Market Share %? Does anyone really know?

Bob_Skurka · Dec 2, 2004

Just out of curiosity, does anyone know what the 4th largest selling brand is, or the 5th, or the 6th . . . and to follow that up, what is the market share of each brand?

I repeated it, but I don't know if it is true, so I'm looking for the truth. The numbers I've heard for CUTS under 50hp sold in the US are:

Kubota 50% of all sales
JD 25% of all sales
NH 15% of all sales
Combined the "big 3" control roughly 90% of all sales.

Who is #4? I suspect it might be JINMA but because it is sold under so many different brand names that nobody would actually have good number.

But where is Massey?
Where is Mahnidra? (I've been hearing the "big 3" consider Mahindra to be their biggest threat)
Where is Cub Cadet? (5000 to 8000 series CUTS)
Where is Kioti?
Where is Case/Farmall?
Where is Branson? Century? Zetor? Eicher? PowerTrac? Steiner? LG? KAMA?

I am only curious about NEW tractor sales, not grey market imports or sales of used machines. Anyone actually have an idea? Maybe some of our dealer members might have an idea? Is there any truth to the often repeated "big 3" numbers? Is it possible that Jinma could actually be #4? While Kioti is far more popular on TBN, I hear that Mahindra sells more units than Kioit in the US (but I can't find many dealers who sell Mahindra). Century & Branson seem to have loyal followers but negligable market share. And why do some established brands like Massey and Case/Farmall have such low sales numbers despite the fact that they have been around longer than most everyone else?

I'm NOT intersted in debating quality, value or features. I'm just curious about actual sales.

Ledgemere Farm · Dec 2, 2004

Who is #4? I suspect it might be JINMA but because it is sold under so many different brand names that nobody would actually have good number

Were that the case, then you have CASE-IH-NH, Kioti-Cub Cadets, Massey Ferguson is sold by AGCO, so then you's have the AGCO brands lumped in. /forums/images/graemlins/crazy.gif

When I was a kid, I only saw FORD, John Deere and International Harvester. Once in a while you would find an Oliver, White, Allis or Massey.

Back in the early days of tractors, everybody who owned a machine shop built a tractor. There were lots of orphans out there after they thinned out. Now, it seems like the brand choices are widespread again. /forums/images/graemlins/ooo.gif

Bob_Skurka · Dec 2, 2004

Who is #4? I suspect it might be JINMA but because it is sold under so many different brand names that nobody would actually have good number

Were that the case, then you have CASE-IH-NH, Kioti-Cub Cadets, Massey Ferguson is sold by AGCO, so then you's have the AGCO brands lumped in. 

I think it is fair to lump all the Jinma's under one total, simply because they are all the same basic tractor and there is no real organized marketing for them there are simply independent companies (some of them are large like Homier or Northern). But the reality is they are all the same machine. There being no cohesive marketing I lump them together.

Regarding the other brands, I'd have no arguement about lumping CASE/Farmall in with the New Hollands. But you couldn't really call a Cub Cadet a Kioti for the purposes of my question simply because only the 8000 series Cubs are Kioti tractors. The 7000 and 5000 series machines are contracted out to other manufactureres. So the total of the Cub Cadets are actually several brands but all marketed as Cub. Mahindra has some tractors made for them and they make some. Ditto JD. Ditto NH. So they are not different than the Cub Cadet example above. With the exception of Jinma, I think it is fair to look at market share by BRAND, not by the underlying manufacturer of the components.

MessickFarmEqu · Dec 2, 2004

Mahindra is #4 with annual sales around 8,000 units. I don't think any of the other brands are moving enough machines for the big 3 to care. Next time they throw these numbers out at a meeting I will try and write them down.

Bob_Skurka · Dec 2, 2004

Neil, any clue about JINMA or is there really any way to tell because of the fractured way they are available?

If Mahindra sold about 8000 units, what did Kubota sell? JD? NH?

Maka · Dec 2, 2004

Hi Bob,

I did some searching on the internet and found an article on Mahindras market share. I am not a Mahindra dealer (do like their tractors from what I have seen) but had been quoted these numbers by their rep and now have found them.

I am an LG Montana dealer and have to say that if you calculate LGs products they should have a dent in the CUT market and I think it will take more market share in the near term. I do not have any specific info on who holds what share other than the article below.

I found a site that has this info. To purchase the information cost over $4200.00, OUCH!

Mahindra says it holds a 12% share in the 26 states that its dealer network represents. Here is the article I saw.

Mahindra USA Market

The "Big 3" should be looking over their shoulder with companies like LG, Mahindra, Kioti and others producing excellent machines and are making tremendous strides in penetrating the No. American market.

Maka

Bob_Skurka · Dec 2, 2004

Maka, I had seen that article, but it is somewhat misleading. Articles like that one are what prompted me to post my question in the first place!

They say that 98% of the compact tractor sales are in 28 states I have to seriously question their data and the accuracy of the story! They also make their claim but omit all tractors under 25hp. Hmmm. . .

Maka · Dec 2, 2004

I agree. They may be puffing them up but no doubt they are making some in roads in the market place.

Dargo · Dec 2, 2004

I totally agree that competition is good for the consumer. How else will the big three be kept honest and forced to continue to improve their products. On their market share, why only 28 states? I also have to doubt their penetration numbers.

shoppintractors · Dec 2, 2004

Mahindra is #4 with annual sales around 8,000 units. 

Sources, need the source of your information otherwise...it is useless.

 I don't think any of the other brands are moving enough machines for the big 3 to care. 

