New Tractor Sales Are Declining

[2manyrocks]

The chart Williy linked shows a -14% YTD decline in tractor sales overall in 2022. Interesting, however, that there was a -17.5% decline in sales of tractors under 40 hp but a 11.6% gain in sales in tractors over 100 HP, but the 2022 sales trend line is slightly follows the five year average trend line.

IDK, maybe hobby farmers backed off tractor buying due to the increased cost of everything else, but the really serious farming operations bought 100+ HP tractors because they see inflation driving up purchase costs in the future?

Land costs have also gotten so expensive while many farms in middle Tennessee have been sold for subdivisions. Makes me wonder who is buying tractors these days.

 

[ArlyA]

Doing custom work from Texas to the Dakotas our family figured 6500 hours or ten years for tractors and less for combines and hay equipment. At that point they could still be sold for decent money.

Sometimes you just get a good one. We kept one grain truck so long it finally got retired. Last I heard it was still running fine. GMC.
rScotty

You do know I have a How Ag works thread here? Here is there harvest crew of one of my family member's.

 

[Hay Dude]

The chart Williy linked shows a -14% YTD decline in tractor sales overall in 2022. Interesting, however, that there was a -17.5% decline in sales of tractors under 40 hp but a 11.6% gain in sales in tractors over 100 HP, but the 2022 sales trend line is slightly follows the five year average trend line.

IDK, maybe hobby farmers backed off tractor buying due to the increased cost of everything else, but the really serious farming operations bought 100+ HP tractors because they see inflation driving up purchase costs in the future?

Land costs have also gotten so expensive while many farms in middle Tennessee have been sold for subdivisions. Makes me wonder who is buying tractors these days.

Depreciation write off for farmers (big Ag) and not for small hobby guys (small utility tractors)

 

[Hay Dude]

I asked a family memmber who farms how long they run there tractors and his response was in the 10,000 hours area.

It depends on usage and depreciation schedules.
10,000 hours could be far more than the depreciation schedule being used.
I see way more used big ag tractors for sale with 5,000-8,000 than 10,000. I think it’s because it takes 10 years or more to reach 10,000 hours, which is far past the full write off.

 

[Hay Dude]

Tell you something thats really increasing on the Ag end is tractor leasing.
Fendt has a gold star lease program where you lease and all expenses are covered in monthly payment. This includes oil changes-everything.
When you are done, you can walk away, or buy it out or finance with their terms.

 

[rScotty]

You do know I have a How Ag works thread here? Here is there harvest crew of one of my family member's.View attachment 767971

No I didn't, but thanks for the fascinating link. We leased Gleaners, not the JDs that big farmers had. The years of the 1950s were a whole different era. Post WWII, the adults were happy just to be alive and their joy was infectious. We lived in the best country ever, where anyone could do anything become anything. Shortcomings were temporary.

Any 12 year old could drive a grain truck until they grew enough to work a combine. Combines had no cabs, no masks, not even an umbrella - you are mostly standing anyway. Safety was your own lookout. Some older farmers wore hats, youngsters almost never.... endess fields of grain in the spring and summer, fruit & produce in the fall. Sleep on cots in a barn; showers with a hose, meals in paper bags. Mind-numbing work. Rain makes it a maintenance day.

Townies vs Harvies. New schools by the dozen. Every possession in a footlocker. Patches on patches. bowl haircuts, sunburns & crooked teeth. Polio. Rarely did a farm working family make enough to buy a house - much less their own farm. Happy just to be alive and to work outside - and so ignorant it makes me weep.

 

[ovrszd]

No I didn't, but thanks for the fascinating link. We leased Gleaners, not the JDs that big farmers had. The years of the 1950s were a whole different era. Post WWII, the adults were happy just to be alive and their joy was infectious. We lived in the best country ever, where anyone could do anything become anything. Shortcomings were temporary.

Any 12 year old could drive a grain truck until they grew enough to work a combine. Combines had no cabs, no masks, not even an umbrella - you are mostly standing anyway. Safety was your own lookout. Some older farmers wore hats, youngsters almost never.... endess fields of grain in the spring and summer, fruit & produce in the fall. Sleep on cots in a barn; showers with a hose, meals in paper bags. Mind-numbing work. Rain makes it a maintenance day.

Townies vs Harvies. New schools by the dozen. Every possession in a footlocker. Patches on patches. bowl haircuts, sunburns & crooked teeth. Polio. Rarely did a farm working family make enough to buy a house - much less their own farm. Happy just to be alive and to work outside - and so ignorant it makes me weep.

I grew up on a farm in the 50s and 60s. I take personal offense in you calling us ignorant. Your ignorance is fully displayed in that comment Sir.

 

[airbiscuit]

JUST % INFO:

https://www.aem.org/AEM/media/docs/Statistics/US-Month-Ag-Report-9-2022.pdf

willy

It looks like 2022 (black) is tracking pretty close to the 5 year average (red)

 

[airbiscuit]

Tell you something thats really increasing on the Ag end is tractor leasing.
Fendt has a gold star lease program where you lease and all expenses are covered in monthly payment. This includes oil changes-everything.
When you are done, you can walk away, or buy it out or finance with their terms.

My current New Holland came from an independent used tractor dealer. He had some sort of arrangement with New Holland dealers that leased tractors to vineyards. There were 700 hours on my tractor when I got it, and he had several. I'm not sure if there was a tax advantage to leasing, or if they had to have 100% reliable tractors during their busy season so they wanted their stable to always be pretty new. In any case it was a nice source of low hour CUTs for him to resell.

 

[scootr]

Ignorance is the lack of knowledge on a given subject. It is not stupidity. It is more akin to a lack of exposure to knowledge.
I hope this helps you ignorant ......