google(usually excavator or dirt working related) and what I'm looking for will be on page 1 of Google and page 4 or 5 of DDG.

 

[airbiscuit]

I think what newbury is saying is that the graph is a style that is one year long and has 4 years of data.

Now there is nothing wrong with wrapping the years like that to save space, but doing so means that the end of one year and the beginning of the next year should be the same number on the vertical axis.

But this one isn't. It drops about a third each time the year wraps around. Not right....

And that makes it confusing.

rScotty

I take tour point. I think this graph is designed as it is to show year over year comparisons. If it was a 13 month graph, December - December, the end of one year and the beginning of the next year would be the same number on the vertical axis. It starts with a different month - January - so the number is necessarily different. It could be a flaky graph, or it could represent the chasing of year end numbers as companies are wont to do.

 

[MinnesotaEric]

View attachment 769811

Like most things, Compact Tractor sales will revert to the mean.

I bet that hockey stick jump in December sales after a November slump from Fall sales is end of year 179 write-offs. I know that if I'm leaning into the wind on taxes, I up my end of year spending that I can write-off as a one year 179 depreciation.

 

[Cahaba Valley Farm]

Thought I would give an update. There has been a lot of advertising from both Kubota and the local Kubota dealership in the past several weeks on TV about year end sales. I have never seen either of them ever advertise this time of the year much less advertise a sale.

 

[MinnesotaEric]

Thought I would give an update. There has been a lot of advertising from both Kubota and the local Kubota dealership in the past several weeks on TV about year end sales. I have never seen either of them ever advertise this time of the year much less advertise a sale.

From my Youtube side, advertising money is down, leading to half-price discounts on adverts (which sucks for me et al, but I digress) and while we are just past peak boomer retirement, that doesn't mean there aren't piles of retirees (and my aforementioned 179 write-off folks) looking for a deal.

 

[5030]

Never watched your YT channel and don't plan on it. I find YT to be less than a stellar site and I don't like constant ads either. I do Rumble where creators are paid by Rumble for views and no commercial ads.

Kind of surprised the forum owner allows you to advertise it on here actually.

 

[5030]

Thought I would give an update. There has been a lot of advertising from both Kubota and the local Kubota dealership in the past several weeks on TV about year end sales. I have never seen either of them ever advertise this time of the year much less advertise a sale.

Same here and not just Kubota. They all are. That tells me new sales are tanking. There is a Branson dealer up town and none of his Bransons have moved in a couple months. People don't have the funds and Branson don't build an Ag tractor. My Kubota dealer is selling the big Ag tractors but not the 'toy' ones.

I also notice that listings on TH are getting slimmer too.

Sign of the contracting economy.

 

[5030]

I was on TH this morning and it's shrinking even more.... Not that I'm wanting or selling anything because I'm set. Discretionary purchases (non ag) are dropping like a lead Baloon. People don't have the funds. I suspect the small tractor new market will tank big time. Especially with the T4 mandate and all that emissions junk.

 

[ovrszd]

I was on TH this morning and it's shrinking even more.... Not that I'm wanting or selling anything because I'm set. Discretionary purchases (non ag) are dropping like a lead Baloon. People don't have the funds. I suspect the small tractor new market will tank big time. Especially with the T4 mandate and all that emissions junk.

That's possible. The buying addiction of our society has lasted longer than I thought it would. We've been in serious inflationary condition for a year now.

 

[5030]

I'm surprised it has as well Richard. You are seeing it in cars now too. People are starting to come to the realization that they DO need to pay the money back, plus interest. You need to still eat and heat your shack. Everything else becomes discretionary.

I think it's called 'Recession' despite what the government calls it.

I'm afraid there is 'gonna be a heartache tonight' as people default on stuff.

I think the automakers and their dealers are going to be the first ones to take the hit. It's the 'domino' effect.

 

[5030]

I'm surprised it has as well Richard. You are seeing it in cars now too. People are starting to come to the realization that they DO need to pay the money back, plus interest. You need to still eat and heat your shack. Everything else becomes discretionary.

I think it's called 'Recession' despite what the government calls it.

I'm afraid there is 'gonna be a heartache tonight' as people default on stuff.

I think the automakers and their dealers are going to be the first ones to take the hit. It's the 'domino' effect.

I've been more than fair with my renters. I have not raised the rent for over 2 years despite my RE taxes going up. People do have to eat after all. So long as I stay in the 'black', I'm good with it. Not sure if they appreciate it but I feel better doing it.

 

[airbiscuit]

I think there is still a lot of latent demand for CUTs. The price on new or used wouldn't have to drop much for demand to pick up again. Financing cost is another matter.