New Tractor Sales Are Declining

[scootr]

To be complacent is to condone.

 

[scootr]

Markets decline as the election results shift left. Tractor sales will continue to decline, as interest rates rise, government spending continues, and job losses mount in 2023

A good portion of this country deserves to be crippled by energy costs and inflation. So, a part of me isn’t upset that it will continue.

I'm all for saving the planet. I don't think you have to destroy the economy, the family values, the police and justice system to do it.

 

[CloverKnollFarms]

I'm all for saving the planet. I don't think you have to destroy the economy, the family values, the police and justice system to do it.

Agreed. Some people vote for this crap, others just don’t vote… either way, they deserve to be crippled by their choices. I’m just hoping the rest of us can make it through while they reap what they have sown.

 

[rScotty]

I'm all for saving the planet. I don't think you have to destroy the economy, the family values, the police and justice system to do it.

Doing one doesn't mean doing the other. It's a matter of perception.

 

[scootr]

Doing one doesn't mean doing the other. It's a matter of perception.

Correct. Keep your head out of the sand and your eyes wide open. Do your own thinking. That's why God gave you a brain.
Have a good day.

 

[Cahaba Valley Farm]

Markets decline as the election results shift left. Tractor sales will continue to decline, as interest rates rise, government spending continues, and job losses mount in 2023

A good portion of this country deserves to be crippled by energy costs and inflation. So, a part of me isn’t upset that it will continue.

There is a stupidity that is taking over the people in this county. It's unreal to watch. I am besides myself to see what is happening. It's so crazy that it is seems like something you would read out of a science fiction novel.

 

[buckeyefarmer]

But there are service rigs on wells all the time. Some people would say they look just like a drilling unit.. View attachment 769700

Maybe drilling another well from the same pad. Many pads have up to 10+ wells on them. If there’s a rig on it, it’s not in production.

 

[scootr]

I think all dissatisfied Americans should not make a major purchase for 18 months in protest to what has been done to our dollar and our economy. Think about it. If 50% of the people made no major purchases like no cars, no tractors, no homes for 18 months this **** would grind to a halt and somebody would have to start listening.

 

[airbiscuit]

Like most things, Compact Tractor sales will revert to the mean.

 

[MinnesotaEric]

Markets decline as the election results shift left. Tractor sales will continue to decline, as interest rates rise, government spending continues, and job losses mount in 2023

A good portion of this country deserves to be crippled by energy costs and inflation. So, a part of me isn’t upset that it will continue.

Unfortunately, rural living is energy intensive. Urban dwellers don't have piles of different equipment for different jobs or need to travel all over the place towing different trailers. Neither do most urban dweller pump their own well water, supply their own septic systems, supply their own outdoor lighting, and generally urban dwellers pay less for electricity than rural cooperatives.

 

[MinnesotaEric]

Like most things, Compact Tractor sales will revert to the mean.

Demographically speaking, world wide we are looking at the next 30 years as a contraction of global populations.

 

[MinnesotaEric]

This is about the third straight quarter that tractor sales have been on the decline. As mentioned last year, I believed the huge surge in compact tractor sales was tied to the overheated housing market and once that popped we would see demand sharply fall.

Moreso tied to peak boomer retirement. From here on out fewer boomers are retiring rurally leading to slower sales and my generation, Generation X, is much smaller leading to less consumerism in general. Believe it or not, the bigger Millenial and whatztheirface generation that follows the Millenials will bail out economies—but that is down the road.

 

[rScotty]

Over the last 70 something years I have been watching, not a single predicted change in society or the economy ever amounted to much. We talked about expected changes, but when by the time they arrived they had lost their impact.

Not so for the unexpected changes.... From tornados to floods, wars, 2007-08 GFC, 9/11, Covid, criminals, and so on - the common factor is these all happened without giving us any advance warning. And they all had huge impacts, far larger than any predicted events.

So while it's fun to talk about possible trends, a better plan is to expect the unexpected.

rScotty

 

[ovrszd]

There is a stupidity that is taking over the people in this county. It's unreal to watch. I am besides myself to see what is happening. It's so crazy that it is seems like something you would read out of a science fiction novel.

You can't make this up......

 

[Williy]

I just talked to the K & S dealer in Lubbock
TX and he said last month was great for
tractor sales but its a little slower this month
and no trouble getting parts or tractors LS &
Yanmar.

willy

 

[WM75Guy]

Yes but some in southern Wyoming /North Eastern Colorado are fairly deep like the Niobrara and Codell formations which
are ~ 5500-8500 feet and also drilled horizontally and can cross a full section .

I don't see an issue fueling up a tractor in my lifetime, so that fear shouldn't affect sales. Like you are seeing, in West Texas everything has gone horizontal. Our 33 new wells are all horizontal. Depth is from 8500' to 13,000', which is into the Wolfcamp formation. All are 2 1/2 miles in length. There are 8 to 10 wells per pad site, all running in the same direction across 2 1/2 sections. The recently discovered deeper formations below Wolfcamp have yet to be tapped.

From 2018:

The U.S. Department of the Interior announced Thursday the Permian Basin’s Wolfcamp shale and Bone Spring formation spanning parts of West Texas and eastern New Mexico hold the largest potential oil and gas resources ever discovered. Federal surveyors note the Bone Spring plays could offer roughly seven times the amount of oil as the Bakken shale in North Dakota.

Largest Oil and Gas Reserves Ever Assessed Found in West Texas

The Wolfcamp shale and Bone Spring formation spanning parts of Texas and New Mexico hold the largest potential oil resources ever discovered.

www.breitbart.com

Here are the formation names under our properties, from one of our completion records:

 

[newbury]

I've only been looking at tractor sales since 2009. But it seems sales for small tractors (<100HP) have always declined from late fall to early spring.

View attachment 769811

Like most things, Compact Tractor sales will revert to the mean.

Good but confusing graph. Tends to confirm my point about sales declining in the fall.
Note that all lines start out well below 20 in January but are about 20 and above in December.

 

[Hay Dude]

I just talked to the K & S dealer in Lubbock
TX and he said last month was great for
tractor sales but its a little slower this month
and no trouble getting parts or tractors LS &
Yanmar.

willy

Good but confusing graph. Tends to confirm my point about sales declining in the fall.
Note that all lines start out well below 20 in January but are about 20 and above in December.

The tractor market is experiencing some sales especially for those looking to finance a purchase before interest rates hit double digit all-time highs in this crap economy.
But generally sales tumble around the holidays.

 

[rScotty]

Good but confusing graph. Tends to confirm my point about sales declining in the fall.
Note that all lines start out well below 20 in January but are about 20 and above in December.

That's generous of you. It reminds me of graphs from the sales department of a large corporation that I did some work for. Their sales dept. always skewed their graphs to back up a sales pitch - they weren't there to display exact numerical data.

It wasn't a problem. Everyone realized that sales graphs are made with a different goal.

Simiar thinking led to the Nebraska Tractor Tests.

rScotty

 

[airbiscuit]

Here is the source document.