Corona Virus #6

[ruffdog]

Grandparents willing to sacrifice their lives for the economy? Wha.....?

COVID-19: Texas official suggests elderly willing to die for economy

 

[sd455dan]

Some encouraging News This blood test can tell us how widespread coronavirus really is . We then will have a better picture overall

Once that happens people who have cleared the Virus will be able to go out again, Health Care workers will not need PPE as far as direct dealing with the infected.

Although decontamination after a shift will be needed.

This blood test can tell us how widespread coronavirus really is - MIT Technology Review

Of course need to scale it up and then wide availability will take time.

 

[Gale Hawkins]

I saw some reports about drugs that may help once infected. A lot of caution by some experts and scientists.

I read that vitamin D may be helpful and it probably wouldn't hurt you but I am definitely not a doctor.
My wife is taking a blood pressure med that may be helpful I am taking one that may be unhelpful. WHO KNOWS...

Chris

Former CDC Chief Dr. Tom Frieden: Coronavirus infection risk may be reduced by Vitamin D | Fox News

This story is from yesterday about the general value of using Vitamin D3 in human health. Dr. Tom Frieden is former director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and former commissioner of the New York City Health Department.

 

[pennwalk]

Some encouraging News This blood test can tell us how widespread coronavirus really is . We then will have a better picture overall

Once that happens people who have cleared the Virus will be able to go out again, Health Care workers will not need PPE as far as direct dealing with the infected.

Although decontamination after a shift will be needed.

This blood test can tell us how widespread coronavirus really is - MIT Technology Review

Of course need to scale it up and then wide availability will take time.

That assumes that there are not mutated strains out there that can reinfect people.

Chris

 

[Gale Hawkins]

That assumes that there are not mutated strains out there that can reinfect people.

Chris

Good point. It seems like many fail to understand we still do not know Jack about this virus that was not known until a few months ago. We are at the point where mass testing really makes no difference and would only hamper the limited health care that is needed in the cases of those that need hospital care. One can go to be tested that is not infected only to become infected because they left their home. They will return home with a negative result to come another spreader of the corona virus leading to the risk of more deaths.

The answers we are looking for will come but it may be months or years from 24 March 2020.

 

[Molalla1]

talked with my sister in California. Neither she nor her husband have left their home in ten days.
She has a local organic food coop that delivers, her drug store delivers, and they use the internet.
By now I think they are getting a little buggy staying cooped up.

She told me they let all cardboard packages sit for 24 hours before they pick them up, and the food people leave the food outside.
I haven't done that for all my UPS/Amazon stuff, but I guess I should.

Saw my barber in food store. He said he was going to close down if the haircuts got down to one or two a day, not worth him going in.
IMHO he ought to pack it in for a couple weeks anyway, he's a senior and close to retiring so it wouldn't be a big thing for him.
So far, no one in this county has tested positive, but since they have no test kits here yet, what does that tell me? Maybe not much...

My barber is 79 and his employee is 83! They are still working but have a sign out saying if you have anything to go home.

 

[daugen]

My barber is 79 and his employee is 83! They are still working but have a sign out saying if you have anything to go home.

that sign is unfortunately wishful thinking...we have read time and again where folks can carry this around for awhile before symptoms show up. So the guy/carrier before me at the barber shop sneezes or leaves finger prints all over the chair arms, and I'm next. Anyone in constant contact with the general public is probably the last person I want to see right now. Unless he's wearing a mask and wipes down his equipment like the dentists do. Supermarket checkout staff are a problem, easy to get within 3 feet of them.

 

[Molalla1]

that sign is unfortunately wishful thinking...we have read time and again where folks can carry this around for awhile before symptoms show up. So the guy/carrier before me at the barber shop sneezes or leaves finger prints all over the chair arms, and I'm next. Anyone in constant contact with the general public is probably the last person I want to see right now. Unless he's wearing a mask and wipes down his equipment like the dentists do. Supermarket checkout staff are a problem, easy to get within 3 feet of them.

I know daugen . . . my wife has been cutting my hair . . .

 

[IslandTractor]

US death rate continues to fall Now 1.20

Reason? More testing is showing more and more people infected.

Kinda early in the outbreak to be estimating death rates. Problem is that you can easily count deaths that occurred yesterday but the denominator should be the number of new infections about a week or two ago, not yesterday. As NYC infection numbers have been doubling every three days or so that means we have to estimate what the number of infections were in the past. If you assume 7-10 days (average time to death from presentation at hospital) you still are missing the earlier asymptomatic part of the infection. Counting the denominator cases from onset of infection until death may actually be 14 days based on a Chinese study. That means to calculate death rate on March 24, you'd need to estimate the number of new cases about March 10th. There were only 290 new cases in the US on March 10 (but that was before adequate testing so probably ten times that number). Deaths on March 23 were 120. 120/2900= 4% Complex business to estimate mortality rates during an epidemic and it isn't just an issue for coronavirus.