I would imagine, that is 'exactly' what the 'non-big 3' are hoping.....the 'big 3' are thinking.

Don /forums/images/graemlins/smirk.gif

Maka · Dec 2, 2004

I agree. I am sure that not many of the big boys cared about Kubota early on. Not sure but just an assumption. Well, they sure did move up the food chain.

Maka

Bob_Skurka · Dec 2, 2004

Don, I don't know the source of Neil's information, but I suspect he got it from Kubota. My Kubota dealer told me Mahindra is #4 nationally, but he didn't give me any numbers. (but that said, I still can't find a Mahindra dealer near me. . . Branson is 5 miles away at my NH dealer, Kioti has a couple guys in the next county)

The question is, can we trust Kubota to tell their dealers the correct ranking? I'm not sure that there would be a legitimate reason to think they would lie to their own dealers. If anything, you would think that a company would be out there warning its dealers to be extra sharp and hyper aware if they felt a real threat from a competitor.

 Edit: Well it seems I now have a local Mahindra dealer. And the dealer is a JD dealership as well. I guess I'll be checking them out in the near future. I drove past there twice in the past 10 days and there was no Mahindra sign, and I saw nothing but green tractors. Regardless, their marketshare numbers are highly suspect. But I do beleive they could be #4. I still question how many JINMAS get imported in the country and if they could be in or above the range of Mahindra?

shoppintractors · Dec 2, 2004

The question is, can we trust Kubota to tell their dealers the correct ranking? 

What marketing department would NOT manipulate the numbers to show their product in it's 'perceived' best light?

Don

Bob_Skurka · Dec 2, 2004

My experience with business says that what is told to the public via press releases is typcially the rosy version of reality. But typically the "insiders" get the real story.

In this case, the dealer meeting in October, would have given the dealers (the insiders) the real story. If their numbers are down, you can bet that Kubota would be pounding on their dealers for more sales. If Mahindra is a real threat, you can bet that Kubota would be educating their dealers on how to sell against the brand. I go to manufacturers meetings all the time, they are full of that type of stuff. And yes, they do point out market share numbers for the industries I work in, and it is interesting that when I go to a competitive companies meeting, the numbers match up. The "spin" may be totally different, but the numbers still match. If the numbers are dropping, then most often there are 2 things I hear . . . #1) so&so is promoting their product, here is what you need to know to combat the loss of market share . . . #2) here is our plan to grow the share via "xxx" (advertising, promotion, financing, etc. . . )

bczoom · Dec 2, 2004

( In this case, the dealer meeting in October, would have given the dealers (the insiders) the real story.)

I just e-mailed another dealer that was at the Oct. dealers meeting.

Providing him the info on the top 3 from your first post and inquiring who was 4th, I got the following response.

"It definitely wouldn't be Jinma or Mahindra. It would probably be either Case or Massey Ferguson. Cub Cadet and Kioti would be before Mahindra."

He didn't back it up with anything. The aforementioned is his entire response. His "probably" to me implies an opinion.

Bob_Skurka · Dec 2, 2004

So now the waters are even muddier!

2 Kubota dealers say Mahindra is 4. One say NO WAY, but then names Case or Massey. Or is it a regional thing with dealers?

Who is NUMBER 4? 5? 6? . . .

MessickFarmEqu · Dec 2, 2004

I was a New Holland meeting about a year ago where that Mahindra 8000 unit bit came out. Another meeting a few weeks later said thing same thing, I can't remeber where that was. I have never heard anything from Kubota concerning national market shares, they do share the numbers from that $4200 report for our local area. The only companies you can get firm data on are those who import their products because all the port information is public record.

As for the size of the tractor market, you see numbers from 125-250,000 units a year floating around. I guess it depends on how they measure each segment. At that New Holland meeting they calculated Mahindra around 7%. I am sure if you cut out the states where they have little to no presense it might be higher. You could also stretch to including the cub cadet models as well.

Why don't we just do our own survay to answer this question?

Bob_Skurka · Dec 2, 2004

Well now I am seeing something interesting. One Kubota dealer (Neil) who says Mahindra is #4 is a Kubota/NH/Cub Cadet dealer. The other Kubota dealer is my local dealer, he said the same thing, he is a Kubota/Case/Cub Cadet dealer. Interesting similarities there.

But IF Mahindra is 7% of the TOTAL market, and Kubota is 50%, JD is 25% and NH is 15% then all of a sudden it means all the other folks combined equal only 3%. And since there seems to be some legitimate level of debate between dealers as to who #4 really is (possibly Case, maybe Massey) then it is unlikely that Mahindra could be 7% -- OR it is HIGHLY unlikely that the big 3 are 90% of the market.

As for a survey on TBN, I suspect that we would find PowerTrac would have disproportionate #s, ditto a few other brands. I don't think we TBN folks are anything close to a statistical sample.

jwstewar · Dec 2, 2004

I have no numbers - no proof to back this up - but just WAG here, but I have a hard time believing any one company has 50% of the market share w/ that many participants. That would totally shock and surprise me. /forums/images/graemlins/ooo.gif That would tell me that one product is so far advanced and better than the others that they shouldn't even be competing. Now we know that isn't true /forums/images/graemlins/grin.gif

I mean my goodness Dell doesn't even have a 50% market share. Heck Microsoft is only on 90% of the PCs. /forums/images/graemlins/grin.gif

Bob_Skurka · Dec 2, 2004

Philip Morris does.

Kraft Mac & Cheese does.

Heinz Ketchup does.

If I sit and think about it, I could probably come up with a list that might include a couple hundred consumer items.