Market Watch

[Hay Dude]

I don’t doubt there’s jobs available in new tech fields. Have them here in the “dying east”, too.

The problem is for every new job with solar panels or “intelligence” to spy on each other on the internet, there’s more jobs lost in actually making things people use in everyday life.

 

[rScotty]

I don’t doubt there’s jobs available in new tech fields. Have them here in the “dying east”, too.

The problem is for every new job with solar panels or “intelligence” to spy on each other on the internet, there’s more jobs lost in actually making things people use in everyday life.

Same here. Skilled & trade jobs go unfilled for lack of applicants. Of the jobs that do get filled, many don't actually make or do anything useful. Handouts aren't helping, but migrants are.
Personally I wish that was different.

 

[Hay Dude]

I liked previous policies of luring industry back here with lower taxes as an incentive and right to work states not requiring union cards.
I also liked the “energy independence” mindset and the “build it here” for national security strategy.
Having to rely on China for everything from toilet paper to food to microchips for national defense weapons is a losers strategy bound to destroy us from outside, while our gov___ment destroys us from the inside.

 

[jyoutz]

We know. You’ve told us like 10-15 times


Irrelevant. People get mortgages in the 3’s & 4’s then they make big jumps to 6’s & 7’s. Yeah I know, it’s in the fine print, but rates don’t always have to go up that much, either.
And what caused the high interest rates? Runaway inflation
And what caused runaway inflation? Government overspending.

Are you suggesting that Reagan/Bush in the 1980s caused high rates? My son and his wife closed on a house last week in Baton Rouge. 4.5% fixed rate mortgage, 30 years.

 

[Hay Dude]

Are you suggesting that Reagan/Bush in the 1980s caused high rates? My son and his wife closed on a house last week in Baton Rouge. 4.5% fixed rate mortgage, 30 years.

Rates were the highest in 80-82 because of your buddy Jimmy C‘s fiscal policies.
Same as ’22-‘24 because of the “Big Guy’s” fiscal policies in ‘21-‘22.

I think you can understand that interest rates are a lagging indicator or high inflation from a few years previous, right?

High inflation ‘78-’80 = high interest in ‘80-‘82?
High inflation ‘21-‘22 = high interest in ‘22-‘24?

See the pattern?

 

[Torvy]

Here in the front range of the Rocky Mountains - the Colo Springs & Denver to Wyoming area - we are seeing an interesing rise in lateral job movement as employers are hiring workers from competitors.

It even extends to small towns and suburban municipalities hiring each other's municipal employees. Especially those who have required state certifications....water production, sewage, electrical, building inspection.

That job movement always existed, but the competitive market it is growing very fast. A lot of it is driven by increasing educational regulations - and the cost to the municipality of complying with those regulations and certifications.
Basically It is cheaper to hire a "class C water operator" than to train one. And so we have higher wages, benefits, & newest of all: 90 day hiring bonuses.

rScotty

You're talking about a bad thing. When the job 'growth' is in government, it is not good for the economy.

Lateral movement is also not a good sign. What it means is the employees they hire tend to be awful and they are constantly looking to replace them.

If wage growth is due to productivity increases, that's good. When it is just a response to inflation or policy decisions, it just spirals inflation higher.

Expansion in the private sector has slowed significantly. The signs are all there for a collapse, including a run up in the market. The tipping point is coming and it will not be pretty, especially for those young people who have an entitled attitude.

 

[Hay Dude]

^^^ Exactly. We already have 25 million people working for the gov___ment.
We need to reduce the duplicity and onerous, overbearing numbers by millions to get spending under control.

Look at what Argentina had to do. They are cutting gov___ment down by whopping numbers so people don’t die of mass starvation. Let’s not even go there.

The observation that interest rates are low compared to a period like 80-82 is like saying only half my house burned down, but it’s better than my whole house burning down.

High interest rates and inflation reduce sales of American made goods and cause more layoffs, resulting in less goods sold.

 

[jyoutz]

Rates were the highest in 80-82 because of your buddy Jimmy C‘s fiscal policies.
Same as ’22-‘24 because of the “Big Guy’s” fiscal policies in ‘21-‘22.

I think you can understand that interest rates are a lagging indicator or high inflation from a few years previous, right?

High inflation ‘78-’80 = high interest in ‘80-‘82?
High inflation ‘21-‘22 = high interest in ‘22-‘24?

See the pattern?

My buddy? I was in grade school during Carter days. But my 1987, it was Reagan/Bush for 7 years. The entire WORLD has been in post covid inflation and the U.S. has lower rates than most of the world today. Current interest rates are around a desirable level for economic stability. The mortgage that I refinanced in 2021 for 2.75% is unrealistically low.

 

[Torvy]

Rates were the highest in 80-82 because of your buddy Jimmy C‘s fiscal policies.
Same as ’22-‘24 because of the “Big Guy’s” fiscal policies in ‘21-‘22.

I think you can understand that interest rates are a lagging indicator or high inflation from a few years previous, right?

Interest rates are a tool the Fed can use to try to slow inflation. In the 70s Keynsian economics were all the rage. Turns out Keynes was wrong. (GOVT cannot spend its way out of problems). The recent issue was a self-inflicted wound caused by people who fundamentally do not understand economics.

In both cases, the Fed started moving rates too late and thus had to raise them more quickly. Quick adjustments to the economy are like quick adjustments on an icy road...the difference this time is that the Fed and Congres were working at cross purposes, essentially hitting the gas and the brakes at the same time on ice. What could go wrong?

The reason rates were higher then is that the base was 4%, not 0%.

