brin
Super Member
Bird...I must have it has been 30 yrs. at least since I heard that story...what was it up in the tree ? I have thought it was a coon...Old timers disease has set in...LOL
Blame game
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MarkV
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CD thanks so much for sharing your front line insight. I know this hits close to home for you and this industry is how you pay your bills. I am glad you were not working that rig. We all know we need the product you produce. I don't think anyone was forgetting the tragedy the family's of those lost are feeling. It can only be described as horrific.
For me the question is whether safety measures were being over looked for the sake of profit. I surely don't mean the professional workers on the rig overlooking safety but has the industry overlooked safety. As you said there are thousands of wells out in the gulf and this tragedy brings to light that there are also thousands of potential disasters. It sure seems for to me, uneducated in the oil drilling process, that it is taking a long time and new inventions are being tried to stop the problem. I would have thought the industry would have addressed the possibility of this type of failure prior to the disaster. After all, there are thousands of potential disasters out there.
As I understand it we have already had a lose of crude that is 4x the loss in Zaldez. They are still seeing oil there after 21 years. If that turns out to be the case this time, x4, the seafood industry on the gulf will be destroyed. That is a lot of lives and 20% of US seafood jeopardized.
CD my concerns are not about the professionals working the rigs as much as the companies managing the rigs and the people regulating them.
MarkV
For me the question is whether safety measures were being over looked for the sake of profit. I surely don't mean the professional workers on the rig overlooking safety but has the industry overlooked safety. As you said there are thousands of wells out in the gulf and this tragedy brings to light that there are also thousands of potential disasters. It sure seems for to me, uneducated in the oil drilling process, that it is taking a long time and new inventions are being tried to stop the problem. I would have thought the industry would have addressed the possibility of this type of failure prior to the disaster. After all, there are thousands of potential disasters out there.
As I understand it we have already had a lose of crude that is 4x the loss in Zaldez. They are still seeing oil there after 21 years. If that turns out to be the case this time, x4, the seafood industry on the gulf will be destroyed. That is a lot of lives and 20% of US seafood jeopardized.
CD my concerns are not about the professionals working the rigs as much as the companies managing the rigs and the people regulating them.
MarkV
Bird
Rest in Peace
Bob, if you click on that link, you can hear him tell the whole story. He thought it was a coon when he climbed the tree, but it turned out to be a lynx. Not that it matters.:laughing: Jerry Clower was the favorite comedian of one of my brothers-in-law, and I liked him, too, although Justin Wilson (the Cajun) was even better, in my opinion.:laughing:
mjarrels
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When I was in the Navy at Panama City Florida, Old Red Hollind (SP) from Dothan Al. was on the TV at about 4 AM... he was so funny... Roster crows. Probably dead now. Shores of Panama City, Destin and many others are in harms way. Spent almost 4 years there.
mark USN Ret.
mark USN Ret.
Egon
Epic Contributor
Best stick to your present job!:laughing:
Don't know who Jerry Clowers is But I have heard Clifton Clowers on Wolverton Mountain has a Daughter!:thumbsup:
What a disaster for our country and the Gulf Coast States. It's an environmental disaster of epic proportion. The time for political rhetoric is over. It was said it could happen and it's happened. It's a complete and total disaster and nobody really knows what the **** to do about it. I don't think any of us should be taking it lightly.
dmccarty
Super Star Member
The Wall Street Journal has had some very in depth coverage of what happened on the rig. I certainly would not suggest that all of what happened is known but there seems to be some key points that caused the accident.
Reading the coverage it reminds me of the accident reports we read in the TBN Safety forum where someone was running a tractor or chainsaw and got in a hurry. Except in this case too many people died and billions of dollars have been lost.
Not sure how much of this I misread or was not accurate but here it is....
They key things to me:
There was a group of BP executives on the rig the day of the explosion to celebrate the safety record of the crew. I wonder if the BP manager wanted to be able to tell the bosses they were done with that phase of the project...
At this point it seems that the BP manager is the cause of this mess.
Later,
Dan
Reading the coverage it reminds me of the accident reports we read in the TBN Safety forum where someone was running a tractor or chainsaw and got in a hurry. Except in this case too many people died and billions of dollars have been lost.
Not sure how much of this I misread or was not accurate but here it is....
They key things to me:
- A meeting between the rig manager and his team along with the BP manager and his team. There was a disagreement over how to proceed given the readings the crew was seeing. The room was cleared so that only the BP and rig manager were left to have a chat. BP manager made a decision and they went down a path the rig team did not want to go.
- The drilling mud should have been cycled through the pipe to check for gas leakage. This would have taken something like 12 hours or so. The crew checked the mud for 30 minutes per the BP manager. Not enough time to check for gas leakage even though they had pressure readings that needed to be checked.
