Market Watch

   / Market Watch #481  
You simply refuse to get it. There may be more today than yesterday or last year or 2019. But without the Bidenomics being in the way there would be much, much more.
Stop being obtuse.
You are simply following political rhetoric, not facts. Read WM75guy’s factual information. You simply think that if a politician says petroleum companies can drill more acres, they will jump to it. Saying that drilling on the Alaska north slope is permitted doesn’t mean there’s industry interest in development of a high cost oil field. Chevron basically defaulted on the North slope permits because it’s not economically feasible and they want to operate were costs are significantly lower. Companies are actually having labor recruitment shortages in the Permian Basin. The industry is currently producing WOT based on labor force and resources. Our local news has had interviews with petroleum executives and spotlighted these challenges. It’s not a matter of a politician saying they are free to drill everywhere. That’s too simplistic.
 
   / Market Watch #482  
This is correct. But it’s not an insignificant amount. And the current administration is trying to have their cake and eat it too. Production is inching up from 2020 and that is in spite of Bidenomics and it could be much better without him.
Does it matter if oil production is higher or lower? Kinda dumb to burn such a resource anyway.

There is a strong argument towards towards leaving more of it in the ground for future generations. After all, petroleum has a lot of uses other than as a cheap fuel, but right now we just burn it for easy profits.

Maybe we should back off on production and let some other countries be the dumb ones. Let someone else be the fools who squander their limited resources for cheap dollars in the short run. If we work together, we can afford to wait.

rScotty

BTW, I asked around about the credit card thing. Turns out it is well known to bankers that about the same amount of people pay it off monthly as carry a balance at outrageous interest. Your money; your choice.
 
   / Market Watch #483  
You know, Scotty, I’ve heard that argument since the early 1960’s and it still doesn’t make sense. Just think about it - if we were burning up all the oil like you say how would we still be able to produce more every year for all these years?
There is plenty of oil and more is discovered all the time.
You should have stopped believing those Al Gore bedtime stories when we weren’t all frozen by 2000.
Sorry for disturbing your opinion with arithmetic, but more people using more will eventually make rapid changes. How could they not? More people using more doesn't plot as a straight line, you know.
You mystify me. What in the world do you think is happening? Do you think that oil somehow renews itself? Or that moving it from underground to the atmosphere doesn't change anything?

Maybe not in our lifetime - I'll give you that. Although I no longer look at my own lifetime as the most important measuring stick. That happens, too.

Like most changes, oil depletion it is likely to be a slower start than fiinish. And just like a repair on tractors or people, better to fix the problem at the beginning than later when it gets worse.

Agree that Al Gore got his timing way wrong - like most youngsters he thought everything important was going to happen immediately and in a direction only he could see. That's youthful hubris. It afflicts young politicians too.

But other than the timing, he appears to have gotten the rest of his projections roughly right - hotter in some places, cooler in others, weather & climate...the changes are chugging right along.
Just not yet accelerating.
rScotty
 
   / Market Watch #484  
Have some of us forgotten that more oil is being created by the earth every second.
I say use it while nuclear power is perfected, then start using nuclear power for the grid and leave fossil fuels for vehicles.
 
   / Market Watch #485  
I had already mentioned the main point he stated just before he did. Just not as verbose. He added a different chart but it pointed to the same conclusion that everybody except you seems to be able to understand - we naturally have used and produced more oil now than we did back then. Nobody has said we havent. We could have produced more without interference of Bidenomics. I also clarified that with another chart above. I do know one thing about the oil patch - that is plays don’t happen on the spur of the moment or on a whim. Companies spend a lot of time planning before they even start leasing. It might seem like it when things really start moving but all that was worked out years in advance. There are already companies looking to get back into ANWAR.
Obiden can’t outright wage war on oil and gas although he would like to. But he can do things to gum up the process like he just did with methane emissions. It adds time and costs to the process.
I realize it’s harder for a government bureaucratic thinking person to cut through to the chase but try your best.
U.S. companies currently hold ten million acres of federal lands permits that they have yet to drill. Because they are making record profits producing more profitable oil field like the Permian Basin and Gulf Coast. And surprise, the most profitable oil fields are on state and private land, not federal. With the big companies unable to find and keep a sufficient labor force and supplies in the profitable Permian Basin, why would they want to develop new fields on the north slope with 5 times the operating costs of elsewhere? Why did Chevron give up their permits on Alaska North slope? They cited that it was unprofitable to develop and operate there. You throw out a claim that stopping permits in a wildlife refuge in the arctic circle is the end of the world, and companies want to do business there. Yet don’t state what companies. Big players haven’t shown interest. And then there’s the issue of why would we screw up a wildlife refuge in the fragile Arctic Circle , when there are less sensitive places to operate that are more profitable. Record annual production is admirable and no sour grapes are warranted. Now as for refineries, we have shortcomings there. If we had the appropriate refineries, we could use US light crude and not export it. There are several refineries in my state using local light crude and not exporting it. All in all, the orange guy is throwing out political rhetoric and some people believe it, without any understanding of the situation. You can’t order companies to produce more and say drill everywhere. I’m done with this discussion. Drill baby drill is a mantra that is simply rhetoric.
 
