Corona Virus #6

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   / Corona Virus #6 #771  

I want to re-emphasize the importance of this paper. Its a long read but it summarizes all of the most thorough research, and in my opinion has the most thoughtful forecasts of what lies ahead considering various strategies.

As I understand it, the likely most effective strategy is massive testing, 100% contact-tracing, and severe quarantine of everybody likely to be a vector.

This strategy, applied in Asia, has allowed persons not at high risk - the majority of the population - to resume normal life. The result is a huge decline in new cases and far less misery for the population in general.
 
   / Corona Virus #6 #772  
If the Germans are doing more testing, that may cause the difference. I find it difficult to believe the Germans are any more resistant to have better health care professionals/systems.

Testing is done on people with symptoms, neither randomly or throughout a group without cause to suspect. :eek:

Sonja delivered groceries to us today. ..

It appears your snows have subsided weeks ago, but that you have a bit left to melt off. :)

Just hop on the short bus...it's the only way in...

So it's not exactly like professional wrestling? ("A full-contact action-adventure soap opera." Vince McMahon ;))
 
   / Corona Virus #6 #773  
I wonder if we are going to cut and run on this war too? If we don't fight this war it looks to me as if it will follow us home and kick our butts. Could be that is the kind of people we are. Not the greatest generation.

Chris
 
   / Corona Virus #6 #775  
I read your much ballyhooed The Hammer and the Dance.
What a pessimist every thing he has done is the absolute worst case multiplied by the worst possible.
It is a long way from being any where close to a reputable source.
 
   / Corona Virus #6 #776  
How long before we should start waving a carbon arc torch at outside stuff entering quarantine?

Was it yesterday that I saw an ad on here for a hand held UV light? Just don't shine it in your eyes.

Chris
Yeah. Strong enuf to work quickly will require eye protection - skin too at the level of UV from a carbon arc.
 
   / Corona Virus #6 #777  
You need to read the whole story, and determine what is missing.

Let's look at the part that article's writer (William Feuer) so conveniently left out or was unable to comprehend.

Here is all the original CDC report actually said about the surfaces:

"SARS-CoV-2 RNA was identified on a variety of surfaces in cabins of both symptomatic and asymptomatic infected passengers up to 17 days after cabins were vacated on the Diamond Princess but before disinfection procedures had been conducted (Takuya Yamagishi, National Institute of Infectious Diseases, personal communication, 2020). Although these data cannot be used to determine whether transmission occurred from contaminated surfaces, further study of fomite transmission of SARS-CoV-2 aboard cruise ships is warranted."

From a doctor, Dr. Tara C. Smith Professor, infectious disease epidemiologist :

I've also seen this misrepresented already. "SARS-CoV-2 RNA was identified on a variety of surfaces in cabins of both symptomatic & asymptomatic infected passengers up to 17 days after cabins were vacated on the DP but before disinfection procedures had been conducted. Viral RNA doesn't necessarily mean live virus was present. Now, you're going to see "coronavirus can live on surfaces for 17 days! posted over and over, but we don't know that based on this study and for those using live virus, it's much shorter."
]

From another epidemiologist:

Again, there is a big difference between detecting traces of a virus after 17 days and finding it remains transmissible after 17 days, and the cramped, indoors quarantine conditions on the Diamond Princess likely contributed the detection of viral traces.


In other words, there is zero evidence from any reliable source that the virus can live longer than 3 days on a hard surface and only a few hours in air, which we've all been aware of since mid January. The primary means of transmission is and always has been person to person or close contact with someone already infected.

Okay, appreciate the clarification. :thumbsup: There is so much misinformation on the Internet, it's hard to separate the wheat from the chaff. :confused2:
 
   / Corona Virus #6 #778  
   / Corona Virus #6 #779  
Ontario Government posts list of essential services. It would have been easier to post a short list of non-essential services. Maybe hospitaility, recreation, entertainment and much retail (clothing and the like).

Packaging has me baffled. Everyone touches all this food packaging. You are carefull and take precautions in your shopping, wash your hands the second you get home. Then sit on the couch clutching your bag of chips.
 
   / Corona Virus #6 #780  
US death rate continues to fall Now 1.20

Reason? More testing is showing more and more people infected.
 
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