Investing for beginners

[MinnesotaEric]

I'm an IT guy, consider myself decently smart. I read Eric's post up there and it sure sounds like he knows what he's doing, but may as well be written in French lol. This stuff makes my head spin. Wish I understood it better, especially how to take advantage of a declining market. Buying stock and holding onto it when things are good is easy.

Investopia has all the definitions of terms and a lot more.

 

[MinnesotaEric]

Yup, all greek to me too. Ok, I've a question for you know-how guys. Let's say somebody vested 50/50 stocks/bonds in a managed 401k. Wise move right at this moment to rebalance the portfolio to 80/20 stocks favored, and start aggressively contributing to that?

For the most-part managers have fled to cash and are patiently waiting for the obvious recovery to come rather than risking catching a knife (buying and then things go lower) and getting bull-trapped (fear of selling at a loss and reinvesting on something that is making money). When markets like this start acting "normal" (as in historically normal in our context) both equities and bonds will lose money until at some -point bonds will start acting differently than equities. In a high-interest world, bonds go down and equities go up, but that isn't what we're experiencing or likely to experience for some time. All this to say, cash IS a position and I suggest waiting it out until you have a really good idea what the market will broadly do.

 

[/pine]

Stock tip of the week...
Just a watch notice...maybe set some limit buy orders for the mid 160's...

The Clorox Company (CLX)

 

[MinnesotaEric]

I cooked through one half of my cash purchasing on Wednesday. The kind of stuff I purchased went up on aggregate--i.e., #talkingmybook ARR-PRC, ARR, AGNC, piles of MITT (it went to 1/8th its former value), NLY, some more RAD (short squeeze can happen there in light of an on-going recovery made suddenly more interesting by the sudden drop in lending costs), and reestablishing a position that got shopped out, BABA (because China and my own fear of missing out). I don't particularly think I'll experience more capital gains on those purchases in a choppy news risk cycle through the end of summer, at which time I believe we will have a much better handle on the virus issue and our attention will be mostly on economic recovery from what already feels like an immediate ice age recession. I do, however, expect stupidly high dividends to remain until the mREITs common I purchased offers secondaries to better reposition itself with low-interest rates through higher leverage (mREITs take the interest rates from short or long term notes and leverage that against long or short term notes in whatever way makes the most sense), while I anticipate holding the preferreds I purchased until they are called while collecting a 21% dividend on them with a 300% upside when they are called.

I don't watch Cramer handly at all but I noted that on Thursday he too thought an unknown fund was blowing up on Wednesday. Even so, we've got a lot of price discovery to go through a bad news cycle but if we're ever fearful of deploying our cash in the face of irrationally low valuations, then there is little point in hoarding it.

And today the money I risked a week ago last Wednesday doubled in value. Now the goal is to reset stop losses and live through this mess (as I wish all of you will as well) long enough to be able to spend it all.

I set 6% trailing stops on the ARR-PRC and ARR common and 10% trailing stops on everything else. If the market turns, I pop out with capital gains tax to be sure, but also at a profit and with a bag of cash to reinvest when the time seems right.

 

[Racenut]

To double money at a time like this is impressive. Again, I wish I understood it so much better. I need to start hanging out with financial nerds instead of regular nerds.

 

[MinnesotaEric]

To double money at a time like this is impressive. Again, I wish I understood it so much better. I need to start hanging out with financial nerds instead of regular nerds.

Ever lost a quarter million in three minutes? I have: right after the failed TARP 1 vote. I'm still trying to vote those non-serious clowns out of office. LOL

All to say that in the past I've lost big, and many times against the unforeseen. Most of the time I'm just risk managing my money, but every once in a great while Mr Market just wants to sell out at ridiculously low prices. In this case I now know after the fact that several REITs (including MITT that I was buying with both hands, eek!!!) had received margin calls and was selling their family jewels at stupid low prices. The low valuations ticked off a pile of credit default swaps and this led to all of the Federal Reserve Action that has taken place over the last two weeks because if one of these funds blows up and goes under, it effects the entire sector as well as our banking system.

So I got lucky and if the market turns against me, I'll bounce out again with a bag of cash.

 

[Racenut]

Yeah, I can't say I've lost a quarter million in 3 minutes.. that had to hurt a lil. And yeah, I know nobody is always right. But if you're usually right... then you win. While I'm over here going.. Uhhh, what was the question again?

 

[/pine]

Stock tip of the week...
Just a watch notice...maybe set some limit buy orders for the mid 160's...

The Clorox Company (CLX)

Cha Ching...!

 

[California]

I wonder if replacement car batteries will be another winner after the lockdown ends.

 

[/pine]

Watch for insurance companies to post better than usual bottom lines the next two or three quarters...FWIW...

 

[KennyG]

Watch for insurance companies to post better than usual bottom lines the next two or three quarters...FWIW...

Actually, look for rates to come down. Since I'm with State Farm, which is a mutual company, I'm expecting to get a dividend check.