   / Market Watch #486  
US jobs report comes in above expectations. Stock futures fall.

IMG_2807.JPG
 
   / Market Watch #487  
Have some of us forgotten that more oil is being created by the earth every second.
I say use it while nuclear power is perfected, then start using nuclear power for the grid and leave fossil fuels for vehicles.
Where did you hear that? It's true in essence, even coal is ultimately formed in that process. But just to get to oil requires tens of millions of years as well as a biomass covering an earth having a whole different climate - like in the time of dinosaurs.
Good for what comes after, but I'm afraid people will be long gone by them.
rScotty
 
   / Market Watch #488  
Where did you hear that?
How about here?

Science on the formation of oil has changed since we were kids. Turns out the 'dinosaur juice' and other biomass ancient sources were not accurate.

 
   / Market Watch #489  
How about here?

Science on the formation of oil has changed since we were kids. Turns out the 'dinosaur juice' and other biomass ancient sources were not accurate.

Come on Torvy. You were an educator. How about some realistic references? That is internet nonsense aimed directly at advertising a financial position. Anyone can fabricate pseudo science. Get real.
 
   / Market Watch #490  
Come on Torvy. You were an educator. How about some realistic references? That is internet nonsense aimed directly at advertising a financial position. Anyone can fabricate pseudo science. Get real.
Would you prefer this?


The sources are just quick internet searches, but they are based on the science.
 
   / Market Watch #491  
Solar energy might get to the point that oil is not needed. At least cars are more fuel efficient than the gas guzzlers of the 1970s.
 
   / Market Watch #492  
Would you prefer this?


The sources are just quick internet searches, but they are based on the science.
Here's an actual scientific study if you'd rather read that way.

 
   / Market Watch #493  
Here's an actual scientific study if you'd rather read that way.

Why choose those? They support my arguement, not yours. Both of those studies support the time frame that I used and which is well accepted. - not the pseudo science of the previous posting.

But here's a suggestion: Geological science is a bit too well supported to be overthrown by random internet pseudo-scientific articles, although I'm sure you can find plenty of those if you search. But pulling up articles from the fringe isn't going to change the reality.

And I doubt that made-up articles will do much to change the accepted knowledge either.
After all, it is exactly that accepted knowledge which the petroleum drillers and engineers rely on today to guide their work.

rScotty
 
   / Market Watch #494  
Why choose those? They support my arguement, not yours. Both of those studies support the time frame that I used and which is well accepted. - not the pseudo science of the previous posting.

But here's a suggestion: Geological science is a bit too well supported to be overthrown by random internet pseudo-scientific articles, although I'm sure you can find plenty of those if you search. But pulling up articles from the fringe isn't going to change the reality.

And I doubt that made-up articles will do much to change the accepted knowledge either.
After all, it is exactly that accepted knowledge which the petroleum drillers and engineers rely on today to guide their work.

rScotty
My point was that oil is constantly being formed and it is not really a fossil fuel. Not really just pressure treated biomass. Those studies prove that. Not pseudo Science at all, just emerging science that pokes holes in accepted myth.

The biomass theory is the flat earth or sun revolves are the earth sort of thing of the past. Everyone believed the wrong theory until they didn't. The only reason this is not front and center has to do with the politics, not the science.
 
