Market Watch

[CloverKnollFarms]

CNH is making cuts now due to lack of demand.

 

[milkman636]

They aren't buying tractors.

401(k) hardship withdrawals are surging as high inflation squeezes Americans

More Americans are making hardship withdrawals from their 401(k) retirement plans to cover emergency expenses as they struggle with chronic inflation.

www.foxbusiness.com

That’s part of my thesis why the stock market will continue to decline. If each one of these withdrawals was only 10,000 that would still be over $180 million in underlying assets that were sold irrespective of price or fundamentals.

After these withdrawals are exhausted there likely will be a corresponding climb in repos and foreclosures.

 

[CloverKnollFarms]

180 million is pretty small compared to the market as a whole. I do see it as a sign that the economy is on the verge of a real dump.

 

[2manyrocks]

Student loan repayments are now supposed to resume, and I understand that the mortgage forbearance program is now ended. My assumption has been that once the residential real estate market finally tanks, the rest will tank.

 

[milkman636]

180 million is pretty small compared to the market as a whole. I do see it as a sign that the economy is on the verge of a real dump.

I agree. That was just a 3 month sample from their pool of accounts. I think it’s indicative of a larger trend that will persist, and one that probably involves significantly more dollars than the guesstimate I threw at it.

 

[milkman636]

Student loan repayments are now supposed to resume, and I understand that the mortgage forbearance program is now ended. My assumption has been that once the residential real estate market finally tanks, the rest will tank.

I just read an article stating that there is something like $4 trillion sitting in combined cash on the sidelines right now with investors and companies waiting to redeploy. A significant part of that was held by just 13 companies.

It makes me wonder if there won’t really be a financial crisis, just a large transfer of discounted assets and retirement savings to some of the bigger collectors.

 

[newbury]

There has been so much talk of gloom and doom over the last several years that many of us are keeping our powder dry waiting for another 2009 buying chance.

 

[2manyrocks]

There has been so much talk of gloom and doom over the last several years that many of us are keeping our powder dry waiting for another 2009 buying chance.

The potential danger in that for all of us is whether Powell will jump back into trying to "rescue" the economy and do even more damage or whether he has to toe the line to hold down inflation whether he likes it or not.

An indirect measure of the health of the economy is to look at Google trends to see what people are now searching. "Give car back" is currently one of the leading trends, I suppose for people who overpaid for cars the past couple of years.

 

[two_bit_score]

I suppose for people who overpaid for cars the past couple of years.

All the tote the note dealers I know get their money out of the car in the first transaction. Everything else, if any, is just extra profit.

 

[CloverKnollFarms]

Deere stock dips on missed outlook, equipment sales decline

Shares of Deere & Company (DE) tumble on Wednesday after the heavy machinery manufacturer's guidance has not lived up to previous estimates. While experiencing a pullback in farm equipment sales, Deere says it expects lower demand from farmers as crop prices decline. Yahoo Finance Live breaks...

finance.yahoo.com

 

[milkman636]

The shoe is starting to drop for that “soft landing”…..

 

[plastikosmd]

There has been so much talk of gloom and doom over the last several years that many of us are keeping our powder dry waiting for another 2009 buying chance.

Yea, jumped off the dry powder wagon in January. Unsure if/when an 09 level bump will come but this year was good

 

[edgarrian]

My thoughts on the industry and our economic reality is this. A great economy is not built on zero percent. And we enjoyed paying nothing for loans for sometime now. I remember when negative interest rates were being thrown around and i thought jesus. What are we doing. I feel like a lot of people really dont understand economics. We enjoyed historically low rates for sometime. Its allowed manufactures and contractors to increase there prices since rates were so low. The feds back in 2019 were buying up a bunch of bad debt. Meaning repo market was set to explode. They have kept the lid on that stuff for years now. Its probably on the verge of letting go.

 

[OWTM]

Yes. I just put a year’s salary into a 14 month CD earning 5%. Kinda like back in the 1980s when it was actually worthwhile to buy a CD.

Official Inflation number for 2022 was 8%, Probably higher but they don't want to tell. 5% On a CD you are still losing money

 

[jyoutz]

Official Inflation number for 2022 was 8%, Probably higher but they don't want to tell. 5% On a CD you are still losing money

I funded my CD in 2023, when inflation is significantly lower than 2022.