Interesting discussion of this problem here: Coronavirus Mortality Rate (COVID-19) - Worldometer Look at the discussion at the bottom of that webpage.

 

[sd455dan]

That assumes that there are not mutated strains out there that can reinfect people.

Chris

Well have to start somewhere, and there already are 2 strains... and Yes I think they have soft pedaled the likelihood of another strain emerging and coming back around the Globe like what happened with the Spanish Flu.

 

[Diggin It]

You need to read the whole story, and determine what is missing.

Don't try to confuse the panic stricken with the truth.

 

[Diggin It]

Even false hope is better than no hope.

Like the guy in Arizona that drank fish medicine? He died.

 

[Diggin It]

This story is from yesterday about the general value of using Vitamin D3 in human health.

They claim it even makes you happy(er) in winter when you don't get as much Sun.

 

[TnAndy]

Interesting article with some predictions on Zerohedge this morning ( Page not found | Zero Hedge ).

Article says 23-24 day lag between infection and resolution of infection, either by getting well or death. They estimate the death rate at 0.8% of cases....or one dead per 125 cases.

They also say deaths are doubling every 3 days.....which another site I found seems to closely confirm ( United States Coronavirus Deaths | March 2 Data ) this in this chart.

IF the death rate really is 0.8%, working that 125 infected rate against today's deaths ( 616 ) gives an estimated number of infections out there at 77,000.

ZH article goes on to predict 800 US deaths on March 26th and 12,800 on April 7th with 1.6 million infected.

Unless this thing peaks pretty soon, the numbers by the end of April would be plumb unbelievable. You can see why the hospitals are running scared.

I know I'll be following the data for the next few weeks.

 

[RSR]

Interesting article with some predictions on Zerohedge this morning ( Page not found | Zero Hedge ).

Article says 23-24 day lag between infection and resolution of infection, either by getting well or death. They estimate the death rate at 0.8% of cases....or one dead per 125 cases.

They also say deaths are doubling every 3 days.....which another site I found seems to closely confirm ( United States Coronavirus Deaths | March 22 Data ) this in this chart.

IF the death rate really is 0.8%, working that 125 infected rate against today's deaths ( 616 ) gives an estimated number of infections out there at 77,000.

ZH article goes on to predict 800 US deaths on March 26th and 12,800 on April 7th with 1.6 million infected.

Unless this thing peaks pretty soon, the numbers by the end of April would be plumb unbelievable. You can see why the hospitals are running scared.

I know I'll be following the data for the next few weeks.

That's the scary thing.

Italy has been in total lockdown for 2 weeks. That seems to be about how long it takes to peak, although today's numbers out of Italy don't look good. It still may not have peaked there.

The US has still not come to grips with instituting a lock down. It's only 2 weeks AFTER we do that we are likely to see the peak.

 

[Diggin It]

The US has still not come to grips with instituting a lock down.

Give me Liberty or give me Death.

This nation was founded on freedom.

 

[daugen]

COVID-19: How Aviation is Fighting for Survival - YouTube
worrisome times for the world's airlines
all these people out of work, I'm waiting for headlines on that
Instead of oxygen masks coming out of the ceiling, maybe they need optional
full head protection with piped in air.

Since it's likely we will have more of these viruses show up, airlines need to rethink how they cram people in there.
Lot of folks affected within that six foot radius.

I read a while back that one of the contributing factors towards unhealthy air in planes is that the more outside super cold air they use to flush through the cabin,
the more fuel they have to burn to keep the cabin warm. Very cold way up there. So, pass less air through, save money. And the nasties stick around longer.
So there may be an immediate fix that may improve safety in the future if they crank up the cfm of fresh air coming in.

 

[daugen]

Give me Liberty or give me Death.

This nation was founded on freedom.

yes but it's also always desirable to be Free and smart too...
And a good citizen, who doesn't always put himself first.
Sometimes we have to suck it up for the common good.

 

[Molalla1]

Give me Liberty or give me Death.

This nation was founded on freedom.

Please . . . let's all be safe. You obviously were not in the military . . .

 

[wheelbuilder]

Yes, people can catch COVID much faster that they recover and that is why the hospitals are overwhelmed.

Also keep in mind that only includes people who were symptomatic enough to be tested in the first place. Without wide scale testing, this data is skewed.