Battery based electric vehicles of today and tomorrow.

[coobie]

You may not know that Natural Gas was the BIG Fail for Texas, followed by Coal and Nukes? Wind was not allocated much, as Wind tends be lower in the Winter and Summer than in the Spring and Fall.

But a life time ago, your area was my area -- but economically the area sort of went on an economic decline. Thing that is rough with a decline -- it is hard to get new investment. You could change all that at anytime, but I think we both know that is not too likely? In areas of expanding economy, there are new poles, wires, even new substations going in all the time. Just mentioning that so you to do not over-expand your experience beyond your own experience.

But as we quit wasting so much investment money into Gas and Oil, it frees US to do useful things -- like expand and renew the Grid. You have seen or read the numbers? It takes very little growth of the overall generation or grid load to take all the present US Ground Transportation to Electric. And once we are free US from Gas and Oil, we will have the money to do so.

I understand the new poles.subs and such installed a bunch in my life time..Maybe since you are in the electric field you DO understand even when we build new power lines the power companies (at least around Michigan) build to handle the bare minimum of power/load output a $$ thing I assume.I often wondered when setting 50 poles "new construction" on a job why in the hell are we putting #4 acsr wire on the pole verses 336 wire for future load.Why are we installing single phase wire instead of 3 phase on medium X arms? Again a $$ thing IMHO.Keep costs down and keep the stock holders happy along with the Michigan public service commission ..

 

[Phil Timmons]

I understand the new poles.subs and such installed a bunch in my life time..Maybe since you are in the electric field you DO understand even when we build new power lines the power companies (at least around Michigan) build to handle the bare minimum of power/load output a $$ thing I assume.I often wondered when setting 50 poles "new construction" on a job why in the hell are we putting #4 acsr wire on the pole verses 336 wire for future load.Why are we installing single phase wire instead of 3 phase on medium X arms? Again a $$ thing IMHO.Keep costs down and keep the stock holders happy along with the Michigan public service commission ..

Think of the mindset that is driving your experience? The people behind the decision(s) -- say wire size for example -- are sincerely expecting NO GROWTH.

Maybe (even more?) Negative Growth. If they have done a correct business case analysis . . . they may be correct.

If you climbed down from the pole one day, and had to walk into doing the long-term planning for your region or even say the state -- what could tell them for the "look-ahead" for demand? 2% Growth per year? 1% Growth? 0%? or even Negative Growth? I am not saying there is some right or wrong answer, but does it not look the plan matches Zero or maybe even Negative Growth?

There are some paths out of this situation, if desired . . . but it may not be desired -- the present situation may be intentional.

 

[goeduck]

For a long time the added load due to growth was partially offset by more efficient appliances, lights, etc.

As has been mentioned, now we are talking about replacing one enegry source at the home with another adding a huge burden to the electrical infrastructure (on top of that added by population growth).

I just do not see it without new power plants, new transmission lines, etc. I have not heard much about new power plants.

 

[coobie]

Think of the mindset that is driving your experience? The people behind the decision(s) -- say wire size for example -- are sincerely expecting NO GROWTH.

Maybe (even more?) Negative Growth. If they have done a correct business case analysis . . . they may be correct.

If you climbed down from the pole one day, and had to walk into doing the long-term planning for your region or even say the state -- what could tell them for the "look-ahead" for demand? 2% Growth per year? 1% Growth? 0%? or even Negative Growth? I am not saying there is some right or wrong answer, but does it not look the plan matches Zero or maybe even Negative Growth?

There are some paths out of this situation, if desired . . . but it may not be desired -- the present situation may be intentional.

If you want my experience the people driving these decisions are a bunch knuckle heads who are clueless.Back 20-25 years ago we hired TRUE electric engineers.To save $$ our company got rid of most of them and hired shall we say the CAD class kids who sit on there butts and design chit from there desk and seldom go out in the field..On your other growth numbers thats for them college educated types to figure out.Heck they might even screw that up to..

 

[Larry Caldwell]

If it wasn't for Federal subsidies Musk would have been **** up long ago.

That's true. Tesla was a big beneficiary of Obama's tech-start program during the Great Recession. If it were not for federal-private partnership, Tesla would never have shipped its first car. To his credit, Musk made the most of the opportunity, unlike the solar startup that squandered millions on fancy offices and went broke right away.

 

[Larry Caldwell]

While Mossy touched in ethanol which I dislike anyway, while I don't grow corn for alcohol production. Most people don't know that if you contract to grow corn for ethanol, you must grow a specific variety, usually mandate by the distiller. Not just any corn but a specific variety, genetically altered to produce more sugars.

To me the whole ethanol thing is nothing but big government dictating what you have to use in your vehicle and as a reference, it takes more energy to produce corn liquor than the liquor produces. Its a net looser and always has been and if the Gummit don't subsidize them (distillers) they would fold.