 

[edgarrian]

Official Inflation number for 2022 was 8%, Probably higher but they don't want to tell. 5% On a CD you are still losing money

you can get 5% for 6 months, get another for 6 months and you are making money. doing nothing. Inflation in 2023 is not 8% so you will make more.

 

[rScotty]

Looks to me like the economy is better than it has been in years. Around here, nobody fixes up their old cars, appliances, or clothing, they just buy new ones.
I'm as bad as anyone - probably worse, since I just bought new lumber to build a shed for an old tractor that can't possibly be worth as much as what it cost me to keep it out of the weather.

Not only did I pay more to build the shed than that old tractor is worth, I drove right past the used lumber yard to get to Home Depot to buy new lumber. If that doesn't prove a point then I don't know what will.

That got me to thinking about the one real economic indicator never mentioned by economists - that we will know for sure a downturn has arrived when people start fixing old things instead of buyng new ones.

So far, local businesses still have "help wanted" signs out. "Will train; no experience necessary". Wages are high and trending up, not down. BTW, that's another way we will recognize a downturn if and when it happens. Jobs will be harder to find, not easier. Benefits will be less, and wages will go down, not up.

It's all happened before. Maybe a downturn will happen someday. But that someday isn't here yet.

And while we wait, there are some good tractors out there looking for a home.... or just a shed.

rScotty

 

[tacticalturnip]

Glad things are going great where you're at, Maine is a ****show.

 

[edgarrian]

Looks to me like the economy is better than it has been in years. Around here, nobody fixes up their old cars, appliances, or clothing, they just buy new ones.
I'm as bad as anyone - probably worse, since I just bought new lumber to build a shed for an old tractor that can't possibly be worth as much as what it cost me to keep it out of the weather.

Not only did I pay more to build the shed than that old tractor is worth, I drove right past the used lumber yard to get to Home Depot to buy new lumber. If that doesn't prove a point then I don't know what will.

That got me to thinking about the one real economic indicator never mentioned by economists - that we will know for sure a downturn has arrived when people start fixing old things instead of buyng new ones.

So far, local businesses still have "help wanted" signs out. "Will train; no experience necessary". Wages are high and trending up, not down. BTW, that's another way we will recognize a downturn if and when it happens. Jobs will be harder to find, not easier. Benefits will be less, and wages will go down, not up.

It's all happened before. Maybe a downturn will happen someday. But that someday isn't here yet.

And while we wait, there are some good tractors out there looking for a home.... or just a shed.

rScotty

wages are up but real wages are down. Basically raises are not keeping up with inflation. That is why so many people disapprove of the current economy. Inflation has compounded. Its gone up every year and never gone down. So over the last 2 years prices have had about an average of 20% increase. Your raises that you speak of have not been that much.

Fixing old clothing has been something of the past for sometime now. I personally do not know of anyone that does that. When I was a child my parents didnt do that and im 46. People dont fix appliances b/c a part can cost 500 dollars not including labor on fridge that was worth a 1000 dollars. As for cars. There are indeed very few people that wrench and you are right. Trading in car every 3-5 years have been the norm or leasing.

Fact is consumers are carrying the largest private debt ever. We are 34 trillion in debt as a country. Were spending 6 trillion a year and only taking in 4 trillion from taxes. Regardless of what biden says. He is lying about the debt.

ONe thing is for certain a recession will come. When it happens is anyones guess but we are due for one. I would suggest saving your money. Fix ur cars, perform your own maintenance. Get rid of car loans. Nothing wrong with being prepared. IF you are not living paycheck to paycheck. Thats great. iF you are then people should change that bad habit

 

[rScotty]

Glad things are going great where you're at, Maine is a ****show

My point is the same as ever - It's a big country, big enough that things in one place really are different from another.

I was out in rural Mass/Vermont last year and thought it was nice. But I've been to Maine in the past. Not for long enough to understand wages or prices of consumer goods there, but I did look at land and house prices. I repeatedly saw 40 acres raw land going for what an unimproved buildng site costs here. And decent houses for roughly half what houses cost in in rural areas around Denver. Taxes were a lot lower too.
rScotty