 

[/pine]

IMO...Without a unified jump-start to getting back to work etc...the markets will be more volatile than has ever been experienced including what we saw when the SHTF...

Be careful...it's a jungle out there...

 

[BoylermanCT]

Actually, look for rates to come down. Since I'm with State Farm, which is a mutual company, I'm expecting to get a dividend check.

My insurance company is refunding me 15% of my car premium this year. Over $250M to all their customers.

 

[MinnesotaEric]

My insurance company is refunding me 15% of my car premium this year. Over $250M to all their customers.

USAA is giving members a couple of months free insurance. I don't think they have the money on hand for a refund.

Meanwhile, right or wrong, I dumped half my investment assets and fled to cash today after hearing that 2 million mortgage lates have happened in the last two weeks. It took over a year during the Great Recession for that to happen. An article in the LA times thinks up to 15 million mortgage defaults can take place and those guys are mere speculators in the financial news. Trouble is that after 120 days of forbearance, Frank-Dodd requires foreclosure proceedings to begin and non-performing assets do not help leveraged bank balance sheets. The Fed has already relaxed bank leverage requirements, but GovCo sponsored enterprises like Fannie and Freddy are literally still dealing with the fallout from the Great Recession.

In the context of a political situation where we can only do one thing at a time, and that thing for now is to try and oust our executive branch from office which means politicalizing every blessed thing the executive branch does, I have little confidence that Congress will bring timely legislature to bear before things really hit the fan. For those reasons, I'm going to sit on the sidelines hoping I don't see a train wreck in slow motion coming down upon the USA. Investment wise, with the mass media and one one-particular voting block fighting against flipping our economy back on, what I mean is that I suddenly believe there are economic pains coming that are unrelated to COVID19 that can still shock our markets down as we saw last month in March, 2020.

Meanwhile, my little real estate brokerage is fairly busy considering nobody is moving around. I had planned to expand my operation this year but my COVID19 hassle is that I cannot get new agents because all the license testing has been shut down since the first week of March.

If I'm wrong by pulling assets out of the market, all I miss out on is opportunity.

 

[California]

I dumped half my investment assets and fled to cash today...

In the context of a political situation where we can only do one thing, that thing for now is to try and oust our executive branch from office which means politicizing every thing the executive branch does

I have little confidence that Congress will bring timely legislature to bear before things really hit the fan. I'm going to sit on the sidelines hoping I don't see a train wreck in slow motion ... I suddenly believe there are economic pains coming that are unrelated to COVID19 that can still shock our markets down

Here's a start.

---
r/PublicFreakout
CBSNews reporter Paula Reid presses Trump on a month long gap in his administrations response to Coronavirus.

What did you do in February?
There were no cases in January!

What did you do in February?
The press is terrible!

What did you do in February?
What about Joe Biden?

What did you do in February?
A lot. A lot! And in fact, we’ll give you a list. We did a lot. Look, you know you’re a fake. You know that. Your whole network, the way you cover it is fake. And most of you—not all of you—but the people are wise to you. That’s why you have a lower approval rating then you’ve ever had before times, probably, three. And when you ask me that question—let me ask you this. Why did Biden apologize? Why did he write a letter of apology? That’s very important. Why did the Democrats think I acted too quickly? You know why? Because they really thought that I acted too quickly. We have done a great job.

Now, I could have kept it open, and I could have done what some countries are doing. They’re getting beat up pretty badly. I could have kept it open. I thought of keeping it open because no one’s ever heard of closing down a country, let alone the United States of America. But if I would have done that, we would have had hundreds of thousands of people that would right now be dead. We’ve done this right, and we really have done this right. The problem is, the press doesn’t cover it the way it should be.

What did you do in February?
You're a fake!!! Next question!!!

Think that's an exaggeration? See for yourself!

CBSNews reporter Paula Reid presses Trump on a month long gap in his administrations response to Coronavirus. : PublicFreakout

 

[MinnesotaEric]

Here's a start.

I have no intention of turning this into a political discussion. Moreover, focusing on political intrigues proofs my investment thesis that the legislative branch will not even see the economic problem coming until the problem and the pain that comes with it has already been manifested.

 

[KennyG]

These are very uncertain times, but I'm not getting too excited about the late mortgage payments. The government put the word out that mortgage and rent payments may be suspended for some time and I think a lot of people just decided to take advantage of that potential. It's confusing and I think a lot of people believe they are getting a pass on payments.

 

[two_bit_score]

Here's a start. l]

No, don’t start, unless you do it in your own political thread.

 

[California]

No, don稚 start, unless you do it in your own political thread.

I just don't know how to say it without sounding political. I think the economic future will be strongly affected by the gap between what the specialists in health care and the specialists concerned about the economy, are proposing we should do next. The contrast between those goals needs to be discussed or we're all in the dark. Concerning this thread, discussed for the impact on investment strategy. If there's a way to discuss this without sounding political lets take that path.

 

[Industrial Toys]

If so many people weren't deep in consumer debt, this crisis wouldn't be that serious.