Not Enough Babies?

[dstig1]

Well it is a projection and that means they look at past behavior and try to extrapolate it forward. Like every Wall St. ad says "past performance is no guarantee of future performance"... That said, I think they looked at EXACTLY what you are saying. More and more of the world is developed. What was 3rd world 40 yrs ago is 2nd or first now. So the projection would include the changes in behavior regarding birthrates expected as those places like India develop and advance.

So is it correct? Dunno. We'll find out in 50 yrs... But they tried to predict what will happen based on historical data. Not much else one can do... Your graph stops at 2000. A lot has changed already this century and one thing I had read on this was how surprised the researchers were in how quickly birthrates had slowed down in many places in recent years. COVID had a significant impact on births too with a sudden step change from that.

 

[dstig1]

This got me going down the rabbit hole...

One projection source with charts you can mess with a bit:

The UN has made population projections for more than 50 years – how accurate have they been?

Most UN projections of global population have been close to the final estimates, several decades into the future.

ourworldindata.org

Another one that is very flexible to play with

Population Growth

Explore global and country data on population growth, demography, and how this is changing.

ourworldindata.org

 

[newbury]

To me when I was growing up the problem with the booming population was that basically I don't like to deal with people if I don't have to. I'm just "asocial" (lack of motivation to engage in social interaction, or a preference for solitary activities. ). I like people, in SMALL numbers.

I grew up (from 1st grade on) in rural Vermont. From about 1964 to 1973 my home was 1 mile up a dirt road with no neighbors. Loved it. Firing range off the front porch, acre trout fishing pond within about 20 yards of the walkout basement. But the constant doubling of the population was using up the vacant land that I loved.

Now there are about 10 houses on that same mile of road.

During early COVID until late 2022 my wife and I were "stuck" down in Northeast Mississippi on our 70+ acres and I enjoyed the isolation. We basically just "associated" with about a dozen or less "close" family, the mailman, the Walmart "grocery pickup" crew and a few delivery drivers for 2 years.
We are and were both retired. I had my "projects" and my wife would spend half the week caring for her 95 to 97 year old mother in town. I'd drive her the 15 miles to and from town twice a week.
But now that I'm getting older and we ALMOST own a square mile of the earths surface I'm not to concerned about the population boom or bust. We've got ours.

Good luck to y'all.

 

[MH8675309]

It goes back to "they say". They say allotta things and if you live long enough youll see them flip flop on some things

 

[deserteagle71]

It goes back to "they say". They say allotta things and if you live long enough youll see them flip flop on some things

Exactly. "They say" is mostly hot air. I remember back in the 70s when we had a few cool weather years and "they say" were telling us all about the coming new ice age.

After a couple weeks of 100+ degree temperatures I'm sure wishing "they say" had been correct!

 

[dstig1]

Oh yeah. It is a projection which always means a guess to some degree. But there are pieces of this already known. The correlation between higher developed countries and lower birth rates is quite solid. The ASSUMPTION is that this correlation will hold true as other currently less developed countries tread the same path. It seems pretty solid so far, but only time will tell...