   / Market Watch #495  
My point was that oil is constantly being formed and it is not really a fossil fuel. Not really just pressure treated biomass. Those studies prove that. Not pseudo Science at all, just emerging science that pokes holes in accepted myth.

The biomass theory is the flat earth or sun revolves are the earth sort of thing of the past. Everyone believed the wrong theory until they didn't. The only reason this is not front and center has to do with the politics, not the science.

The difference is the rate and production of the process, not the process itself. Clearly the science works. Keep in mind that it is not just a scientific theory, but a mature technology based on that theory that is being used all over the world to tap into oil today.

Many articles say that the process is continuous, but they also say that the rate changes the output. And that is the point they are making. Not surprising, most processes produce at a rate dependent on conditions.

In this case the initial conditions for a rate to produce well include a saturated carbon rich atmoshere, a dense biomass, techtonic activity over eons, and then a few million years to deposit commercial quantities.

That isn't flat earth, and wishing won't make it work.
Don't you find it a bit odd when people believe what they wish for instead of what is all around them?
 
   / Market Watch #496  
Where did you hear that? It's true in essence, even coal is ultimately formed in that process. But just to get to oil requires tens of millions of years as well as a biomass covering an earth having a whole different climate - like in the time of dinosaurs.
Good for what comes after, but I'm afraid people will be long gone by them.
rScotty
Yeah but that process continues. It didn’t just stop one day lol
 
   / Market Watch #497  
Yeah but that process continues. It didn’t just stop one day lol
Come on, now. Put on your thinking cap. You can't fool me because I've seen you wear it.

A process continues at what any rate it goes. Sometimes a flood, and other times a drip so low that it might as well be stopped... but it isn't stopped just because it is too low to measure or to use.
 
   / Market Watch #498  
Come on, now. Put on your thinking cap. You can't fool me because I've seen you wear it.

A process continues at what any rate it goes. Sometimes a flood, and other times a drip so low that it might as well be stopped... but it isn't stopped just because it is too low to measure or to use.

Are you using projection again Rscotty? Use your head for something other than a hat rack!

Decaying vegetation & matter continues on and on forever in the oceans, settling to the floor. It’s not just dinosaurs. We may be extracting more than the earth can make, but the process never stops.
You know that! :LOL:
 
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   / Market Watch #499  
My point was that oil is constantly being formed and it is not really a fossil fuel. Not really just pressure treated biomass. Those studies prove that. Not pseudo Science at all, just emerging science that pokes holes in accepted myth.

The biomass theory is the flat earth or sun revolves are the earth sort of thing of the past. Everyone believed the wrong theory until they didn't. The only reason this is not front and center has to do with the politics, not the science.

There are processes happening inside the earth and other celestial bodies that science does not yet understand. The deepest man-made bore hole has only penetrated about 7 miles into the crust. The mantle remains completely unexplored.

Based simply on the abundance of ancient dinosaur and sea-life remains found near the earth's surface, and the depths they are discovering increasingly larger deposits of oil, the position that oil is a byproduct coming from deeper sources within the earth's mantle makes sense.

ShieldSquare Captcha
 
   / Market Watch #500  
Are you using projection again Rscotty? Use your head for something other than a hat rack!

Decaying vegetation & matter continues on and on forever in the oceans, settling to the floor. It’s not just dinosaurs. We may be extracting more than the earth can make, but the process never stops.
You know that! :LOL:
Ok. I'll give it one last shot and then done. Gotta put some time into my real job today.

Change of rate is the concept you - and several others - are missing here. It is true that it is a more difficult way to think than using our old "one at a kind" or "simple cause and effect" concepts. But Rate of Change is basic to much of higher science and math. What it means is that things that are interconnected often run at different rates. That is, they run exponentially in time and that makes them complex by definition.
It also turns out that much of the natural world. - maybe all of nature - is complex, and . We know that because the effects of experiments are most accurately predicted when they are modeled exponentially.

So if you want to better understand natural processes, it means giving up on the old seductively simple and easy kind of linear thinking. It is just too limiting to do much good. But I do understand the appeal, and wish the world was that simple too.

rScotty - I'm done on this.It was fun, now time for work.
 

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