Future of HVAC and industry supply issues.

[ultrarunner]

Just had to have some old units repaired and recharged at our church. R-22 was billed at about $500 per lb for less than 2 lbs, $225 per pound for over 2 lbs. Are we headed to a point where A/C is not affordable.

Makes me yearn for the simple life before forced obsolescence.

Still have a 15lb R22 at home… the way things go I will probably keep so long it becomes worthless.

 

[MinnesotaEric]

Just had to have some old units repaired and recharged at our church. R-22 was billed at about $500 per lb for less than 2 lbs, $225 per pound for over 2 lbs. Are we headed to a point where A/C is not affordable.

R22 is expensive these days

r22 at DuckDuckGo

DuckDuckGo. Privacy, Simplified.

duckduckgo.com

But even R410A is getting expensive.

 

[Sigarms]

News flash

Last month R454B was more expensive than R22.

R410A is still more than reasonable, and is still less than it sold for a couple of years ago.

Talked to the realtor on selling our home. I'm kind of forced to fix the AC in the basement even though it doesn't need it because I gas furnace is there. The other week, I grabbed a R410A system because I could. I'll probably replace that in August when it's hot because it's below grade. The attic system is still R22, and I'll replace that last, but it will be with R454B the end of this year or the beginning of next year because it will be cooler in the attic.

 

[MinnesotaEric]

News flash

Last month R454B was more expensive than R22.

R410A is still more than reasonable, and is still less than it sold for a couple of years ago.

Talked to the realtor on selling our home. I'm kind of forced to fix the AC in the basement even though it doesn't need it because I gas furnace is there. The other week, I grabbed a R410A system because I could. I'll probably replace that in August when it's hot because it's below grade. The attic system is still R22, and I'll replace that last, but it will be with R454B the end of this year or the beginning of next year because it will be cooler in the attic.

With my buy-side clients (among other things, I'm a real estate broker here in MN), if there is a problem with an R22 system, we ask for a new replacement system. Part of the problem is the HVAC guys don't want to touch R22 systems anymore and for punch lists and inspections, we need deficiencies done by licensed pros.

 

[Sigarms]

With my buy-side clients (among other things, I'm a real estate broker here in MN), if there is a problem with an R22 system, we ask for a new replacement system. Part of the problem is the HVAC guys don't want to touch R22 systems anymore and for punch lists and inspections, we need deficiencies done by licensed pros.

The biggest issue with R22 is not the refrigerant itself being expensive, but finding a compatible compressor bearing unit to go with a air handler or a air handler with a compressor bearing equipment.

This is now becoming the issue with R410A units in residential applications. R410 equipment was stopped being made end of 2024, and it will be illegal to install a complete R410A system in 2026.

Smart contractors already converted to either 454 or 32 at the beginning of this year.

 

[Sigarms]

Daikin… I have one package unit on the roof and it’s the newest not counting the Bryant recent install…

Maybe I got a bad one but it was advertised as a direct Carrier replacement but it was not… had leaking coil and bad compressor under warranty but took months to get the coil from
Asia.

The reason why it's called a direct replacement isn't due to the "quality", but the physical dimensions of the unit where you don't need to to use a curb adaptor, which could have huge cost savings if you had to replace multiple units on one roof.

Carrier dominated the rooftop market decades ago. More than a couple of manufacturers copied Carrier's physical design as well as all of your hookups to help save on time for replacement.

Daikin / Goodman commercial rooftops use micro channel coils, which also enables them to sell them cheaper. They (Daikin / Goodman) are notorious at least in my area for quality issues. Ironically the other brand big on marketing Carrier direct replacements is York. Personally, I wouldn't use either brand.

 

[KennyG]

Last year we replaced a Carrier unit because the heat exchanger failed after about 5 years. We went to a Daikin because it was almost 10k cheaper and had a 10 year HX / coil warranty which others did not.

 

[Sigarms]

Last year we replaced a Carrier unit because the heat exchanger failed after about 5 years. We went to a Daikin because it was almost 10k cheaper and had a 10 year HX / coil warranty which others did not.

Pretty much every residential gas furnace has a minimum of a 20 year warranty if the heat exchanger fails unless it's installed in a commercial application.

If you had that Carrier furnace for 5 years after it was installed, the heat exchanger was under parts warranty and you should only expect to pay the labor to replace that heat exchanger.

If a heat exchanger in a gas furnace goes out after 5 years, most likely a issue with airflow.

If you paid anywhere near 10k for a gas furnace replacement, no nice way to put it other than you got ripped off. Most likely at that cost difference a complete HVAC system?