Probably come up with some sort of surcharge on plug in cars too. You have to pay your pound of flesh no matter what.

Biofuels are here to stay. Certainly if ethanol was not mandated the oil companies would not deal with it. If you think that's a subsidy, go for it. Direct ethanol subsidy ended almost a decade ago, and those were actually a 45 cent a gallon subsidy to oil refiners, not the farmers or distillers.

As for the energy budget, the nice thing about corn ethanol is that after you ferment the sugars out, you still have the oil and protein. Feed lots cluster around ethanol plants because they can get a steady supply of cheap wet brewers grains and feed it up to 30% in cattle rations. Carbs are cheap, particularly since cattle can make direct use of cellulose as a carbohydrate source. Protein is the expensive ingredient in feed.

Hogs do not do well on brewer's grains, but chickens can make limited use of the feed source. None of it goes into a landfill. A little bit gets dried and distributed, but the energy costs of drying limit that market. Wet brewers grains that can be trucked a few miles to a cattle feed lot are where the profit is.

 

[Phil Timmons]

If you want my experience the people driving these decisions are a bunch knuckle heads who are clueless.Back 20-25 years ago we hired TRUE electric engineers.To save $$ our company got rid of most of them and hired shall we say the CAD class kids who sit on there butts and design chit from there desk and seldom go out in the field..On your other growth numbers thats for them college educated types to figure out.Heck they might even screw that up to..

As for the "true" engineers stuff . . . most of US Engineers under an ABET (that is the Industry Board for accreditation) College Program will have at least some of this -- it is part of Industrial Engineering, and called "Engineering Economics." Bunches (and bunches) of Spreadsheets. Cash Flows on various models -- like we were talking about above -- Some Growth, No Growth, Negative Growth. Really sharp organizations will do what are called Scenario Planning -- we plan for Best Case, Worst Case, and Changed Case.

For the Best Case, you try to be profitable, the Worse Case you try to survive, and Changed Case you try to flexible. Sound like your folks are trying to survive a Worst Case, so they are conservative, holding onto Cash, and keep things from losing money? Just trying to describe the typical business thinking behind the actions that you are describing.

But Michigan does NOT HAVE TO BE in that case. It is all driven by mindsets, and how to turn the stumbling blocks into stepping stones -- (sorry for the typical pep-talk jargon).

When you are doing Scenario Planning -- you are NOT supposed to use just one case (Best, Worst, or Changed) and use it as the ONLY Case. In practice, you may have noticed that Texas always/only uses the Best Case -- for example, Oil at $100. Massive Growth, etc., etc., etc. It is why Texas is always going Boom and Bust. When the Worst Case hits (Oil at less than $0) or the BIG WINTER Storm -- Texas is standing flat foot fued. Again -- always only driven by the mindset.

 

[Larry Caldwell]

Do you mean where for "US Ground Transportation going (at least mostly) Electric?"

It is already happening. Even cheap Gasoline or Diesel cannot compete. Retail Electricity is less than 1/4 the price of "Cheap" Gasoline or Diesel.

Renewable Electricity (Silicon Solar PV in particular) has become so cheap, that businesses or even normal folks can "fuel" or charge at their own place for "Free."

Going out further, Electric Roadways will be even less than "Battery" system, and prices just collapse further.

This is NOT some "Future Tech" stuff -- it is happening now. My question is about the effects on the Ethanol Corn Industry.

Some pretty large areas of the US will have to be switched away from corn production as irrigation becomes impossible. Aquifers created during the last ice age are drying up. Those agricultural areas may be rescued by massive federal water projects, but it would be expensive, and urban congresscritters are generally not interested in agriculture.

There's a good export market for ethanol, though Brazil dominates that. They distill their ethanol from sugar cane, which is way cheaper than corn. We have import quotas on ethanol to protect our domestic industry. Free trade, y'know.

 

[Phil Timmons]

Some pretty large areas of the US will have to be switched away from corn production as irrigation becomes impossible. Aquifers created during the last ice age are drying up. Those agricultural areas may be rescued by massive federal water projects, but it would be expensive, and urban congresscritters are generally not interested in agriculture.

There's a good export market for ethanol, though Brazil dominates that. They distill their ethanol from sugar cane, which is way cheaper than corn. We have import quotas on ethanol to protect our domestic industry. Free trade, y'know.

Good future musings. Pondersome question? What do you think of (existing) Oil / Gas Pipelines becoming Fresh Water Pipelines?

My guess on the Ethanol -- it may become Aircraft or Shipping Fuel? again, just musing.