- The drilling mud should have been left in the pipe while concrete was pushed down for a final plug. The mud is needed to keep the gas from escaping. Instead BP had the crew cycle out the mud and use sea water while the plug was placed. The sea water could not hold back the gas.
- There are some other tidbits about spacers in the pipe, pressure readings and such but this seems to me to be the chain of events causing the accident.
There was a group of BP executives on the rig the day of the explosion to celebrate the safety record of the crew. I wonder if the BP manager wanted to be able to tell the bosses they were done with that phase of the project...
At this point it seems that the BP manager is the cause of this mess.
Later,
Dan
brin
Super Member
Was that the same Justin Wilson, Cajun that had the cooking show...My wife and I were huge fans of his cooking show..he was a hoot...sorry he is gone if he is one in the same.
Bird, remember the Jerry Clower one where the punch line was Ding a Ling ! Ding a Ling ! LOL:laughing:
Bird
Rest in Peace
Yep, Bob, he's the same. I first heard of him in the early '60s when WRR radio station used to have something they called the "Library of Laughs" on late at night and they sometimes played some of his stories. I eventually bought some of his albums, so I knew of him as a comedian long before I heard of his other occupations. Then in the '70s, he was the guest speaker at a couple of law enforcement conventions I went to. He was quite a character; comedian, chef, and safety consultant (used to teach in some state police academies). He was just an "honorary" deputy sheriff where he lived. His father had been what we call a county commissioner, but since Louisiana has parrishes instead of counties, I'm not sure what title his father had.
CDsdad
Platinum Member
Hey guys, I'm still offshore and haven't been able to catch up with this thread in a while. I have found out some interesting things in the past week or so. I will clarify all my remarks beforehand as personal opinion from what I have been TOLD, not what I know as fact. I believe my sources are pretty good, and some of what I know has been in the media, but nobody right now has the whole truth, in my opinion. I'm not trying to spread gossip. I just hope I can help folks understand some of this. And I'm not trying to defend or indemnify anyone.
MarkV: I understand where you are coming from. The problem for being prepared for this type of catastrophe was that it had never happened before. When the Ixtoc blew out off Mexico in 1979, it spilled 140 million bbls or so, but that was on the continental shelf, much shallower water, easier to deal with, and the oil can dissipate better on surface (that's why you are hearing about "plumes" in the media), and the Mexican government doesn't care anyway. I'm sure the major oil companies have looked at this scenario before. And I know people will think I'm crazy, but BP has actually reacted faster than I thought they would. They are on their 3rd and 4th solutions and I have it from good sources that they have engineers at every BP office around the world looking at any method that could be used.
There is nothing good in this situation. But it could be worse. If this leak had been caused by a company smaller than a MAJOR, multi-billion dollar oil company, the government would be in control now. No company smaller has the money to do what BP has done so far. And believe this, there are (compared to the BPs, Shells, and Exxons) small companies operating in deepwater. I'm glad it wasn't one of these companies. The US government wouldn't have a clue where to start to cap this leak.
At 5000', seawater exerts 2197 psi. Average seawater weight in the Gulf is 8.45 to 8.5 pounds per gallon. The math is simple: 8.45 ppg x .052(a pressure constant) x 5000' (roughly the water depth in true vertical depth) and this equation works for any column of fluid if you know the weight of the fluid and the TVD(true vertical depth). Anyway, this is so everybody knows where I'm coming from. I heard this well was roughly 19000', I may be wrong. I do know they were using a 14.2 pound per gallon (ppg) drilling fluid. I will assume BP was .5 ppg overbalanced using this fluid, as that is kind of standard for where they were at operationally in the well. If that is true, it means pore pressure in the resevoir or somewhere in the well was close to 13500 psi at about 19000'. Once the riser was displaced from 14.2 ppg mud to seawater, effective hydrostatic pressure was only around 12000 psi. The cement plugs obviously didn't hold, the BOPs failed, there is a blowout, the rig burns and sinks, and the well is exerting upward pressure of over 10000 psi at the seafloor. The 10000 psi is a SWAG estimate on my account with the limited information I have, but hopefully some folks can now see what BP is dealing with.
Maybe a detonation 1500' inside the wellbore would work. The problem is, nobody on earth knows. The top kill didn't work, again in my opinion, because there is no way to control pressure at the seafloor, and I don't think it is possible to generate enough fluid velocity to outpump the well when the fluid you are pumping is also leaking away at 5000'. I'm also afraid the cut and cap method will have limited success, although it may work if it doesn't freeze up and they can get enough pressure relief through the top to allow any kind of seal around the BOP stack. I'm praying it works. Realistically, I think one of two things will happen. Either reservoir pressure will drop from depletion and the leak will slow significantly allowing BP to gain some control, or it'll take a relief well. Not to be pessimistic, but I believe it will be the latter
I also found out who some of the supervisors on the rig were. I have worked with one of the supervisors that has had his name mentioned. All I will say is I'm glad I wasn't there.