 

[KennyG]

The replacement was a rooftop package unit at my church. The total cost was over 25k. The failed unit was old and had already had the HX replaced once and failed again in a little over 5 years.

 

[Sigarms]

The replacement was a rooftop package unit at my church. The total cost was over 25k. The failed unit was old and had already had the HX replaced once and failed again in a little over 5 years.

Sorry, commercial a different story on warranty.

Still, Carrier has a minimum of 10 year heat exchanger warranty along with a 5 year compressor and 1 year parts warranty on 3 phase package equipment as well as most everyone else. Not certain if your package unit was only 5 years old why the heat exchanger wasn't covered.

Goodman / Daikin micro channel cooling coils leave a lot to be desired IMO.

That said, dealings with churches can be interesting on commercial jobs, particularly with their finance committee

 

[KennyG]

I went back and looked at my documentation. The Carrier HX coverage was limited because it was a replacement HX, not the original. Replacement components don't have the same warranty as new units. We did have proposals for Carrier and other makes with 10 year HX warranties. However the Daikin has a 20 year HX warranty and was about $25K vs. $35K for other brands. I hope we don't have problems with the coil but the HX issues were so troublesome and expensive we were most concerned with that.

It's a 60 year old facility with a 40 year old addition and another 35 year old addition. It has two rooftop package units, a heat pump system, two mini-split units, 4 A/C units with air handlers and an original massive natural gas boiler. If the HVAC is all working correctly, we have the 8 bathrooms and two kitchens to keep in good shape. Gives me a pretty good retirement hobby.

 

[ultrarunner]

The reason why it's called a direct replacement isn't due to the "quality", but the physical dimensions of the unit where you don't need to to use a curb adaptor, which could have huge cost savings if you had to replace multiple units on one roof.

Carrier dominated the rooftop market decades ago. More than a couple of manufacturers copied Carrier's physical design as well as all of your hookups to help save on time for replacement.

Daikin / Goodman commercial rooftops use micro channel coils, which also enables them to sell them cheaper. They (Daikin / Goodman) are notorious at least in my area for quality issues. Ironically the other brand big on marketing Carrier direct replacements is York. Personally, I wouldn't use either brand.

The Daikin fit the roof ok without curb adaptor but the gas, electric, condensate all needed to be reworked and unlike the Carrier there was no place to mount the disconnect on the unit…

 

[ultrarunner]

Last year we replaced a Carrier unit because the heat exchanger failed after about 5 years. We went to a Daikin because it was almost 10k cheaper and had a 10 year HX / coil warranty which others did not.

Daikin written warranty length is great but 3 months downtime waiting for a warranty coil to ship from Asia sucked and Daikin refused to even speak with me the end user that specifies HVAC as part of a 80,000 employee strong company.

I detailed my experience company wide via internal engineer’s forum.

In my view a big mistake on Daikin’s part… but just my opinion.

Maybe luck but my only gas pack repairs limited to contactors, capacitors and condenser fan motors… with most units now 30 years old.

The three tenant responsibility York Heat Pumps have had plenty of issues but I’m not directly involved…

 

[Sigarms]

The Daikin fit the roof ok without curb adaptor but the gas, electric, condensate all needed to be reworked and unlike the Carrier there was no place to mount the disconnect on the unit…

York is pretty much same for same vs the Daiken/Goodman (at least 7 years ago when they had been out for a while). Since then, I don't prefer York (AKA JCI) as well as either Daikin/Goodman for commercial applications for a Carrier retrofit.

I'm really hoping Bosch straightens out JCI now they they bought them out. Bosch sucks on their internal software to use, but is a better quality built unit than JCI IMO. My hope is Bosch learns fron JCI software and JCI improves with Bosch quality.

The irony is Bosch is made in China and JCI is made in Kansas (residential) and Oklahoma (commercial). The days of "Made in Amercia" is long gone when it comes to quality being built in the USA for HVAC IMO,

 

[ultrarunner]

With my buy-side clients (among other things, I'm a real estate broker here in MN), if there is a problem with an R22 system, we ask for a new replacement system. Part of the problem is the HVAC guys don't want to touch R22 systems anymore and for punch lists and inspections, we need deficiencies done by licensed pros.

Sounds like a buyers market…

For so long sales around here were over bids and the half that were not cash buyers often got left out because the cash buyers could move quick and buy as is…

My last 3 purchases never had third party inspections and as-is with my eyes only inspecting.

Current home is 1993 and with a 1993 Carrier HVAC with R22. It needed a new thermostat and vent blower.

