New Tractor Sales Are Declining

[MinnesotaEric]

Like most things, Compact Tractor sales will revert to the mean.

Demographically speaking, world wide we are looking at the next 30 years as a contraction of global populations.

 

[MinnesotaEric]

This is about the third straight quarter that tractor sales have been on the decline. As mentioned last year, I believed the huge surge in compact tractor sales was tied to the overheated housing market and once that popped we would see demand sharply fall.

Moreso tied to peak boomer retirement. From here on out fewer boomers are retiring rurally leading to slower sales and my generation, Generation X, is much smaller leading to less consumerism in general. Believe it or not, the bigger Millenial and whatztheirface generation that follows the Millenials will bail out economies—but that is down the road.

 

[rScotty]

Over the last 70 something years I have been watching, not a single predicted change in society or the economy ever amounted to much. We talked about expected changes, but when by the time they arrived they had lost their impact.

Not so for the unexpected changes.... From tornados to floods, wars, 2007-08 GFC, 9/11, Covid, criminals, and so on - the common factor is these all happened without giving us any advance warning. And they all had huge impacts, far larger than any predicted events.

So while it's fun to talk about possible trends, a better plan is to expect the unexpected.

rScotty

 

[ovrszd]

There is a stupidity that is taking over the people in this county. It's unreal to watch. I am besides myself to see what is happening. It's so crazy that it is seems like something you would read out of a science fiction novel.

You can't make this up......

 

[Williy]

I just talked to the K & S dealer in Lubbock
TX and he said last month was great for
tractor sales but its a little slower this month
and no trouble getting parts or tractors LS &
Yanmar.

willy

 

[WM75Guy]

Yes but some in southern Wyoming /North Eastern Colorado are fairly deep like the Niobrara and Codell formations which
are ~ 5500-8500 feet and also drilled horizontally and can cross a full section .

I don't see an issue fueling up a tractor in my lifetime, so that fear shouldn't affect sales. Like you are seeing, in West Texas everything has gone horizontal. Our 33 new wells are all horizontal. Depth is from 8500' to 13,000', which is into the Wolfcamp formation. All are 2 1/2 miles in length. There are 8 to 10 wells per pad site, all running in the same direction across 2 1/2 sections. The recently discovered deeper formations below Wolfcamp have yet to be tapped.

From 2018:

The U.S. Department of the Interior announced Thursday the Permian Basin’s Wolfcamp shale and Bone Spring formation spanning parts of West Texas and eastern New Mexico hold the largest potential oil and gas resources ever discovered. Federal surveyors note the Bone Spring plays could offer roughly seven times the amount of oil as the Bakken shale in North Dakota.

Largest Oil and Gas Reserves Ever Assessed Found in West Texas

The Wolfcamp shale and Bone Spring formation spanning parts of Texas and New Mexico hold the largest potential oil resources ever discovered.

www.breitbart.com

Here are the formation names under our properties, from one of our completion records:

 

[newbury]

I've only been looking at tractor sales since 2009. But it seems sales for small tractors (<100HP) have always declined from late fall to early spring.

View attachment 769811

Like most things, Compact Tractor sales will revert to the mean.

Good but confusing graph. Tends to confirm my point about sales declining in the fall.
Note that all lines start out well below 20 in January but are about 20 and above in December.

 

[Hay Dude]

I just talked to the K & S dealer in Lubbock
TX and he said last month was great for
tractor sales but its a little slower this month
and no trouble getting parts or tractors LS &
Yanmar.

willy

Good but confusing graph. Tends to confirm my point about sales declining in the fall.
Note that all lines start out well below 20 in January but are about 20 and above in December.

The tractor market is experiencing some sales especially for those looking to finance a purchase before interest rates hit double digit all-time highs in this crap economy.
But generally sales tumble around the holidays.

 

[rScotty]

Good but confusing graph. Tends to confirm my point about sales declining in the fall.
Note that all lines start out well below 20 in January but are about 20 and above in December.

That's generous of you. It reminds me of graphs from the sales department of a large corporation that I did some work for. Their sales dept. always skewed their graphs to back up a sales pitch - they weren't there to display exact numerical data.

It wasn't a problem. Everyone realized that sales graphs are made with a different goal.

Simiar thinking led to the Nebraska Tractor Tests.

rScotty

 

[airbiscuit]

Here is the source document.