Corona Virus #6

[California]

Lots of misinformation here. I'll make comments in capital letters. Not meaning to scream. And, while I am sure the physician at Hopkins knows a lot, something must have been lost in translation.

Thank you!!!

When the first line said somebody anonymous got that from a friend of a friend I decided to wait for a link to its original at Johns Hopkins. Apparently no credible original version exists. And this was created in someones imagination to post on Facebook.

Thank you for adding real information to that good-intentions but misleading Facebook post.

 

[IslandTractor]

Italy is at the 11% death rate now and the US has risen to 1.7%

Germany has risen to .7% S. Korea has risen to 1.5%

So judging by the article about flu in Italy, they have always been dying like flies from seasonal flu. So the Covid19 plague is just adding to their already high death rate they have always had.

Guys you cannot simply divide total deaths by total cases to calculate a death rate. In the USA the number of cases freshly reported in the past week is something close to a third of all US cases. It takes more than a week to die on average so you’ll get an inaccurate and low estimate of case mortality by doing that. Even if there are zero additional new cases in the USA from this point on there will continue to be thousands of additional deaths. The USA mortality rate is certainly going to be higher than what you’ve calculated. To make matters more complicated, we don’t yet have serologic (antibody) surveillance studies yet to capture mild infections that never had contact with the medical system to get a pcr virus test. And, you cannot compare country to country when different standards for testing are used. Italy is only testing people sick enough to be hospitalized now. We are testing lots of worried folks who are able to stay home. Different populations.

 

[rswyan]

JUST IN: Gov. DeWine announced the FDA has authorized Columbus-based Battelle to sterilize only 10,000 surgical masks in Ohio each day, despite their ability to sterilize up to 160,000 masks per day in Ohio alone.

Twitter

Gov. DeWine: FDA’s ‘reckless’ decision limits Battelle’s PPE mask sterilizing technology to only 10k a day | NBC4 WCMH-TV

Hard to escape the potential political aspects/ramifications of that type of a decision ... looks like extortion/blackmail ...

OTOH, never underestimate the possibility that this "limiting decision" was orchestrated ... in order for a "white knight" to come riding to the rescue ...

#neverletacrisisgotowaste

 

[k0ua]

Guys you cannot simply divide total deaths by total cases to calculate a death rate. In the USA the number of cases freshly reported in the past week is something close to a third of all US cases. It takes more than a week to die on average so you’ll get an inaccurate and low estimate of case mortality by doing that. Even if there are zero additional new cases in the USA from this point on there will continue to be thousands of additional deaths. The USA mortality rate is certainly going to be higher than what you’ve calculated. To make matters more complicated, we don’t yet have serologic (antibody) surveillance studies yet to capture mild infections that never had contact with the medical system to get a pcr virus test. And, you cannot compare country to country when different standards for testing are used. Italy is only testing people sick enough to be hospitalized now. We are testing lots of worried folks who are able to stay home. Different populations.

Oh, I understand that. But I don't have hospitalizations figures and cant' really track things.

 

[Jstpssng]

^^^^^^
In order to know the rate, we first would need to determine number of cases... which we don’t have. Nor do we know the rate of death from the flu, despite the frequent inaccurate postings we’ve seen since the first CV-19 thread. How many of you go to the doctor because you had the flu? I don’t recall having it since nineteen ninety something but I didn’t leave the house.

 

[daugen]

My BIL is an excavator in Bucks County PA and he wrote this to me today:

Just laid the men off Friday, can't afford the payroll any longer with no money coming in.

repeated in a lot of places I'm sure

 

[IslandTractor]

Oh, I understand that. But I don't have hospitalizations figures and cant' really track things.

I didn’t mean my comment as a criticism. Nobody can accurately estimate Coronavirus mortality yet. Even the widely quoted CDC data on annual influenza mortality for years past is just an estimate with a wide confidence interval of tens of thousands of cases. My point is simply that we just cannot tell what our mortality rate will be and importantly it is nearly impossible to accurately compare one country to another.

 

[rswyan]

Governor Dewine's 2PM press conference (live) on the FDA/Battelle matter, already in progress:

Coronavirus in Ohio Sunday update: 1,653 cases, 29 deaths; DeWine addresses FDA mask decision | NBC4 WCMH-TV

 

[/pine]

Many states have web pages set up (usually by the state health dept) that have comprehensive reports for the individual states...Obviously the data is only as good as the numbers they use...but they should be as good as it gets...This state updates twice daily and make it easy to do your own calculations with the latest data...

 

[ultrarunner]

N95 mask expiration date

All 21 million of California strategic stockpile of N95 is past expiration date.

The SF Chronicle story said for masks properly stored it is not the filter medium going bad but the elastic headband ensuring the proper snug fit of the mask.

Currently, in the SF Bay Area we have Nurses and Docs wearing the same single N95 for days...

The anxiety of Nurses is very apparent... the biggest fear is bringing the virus home.