I’m the only home in the neighborhood with A/C and I do use it about 10 days annually…

With the Heat Pump mandate A/C is making inroads when the typical 1960 gas furnaces are replaced but then service upgrade required and solar also often gets installed plus EV charging station…

Market has just started to turn but still overbids in the under million…

A recent offering the first time buyers really wanted the 1960 home and ordered all the inspection and were quite bummed when the estate said nope… buy it or not.

Inspector flagged the Federal Pacific Breaker Box, no GFCI, 2-Prong Outlets except for garage and kitchen, single pane windows and non-tempered shower and patio glass doors and no air gap dishwasher.

Buyer couldn’t understand why seller was unwilling to update and I said because seller is selling as-is a 1959 well maintained one owner home.

Home ended up going back on market and selling for 65k more as-is…

 

[MinnesotaEric]

Sounds like a buyers market…

For so long sales around here were over bids and the half that were not cash buyers often got left out because the cash buyers could move quick and buy as is…

My last 3 purchases never had third party inspections and as-is with my eyes only inspecting.

Current home is 1993 and with a 1993 Carrier HVAC with R22. It needed a new thermostat and vent blower.

I’m the only home in the neighborhood with A/C and I do use it about 10 days annually…

With the Heat Pump mandate A/C is making inroads when the typical 1960 gas furnaces are replaced but then service upgrade required and solar also often gets installed plus EV charging station…

Market has just started to turn but still overbids in the under million…

A recent offering the first time buyers really wanted the 1960 home and ordered all the inspection and were quite bummed when the estate said nope… buy it or not.

Inspector flagged the Federal Pacific Breaker Box, no GFCI, 2-Prong Outlets except for garage and kitchen, single pane windows and non-tempered shower and patio glass doors and no air gap dishwasher.

Buyer couldn’t understand why seller was unwilling to update and I said because seller is selling as-is a 1959 well maintained one owner home.

Home ended up going back on market and selling for 65k more as-is…

Where I'm at homes have robust HVAC systems. In fact, the first thing I look at in any home—whether I'm listing it or showing it—is how the how the home is heated and cooled, if there are redundant HVAV systems (for example my own home has a super efficient boiler system that I flip on when below 10°F, a heat pump system for both heating and cooling and two fire places should ammo and henchmen become the new asset class of choice) and then how the attic or roof is ventilated.

The reason for this is that a large number of homes somehow screw up roof venting costing energy in the summer to cool the home and ice damns in the winter that eventually damage the roof and gutters and sometimes much more.

That said, yup, cash is king and "as is" sales have legal pitfalls on the disclosure side. As a practice, whether banks owned or inherited, most Minnesota brokers will not have the seller fill out disclosures on an "As Is" sales as doing so opens everybody up to liability concerns. As a result, the disclosures are whatever the listing agent noticed during their walk-through, whatever records the county maintains, and all buyers are strongly urged to get an inspection so as to become aware of deficiencies even if they are well aware the "as is" seller will not fix any deficiencies.

 

[ultrarunner]

Growing up we never heated or cooled except when the great aunts came over for Christmas and Thanksgiving and then often only a roaring fire.

Could be why so many 1920’s homes still have only a 20,000 BTU floor furnace.

Plenty of homes in the million to 2 million range without A/C… some still with single pane windows and little to no insulation…

I’ve read some humorous disclosures that can be summed up saying old house, everything is old and may or may not function… use caution… inspection highly recommended.

 

[kenmac]

Could be why so many 1920’s homes still have only a 20,000 BTU floor furnace.

I've worked on thousands of these. Even installed a few way back when .
Pretty simple units, but about every one was going to be a crawl to make repairs

 

[ultrarunner]

I've worked on thousands of these. Even installed a few way back when .
Pretty simple units, but about every one was going to be a crawl to make repairs

Very true… crawl space here is typically 3 to 3.5 feet

I long ago converted almost all to automatic with gas valve but still 2 that are gas key only…

Also a few wall furnaces and one that fits into a fireplace opening.

Are we really saving in the big picture in a mild climate when new furnaces have control boards, vented exhaust, interlocks, spark igniters, etc?

I’ve never had a mercury thermostat go bad but have replaced plenty of digital ones.

 

[kenmac]

Very true… crawl space here is typically 3 to 3.5 feet

I long ago converted almost all to automatic with gas valve but still 2 that are gas key only…

Worked on about as many millivolt systems as I did 24 v systems. Great thing about the millivolt system was, you had heat in the winter during a power outage.

Later on, we replaced the old FF's for central heat and cooling systems. Used the old FF opening as the return !