Corona Virus #6

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   / Corona Virus #6 #794  
Interesting article with some predictions on Zerohedge this morning ( Page not found | Zero Hedge ).

Article says 23-24 day lag between infection and resolution of infection, either by getting well or death. They estimate the death rate at 0.8% of cases....or one dead per 125 cases.

They also say deaths are doubling every 3 days.....which another site I found seems to closely confirm ( United States Coronavirus Deaths | March 2;) Data ) this in this chart.

united-states-coronavirus-deaths.png


IF the death rate really is 0.8%, working that 125 infected rate against today's deaths ( 616 ) gives an estimated number of infections out there at 77,000.

ZH article goes on to predict 800 US deaths on March 26th and 12,800 on April 7th with 1.6 million infected.

Unless this thing peaks pretty soon, the numbers by the end of April would be plumb unbelievable. You can see why the hospitals are running scared.

I know I'll be following the data for the next few weeks.
 
   / Corona Virus #6 #795  
Interesting article with some predictions on Zerohedge this morning ( Page not found | Zero Hedge ).

Article says 23-24 day lag between infection and resolution of infection, either by getting well or death. They estimate the death rate at 0.8% of cases....or one dead per 125 cases.

They also say deaths are doubling every 3 days.....which another site I found seems to closely confirm ( United States Coronavirus Deaths | March 22 Data ) this in this chart.

united-states-coronavirus-deaths.png


IF the death rate really is 0.8%, working that 125 infected rate against today's deaths ( 616 ) gives an estimated number of infections out there at 77,000.

ZH article goes on to predict 800 US deaths on March 26th and 12,800 on April 7th with 1.6 million infected.

Unless this thing peaks pretty soon, the numbers by the end of April would be plumb unbelievable. You can see why the hospitals are running scared.

I know I'll be following the data for the next few weeks.
That's the scary thing.

Italy has been in total lockdown for 2 weeks. That seems to be about how long it takes to peak, although today's numbers out of Italy don't look good. It still may not have peaked there.

The US has still not come to grips with instituting a lock down. It's only 2 weeks AFTER we do that we are likely to see the peak.
 
   / Corona Virus #6 #797  
COVID-19: How Aviation is Fighting for Survival - YouTube
worrisome times for the world's airlines
all these people out of work, I'm waiting for headlines on that
Instead of oxygen masks coming out of the ceiling, maybe they need optional
full head protection with piped in air.

Since it's likely we will have more of these viruses show up, airlines need to rethink how they cram people in there.
Lot of folks affected within that six foot radius.

I read a while back that one of the contributing factors towards unhealthy air in planes is that the more outside super cold air they use to flush through the cabin,
the more fuel they have to burn to keep the cabin warm. Very cold way up there. So, pass less air through, save money. And the nasties stick around longer.
So there may be an immediate fix that may improve safety in the future if they crank up the cfm of fresh air coming in.
 
   / Corona Virus #6 #798  
Give me Liberty or give me Death.

This nation was founded on freedom.

yes but it's also always desirable to be Free and smart too...
And a good citizen, who doesn't always put himself first.
Sometimes we have to suck it up for the common good.
 
   / Corona Virus #6 #799  
Give me Liberty or give me Death.

This nation was founded on freedom.

Please . . . let's all be safe. You obviously were not in the military . . .
 
   / Corona Virus #6 #800  
Yes, people can catch COVID much faster that they recover and that is why the hospitals are overwhelmed.
Also keep in mind that only includes people who were symptomatic enough to be tested in the first place. Without wide scale testing, this data is skewed.
 
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