As far as battery and BOP failures, the explosion MAY have had some effect on the failure. That is not my area of expertise, but I know enough to know there should have been redundant backups. But if all were damaged??? I don't understand why the remote shut-in didn't work. That part doesn't look right to me.
Not to try to get sympathy with the next statement, but the Gulf of Mexico is effectively shut down to drilling in water depths over 500'. I know of over 10 rigs that have shut down in the past 10 days with more to come. I'm on one of them. We'll finish securing this well in the next 72 hours, and then we're gone. My family will be fine. I know how to work and will do something, I'm not worried, and at the time I'm still employed, so I'm counting my blessings. Lots of people in the oil, fishing, and tourism industries don't know anything else, though. I feel for these people.
Another side effect of this won't be felt for a while. Unless the world economies totally tank, domestic fuel prices should start to rise with the reduction in drilling and exploration. I predict before November. That prediction and $2 will get you a cup of coffee. But, if a hurricane hits the Gulf, well, I hope I'm wrong.
Once again, please remember those that perished and their families as well as those who are suffering livelihood losses. Remember the folks working to stop the leak and pray for a resolution. Thanks to everyone who's spoken a kind word and has tried to understand what's happening.
MarkV: I understand where you are coming from. The problem for being prepared for this type of catastrophe was that it had never happened before. When the Ixtoc blew out off Mexico in 1979, it spilled 140 million bbls or so, but that was on the continental shelf, much shallower water, easier to deal with, and the oil can dissipate better on surface (that's why you are hearing about "plumes" in the media), and the Mexican government doesn't care anyway. I'm sure the major oil companies have looked at this scenario before. And I know people will think I'm crazy, but BP has actually reacted faster than I thought they would. They are on their 3rd and 4th solutions and I have it from good sources that they have engineers at every BP office around the world looking at any method that could be used.
There is nothing good in this situation. But it could be worse. If this leak had been caused by a company smaller than a MAJOR, multi-billion dollar oil company, the government would be in control now. No company smaller has the money to do what BP has done so far. And believe this, there are (compared to the BPs, Shells, and Exxons) small companies operating in deepwater. I'm glad it wasn't one of these companies. The US government wouldn't have a clue where to start to cap this leak.
At 5000', seawater exerts 2197 psi. Average seawater weight in the Gulf is 8.45 to 8.5 pounds per gallon. The math is simple: 8.45 ppg x .052(a pressure constant) x 5000' (roughly the water depth in true vertical depth) and this equation works for any column of fluid if you know the weight of the fluid and the TVD(true vertical depth). Anyway, this is so everybody knows where I'm coming from. I heard this well was roughly 19000', I may be wrong. I do know they were using a 14.2 pound per gallon (ppg) drilling fluid. I will assume BP was .5 ppg overbalanced using this fluid, as that is kind of standard for where they were at operationally in the well. If that is true, it means pore pressure in the resevoir or somewhere in the well was close to 13500 psi at about 19000'. Once the riser was displaced from 14.2 ppg mud to seawater, effective hydrostatic pressure was only around 12000 psi. The cement plugs obviously didn't hold, the BOPs failed, there is a blowout, the rig burns and sinks, and the well is exerting upward pressure of over 10000 psi at the seafloor. The 10000 psi is a SWAG estimate on my account with the limited information I have, but hopefully some folks can now see what BP is dealing with.
Maybe a detonation 1500' inside the wellbore would work. The problem is, nobody on earth knows. The top kill didn't work, again in my opinion, because there is no way to control pressure at the seafloor, and I don't think it is possible to generate enough fluid velocity to outpump the well when the fluid you are pumping is also leaking away at 5000'. I'm also afraid the cut and cap method will have limited success, although it may work if it doesn't freeze up and they can get enough pressure relief through the top to allow any kind of seal around the BOP stack. I'm praying it works. Realistically, I think one of two things will happen. Either reservoir pressure will drop from depletion and the leak will slow significantly allowing BP to gain some control, or it'll take a relief well. Not to be pessimistic, but I believe it will be the latter
I also found out who some of the supervisors on the rig were. I have worked with one of the supervisors that has had his name mentioned. All I will say is I'm glad I wasn't there.
As far as battery and BOP failures, the explosion MAY have had some effect on the failure. That is not my area of expertise, but I know enough to know there should have been redundant backups. But if all were damaged??? I don't understand why the remote shut-in didn't work. That part doesn't look right to me.
