- Joined
- Sep 6, 2011
- Messages
- 12,819
- Location
- Philadelphia
- Tractor
- John Deere 3033R, 855 MFWD, 757 ZTrak; IH Cub Cadet 123
Claims of "common sense" are almost never useful in complex problems, where things can often run contrary to intuition.
I have people routinely tell me that circuits take two wires, a closed loop... it's "common sense". But I make my living sending electrical energy down hollow pipes, like water, without a separate conductor for current return path.
Of course you're right here, there are people making money by taking every half-baked hypothesis and either pushing policy or products, based upon it. I won't argue with you there. But that doesn't invalidate the science. To use your own words, "They are two separate things."
I have seen many times, a scientist says "early data shows maybe this caused that, more analysis required", and the next month everything from headlines to congress are saying, "we need to stop that by reversing this". It's even more obvious in medicine than in climate science. But don't confuse these opportunists, who are either deliberately or foolishly misinterpreting or construing scientific findings and hypotheses, for the actual science or scientists.
The quote is getting old and tired now, and I didn't even like Bertram Russell, but he was onto something when he said, "the fundamental cause of the trouble is that, in the modern world, the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt." Don't be so sure you have figured out what so many people studying massive data models have not been able to conclusively understand, despite decades of effort.
I suppose I do like to always be sure both sides of a debate are represented, at least when I have nothing tying me particularly tight to one side or the other.