 

[Larry Caldwell]

As for the "true" engineers stuff . . . most of US Engineers under an ABET (that is the Industry Board for accreditation) College Program will have at least some of this -- it is part of Industrial Engineering, and called "Engineering Economics." Bunches (and bunches) of Spreadsheets. Cash Flows on various models -- like we were talking about above -- Some Growth, No Growth, Negative Growth. Really sharp organizations will do what are called Scenario Planning -- we plan for Best Case, Worst Case, and Changed Case.

For the Best Case, you try to be profitable, the Worse Case you try to survive, and Changed Case you try to flexible. Sound like your folks are trying to survive a Worst Case, so they are conservative, holding onto Cash, and keep things from losing money? Just trying to describe the typical business thinking behind the actions that you are describing.

But Michigan does NOT HAVE TO BE in that case. It is all driven by mindsets, and how to turn the stumbling blocks into stepping stones -- (sorry for the typical pep-talk jargon).

When you are doing Scenario Planning -- you are NOT supposed to use just one case (Best, Worst, or Changed) and use it as the ONLY Case. In practice, you may have noticed that Texas always/only uses the Best Case -- for example, Oil at $100. Massive Growth, etc., etc., etc. It is why Texas is always going Boom and Bust. When the Worst Case hits (Oil at less than $0) or the BIG WINTER Storm -- Texas is standing flat foot fued. Again -- always only driven by the mindset.

Designing infrastructure for future needs is made tricky by changing technologies. Twenty years ago I was working for a city that dug up 3 miles of US highway through town to install all new water, sewer, gas, and electric lines through the town's largest commercial/industrial zone. I proposed an additional conduit for future fiber optic communication lines, and got a flat NO from the ignorant fossils at the top. This was really a nice project, designed to accommodate economic growth over the next 20-30 years, except the planners, civil engineers and economists had no concept of data as a critical resource. The administrators, of course, were ignorant obstructionists.

 

[PuffyC]

For a long time the added load due to growth was partially offset by more efficient appliances, lights, etc.

As has been mentioned, now we are talking about replacing one enegry source at the home with another adding a huge burden to the electrical infrastructure (on top of that added by population growth).

I just do not see it without new power plants, new transmission lines, etc. I have not heard much about new power plants.

View attachment 700837

These estimates make the common mistake of projecting forward while assuming we’ll still be under the exact same constraints of today. That’s not how the future works. By 2050 I have absolutely no doubt whatsoever that instead of me pulling 1500 kWh every month from the grid, I’ll be pulling zero, or more likely feeding some back. That’s not some pie in the sky pipe dream - many people are doing exactly that today. If you look at how the price of solar is dropping and how installations are growing, it’s not unreasonable to see a future where the grid will need less capacity, not more.

 

[Steppenwolfe]

I am seriously considering a 2022 Ford f150 Lightening truck next year to replace my wife's truck; I've read the hype and the ads, what are your guys opinions?

 

[Phil Timmons]

Designing infrastructure for future needs is made tricky by changing technologies. Twenty years ago I was working for a city that dug up 3 miles of US highway through town to install all new water, sewer, gas, and electric lines through the town's largest commercial/industrial zone. I proposed an additional conduit for future fiber optic communication lines, and got a flat NO from the ignorant fossils at the top. This was really a nice project, designed to accommodate economic growth over the next 20-30 years, except the planners, civil engineers and economists had no concept of data as a critical resource. The administrators, of course, were ignorant obstructionists.

oh yeah. Spare Conduit is always the cheapest, best buy that you can put into any system.

I sort of underplayed that Best, Worst, Changed Case stuff, because I come to close to the know-it-all-Engineer routine anyway . . . but when doing Scenario Planning -- which are NOT supposed to be used for prediction -- but of the 3 Scenarios -- Changed Case (where you need to stay flexible) is the MOST Common by far. Always assume there are going to be Changes, so you need flexibility, and you can do yourself and everyone who comes after some huge favors in advance.

 

[California]

As for the "true" engineers stuff . . . most of US Engineers under an ABET (that is the Industry Board for accreditation) College Program will have at least some of this -- it is part of Industrial Engineering, and called "Engineering Economics." Bunches (and bunches) of Spreadsheets. Cash Flows on various models --- Some Growth, No Growth, Negative Growth. Really sharp organizations will do what are called Scenario Planning -- we plan for Best Case, Worst Case, and Changed Case.

When you are doing Scenario Planning -- you are NOT supposed to use just one case (Best, Worst, or Changed) and use it as the ONLY Case. In practice, you may have noticed that Texas always/only uses the Best Case -- ... It is why Texas is always going Boom and Bust. When the Worst Case hits (Oil at less than $0) or the BIG WINTER Storm -- Texas is standing flat foot footed. Again -- always only driven by the mindset.