Not to try to get sympathy with the next statement, but the Gulf of Mexico is effectively shut down to drilling in water depths over 500'. I know of over 10 rigs that have shut down in the past 10 days with more to come. I'm on one of them. We'll finish securing this well in the next 72 hours, and then we're gone. My family will be fine. I know how to work and will do something, I'm not worried, and at the time I'm still employed, so I'm counting my blessings. Lots of people in the oil, fishing, and tourism industries don't know anything else, though. I feel for these people.
Another side effect of this won't be felt for a while. Unless the world economies totally tank, domestic fuel prices should start to rise with the reduction in drilling and exploration. I predict before November. That prediction and $2 will get you a cup of coffee. But, if a hurricane hits the Gulf, well, I hope I'm wrong.
Once again, please remember those that perished and their families as well as those who are suffering livelihood losses. Remember the folks working to stop the leak and pray for a resolution. Thanks to everyone who's spoken a kind word and has tried to understand what's happening.
Egon
Epic Contributor
Thanks for the information CDsDad.:thumbsup:
MossRoad
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Just a moderator's note....
Keep the politics out of the thread or it will be closed.
Thanks.
Keep the politics out of the thread or it will be closed.
Thanks.
dmccarty
Super Star Member
Does anyone remember the Ixtox oil well failure? I do but I was shocked at how many years ago it happened.
It was in 1979-1980. It spilled up to an estimated 428 MILLION gallons of oil.
The Cadiz in 1978 might have lost as much as 76 million gallons.
There have been many accidents from the 1970's in which 30 to 80 million gallons of oil have been spilled.
****** Hussein dumped 200-400 million gallons into the Persian Gulf.
The Exxon Valdez was 11 million gallons.
Deepwater Horizon is at 29 million at the end of May. Likely up toward 35 million today.
Later,
Dan
It was in 1979-1980. It spilled up to an estimated 428 MILLION gallons of oil. The Cadiz in 1978 might have lost as much as 76 million gallons.
There have been many accidents from the 1970's in which 30 to 80 million gallons of oil have been spilled.
****** Hussein dumped 200-400 million gallons into the Persian Gulf.
The Exxon Valdez was 11 million gallons.
Deepwater Horizon is at 29 million at the end of May. Likely up toward 35 million today.
Later,
Dan
brin
Super Member
Does anyone remember the Ixtox oil well failure? I do but I was shocked at how many years ago it happened.
The Cadiz in 1978 might have lost as much as 76 million gallons.
There have been many accidents from the 1970's in which 30 to 80 million gallons of oil have been spilled.
****** Hussein dumped 200-400 million gallons into the Persian Gulf.
The Exxon Valdez was 11 million gallons.
Deepwater Horizon is at 29 million at the end of May. Likely up toward 35 million today.
Later,
Dan
I had forgotten that ...good information...thanks for the reminder...
Chuck52
Veteran Member
Does anyone really know how much is coming out of Deepwater Horizon? I see all kinds of estimates. However much it is, it sure seems likely to leave a nasty mess for a long time.
Chuck
Chuck
rekees4300
Elite Member
The preliminary best estimate that was released on May 27 by the semi-official Flow Rate Technical Group put the volume of oil flowing from the blown-out well at 12,000 to 19,000 barrels (500,000 to 800,000 US gallons; 1,900,000 to 3,000,000 litres) per day, which had amounted to between 440,000 and 700,000 barrels (18,000,000 and 29,000,000 US gallons; 70,000,000 and 111,000,000 litres) as of that date. The exact spill flow rate is uncertain in part because BP has refused to allow independent scientists to perform accurate measurements and is a matter of ongoing debate. BP is naturally going to lowball the estimate because they will have to pay a fine based on the quantity.
aczlan
Good Morning
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Possible technical reasons for not doing the flow measurements may include:
* They dont have an extra ROV to tie up performing flow measurements
* They dont have space for another ROV at the end of the riser (According to this page there are 12 ROVs down there)
* They dont want to dedicate a ROV to performing such measurements (and haven't been ordered to)
And a question of mine (which may explain their reason to not want to measure the quantity coming out): Is is possible to measure the mix of oil and gas?
In order to accurately measure flow, you would have to measure both the amount of oil AND the amount of gas coming out of the pipe. I can see someone taking to total of both and running all over the news with it, but I do not see how you could accurately differentiate between the amount of oil and the amount of gas coming out.
As for the amount of oil spilled for the fine, they know what the pressure at the BOP was before cutting the pipe, they will know how much oil and gas they are pumping up (and at what pressure) when they finish the new cap and with that they should be able to accurately measure the flow before and after INCLUDING the oil to gas ratio. A side effect is that there is no concrete number for the press to wave around.
As for it being the biggest spill, it is the largest spill in US history, it MAY become the largest spill in the history of the Gulf of Mexico, but currently that "honor" is held by Ixtoc I oil spill.
Aaron Z