In the 80s, Reagan's policies had to make things worse in the short term to fix the damage. He also had to deal with a hostile Congress for his entire presidency. That meant he could not cut spending as much as he wanted. He had to trade with Tip to get things done.

 

[2manyrocks]

Huge sudden increase in the M2 money supply beginning March, 2020 preceded by about 10 years of substantial increase.

Would be interesting to compare tractor list prices every year from 2007 to present if there was any way to get that data.

 

[rScotty]

You're talking about a bad thing. When the job 'growth' is in government, it is not good for the economy.

Lateral movement is also not a good sign. What it means is the employees they hire tend to be awful and they are constantly looking to replace them.

If wage growth is due to productivity increases, that's good. When it is just a response to inflation or policy decisions, it just spirals inflation higher.

Expansion in the private sector has slowed significantly. The signs are all there for a collapse, including a run up in the market. The tipping point is coming and it will not be pretty, especially for those young people who have an entitled attitude.

No. We are talking about a good thing. Those opinions on he type of growth don't fit what we have here because they are based a wrong assumption about where the growth is.

The job growth we have is because of population increase. The size of government has not grown, but the work it does has grown because it serves more people. More people simply mean more need for road maintenance, more building, more municipal water, more sewage, more record keeping. The same government facility now needs to run longer hours eac day. It used to run fine with less staff running only 40 hr weeks because it served a smaller community.

The quality of the employees is fine. You say they are awful; they are not. More of the same are needed because of the extra hours. More traffic = more road maintenance and so on..

Existing wages are reasonable - they fit expenses and typical benefits. The problem is lack of workers. Local government has no need to raise taxes - more people spending and rising property values automatically create the needed revenue.

Expansion in the private sector here has accelerated, not slowed. Full employment means there are more people working with more and higher paying jobs. They are spending more on everything from hard goods to entertanment and leisure. They are buying goods and services that they did not buy before. All that spending is good for the private sector.

The jobs exist. What is needed is more workers. If we cannot fill them from our own population then people will migrate here to fill the void.

 

[2manyrocks]

USA Facts says the federal govt spends about double per person in the USA today compared to what they spent per person in 1980 adjusted for inflation. How much money does the government spend per person?

 

[jyoutz]

Interest rates are a tool the Fed can use to try to slow inflation. In the 70s Keynsian economics were all the rage. Turns out Keynes was wrong. (GOVT cannot spend its way out of problems). The recent issue was a self-inflicted wound caused by people who fundamentally do not understand economics.

In both cases, the Fed started moving rates too late and thus had to raise them more quickly. Quick adjustments to the economy are like quick adjustments on an icy road...the difference this time is that the Fed and Congres were working at cross purposes, essentially hitting the gas and the brakes at the same time on ice. What could go wrong?

The reason rates were higher then is that the base was 4%, not 0%.

In the 80s, Reagan's policies had to make things worse in the short term to fix the damage. He also had to deal with a hostile Congress for his entire presidency. That meant he could not cut spending as much as he wanted. He had to trade with Tip to get things done.

Do you remember Gerald Ford’s WIN (whip inflation now) buttons? Also I remember the huge defense buildup spending during the Reagan years, so you can’t attribute this to just domestic spending. The defense buildup did result in collapse of the Soviet Union, so maybe the inflation was worth it.

 

[two_bit_score]

Every employer in my area is hiring and most aren’t getting enough applicants. The job market is red hot if someone has relevant skills and/or education. I hear this throughout the region, not just in my state.

One consistent thing I keep hearing from people looking for work is that advertised jobs don’t actually result in people being hired.

Kinda like the real estate market; lots on the market overpriced or poor locations/conditions that are not being bought.

 

[jyoutz]

One consistent thing I keep hearing from people looking for work is that advertised jobs don’t actually result in people being hired.

Kinda like the real estate market; lots on the market overpriced or poor locations/conditions that are not being bought.

I keep hearing from my contractor friends that they cannot find help. In my field we cannot fill jobs in the more remote locations, just in the popular communities. I spent a couple days in the recruiting booth back in October at a professional meeting interviewing recent and next semester graduates. They have so many choices that they can pick and choose. Totally different than when I graduated. I had to work in Timbuktu for several years before opportunities to move became available.

 

[two_bit_score]

The jobs exist. What is needed is more workers. If we cannot fill them from our own population then people will migrate here to fill the void.

The government dole is still too attractive to both immigrant and citizens alike.

 

[jyoutz]

The government dole is still too attractive to both immigrant and citizens alike.

There’s a bit of exaggeration in that theory. I see lots of immigrants from poor countries regularly, legal and otherwise. They are the ones who show up every day to do the hard labor jobs. They make up the bulk of farm and ranch labor and they are the ones running chainsaws to do forest thinning, or swinging a hoedad planting trees in a wildfire area. And doing roofing, stucco work, and landscaping.

 

[two_bit_score]

In my field we cannot fill jobs in the more remote locations, just in the popular communities.

I have always said, “anyone who wants to work can get a job”. I’ve even created jobs for myself within the organization I was working for - job development and self preservation.

I doubt what you do and certainly what I did and to some extent still do is what the average person needing a job can just walk in to.

 

[FriendwithTractor]

The Idiot

"So C'mon you fine young fellers who've been beaten to the ground. There's self respect and a steady check in this refinery. Oh the streets aren't clean and there's nothing green, but the government dole will rot your soul back there in your hometown."

 

[two_bit_score]

USA Facts says the federal govt spends about double per person in the USA today compared to what they spent per person in 1980 adjusted for inflation. How much money does the government spend per person?

I would like to see some more specific categories instead of per capita. SS payments to retirees vs SSI payments to people who have never contributed to SS, for example.