Yeah, and it's Mindset to blame wind turbines (that weren't winterized like everywhere else) when they are a tiny percentage of energy production. And Mindset that wouldn't allow him to say the failure of natural gas production (again, due to no winterization) was what caused all the misery for those days.

Remember the near-catastrophe we had in NorCal when Oroville Dam spillway washed out? The dam (tallest dam in the US, and all built with earth fill) is owned and managed by SoCal water interests, for water they can sell to Los Angeles and for San Joaquin Valley corporate agribusiness. There's constant conflict between the NorCal locals who need flood protection downstream from that 770 ft tall dam, and the water owners who only want Best Case maximum water production with little money spent on preventive maintenance. Spend money on Scenario Studies, plan for the best interests of all the affected parties? What is this? Socialism?

 

[California]

... I come to close to the know-it-all-Engineer routine anyway . . . but when doing Scenario Planning -- which are NOT supposed to be used for prediction -- but of the 3 Scenarios -- Changed Case (where you need to stay flexible) is the MOST Common by far. Always assume there are going to be Changes, so you need flexibility, and you can do yourself and everyone who comes after some huge favors in advance.

A couple of themes I learned in earning my MBA are hugely important. One is, anticipate change and get out in front of it to profit from it, in contrast to getting run over by what wasn't anticipated because you never thought of it.

"Always assume there are going to be Changes". Yep. Recognizing that you exist in a fluid, not static, environment, is essential.

 

[sd455dan]

A couple of themes I learned in earning my MBA are hugely important. One is, anticipate change and get out in front of it to profit from it, in contrast to getting run over by what wasn't anticipated because you never thought of it.

"Always assume there are going to be Changes". Yep. Recognizing that you exist in a fluid, not static, environment, is essential.

The Only Constant is Change, Heraclitus

ps. looks like the EV rebates "may" be coming back for manufacturers who have already built the total of allotted EV's

U.S. Senate panel advances EV tax credit of up to $12,500

The U.S. Senate Finance Committee advanced legislation on Wednesday that would boost electric vehicle tax credits to as much as $12,500 for EVs that are assembled by union workers in the United States. The bill would limit tax credits to vehicles with a retail price below $80,000 to qualify for...

finance.yahoo.com

 

[txdon]

I am seriously considering a 2022 Ford f150 Lightening truck next year to replace my wife's truck; I've read the hype and the ads, what are your guys opinions?

Get your name on the list so you can get the proposed $12,500 rebate incentives before they run out.

 

[5030]

Hogs do not do well on brewer's grains,

Cattle do. Before the local e-plant closed up 4 years ago, I was feeding DDG regularly. Really puts on the market weight.

 

[California]

The Only Constant is Change, Heraclitus

ps. looks like the EV rebates "may" be coming back for manufacturers who have already built the total of allotted EV's

... If built in a union shop. Too bad Musk has been ranting against unions.

I've been fascinated by the Tesla Model Y. I'm waiting for it to get beyond the random assembly quality that Consumer Union says disqualified it from a recommended rating. However - just this week Tesla announced models 3 and Y will no longer have the radar sensors that can see through rain, and see the second car ahead. Just camera sensors that a reviewer said are useless in rain. Not even the cruise control was usable. That's not as attractive.

 

[ning]

I am seriously considering a 2022 Ford f150 Lightening truck next year to replace my wife's truck; I've read the hype and the ads, what are your guys opinions?

Looks like a strong offering to me - especially if the "shorter/medium range"/230mi version is substantially cheaper than the long range: I don't know that we have much of a use for that extra range, and if I can get a reasonably optioned (ie, not super lux) truck that can go 200mi that may just be sufficient for us.

The extended range with it's extra acceleration (the standard one is faster than you really need as it is, and I've got a motorcycle if I feel the need) probably has a lot of standard fancy stuff, and even if it doesn't, it's a fair chunk of change on top of the shorter range. I'm not convinced of being able to drive 560 miles in one day in an electric vehicle for the time being (distance from home to a city we drive to once or twice a year because of reasons), since a "300 mile" range vehicle will likely need 2 recharges to get you there (my wife demands the fuel tank not drop below 25% now, so that 300mi becomes a stop around 225mi and 450mi, +/- depending on availability of chargers) and two 45+ minute charges adds a lot onto that trip that's already a stretch for us in one day. The "230 mile" range would require a stop at 170, 340, and maybe 510 with the same 75% requirement, though it could probably be more reasonably stretched to also only need two stops for that trip, which means that its reduced range wouldn't be seen in our use case.

If you do more than a small amount of towing (eg go to the dump, short-distance camping) these should be fine. Longer towing hits them like it does a gas truck, except that this truck takes a lot longer to refuel. We don't do much trailering any more, so this doesn't matter in our equation.

Regardless, I won't be getting rid of my '97 F350 4x4 CC LB, though it may get even less use if we get this truck!