New Tractor Sales Are Declining

[MinnesotaEric]

Some useful public data on 1100 OPE dealers is published by Constellation here: OPE Market Data - Constellation Dealership Software

This data shows sales flat with 2022, which I think indicates a good start to the year in light of when the down months happened in 2022. Keep an eye on this data for the next few months to see if we're going to be up or down this year.

Meanwhile, manufacturing is slowing globally, largely because the global population is continuing to age and young families drive demand, Germany is in recession, increased Saber-rattling between Major-Powers is disturbing, Europe's stupid energy policy is crippling a recovery, China still needs to import food and energy, but its labor now costs three times as much as Mexican labor, our largest trading partner, we are heading into recession, and I think we'll eventually see the Dow dip below 20K after a fight at support for the lows in March 2021.

Oh, and new real estate mortgages are at 28-year lows, our investment class is not buying real estate and the shiller index is down over 20% from their highs in some parts of our county.

The bright news is I'm still pricing $350K and under homes like it is July 2022 because of demand and thanks to Mexico and our Gen Xers having some children, we get a bye and get to watch the rest of the world suffer more than ourselves.

 

[CloverKnollFarms]

I’m just waiting to see how many more banks fail…

 

[TN8Man]

Meanwhile, manufacturing is slowing globally, largely because the global population is continuing to age and young families drive demand, Germany is in recession, increased Saber-rattling between Major-Powers is disturbing, Europe's stupid energy policy is crippling a recovery, China still needs to import food and energy, but its labor now costs three times as much as Mexican labor, our largest trading partner, we are heading into recession, and I think we'll eventually see the Dow dip below 20K after a fight at support for the lows in March 2021.

Oh, and new real estate mortgages are at 28-year lows, our investment class is not buying real estate and the shiller index is down over 20% from their highs in some parts of our county.

The bright news is I'm still pricing $350K and under homes like it is July 2022 because of demand and thanks to Mexico and our Gen Xers having some children, we get a bye and get to watch the rest of the world suffer more than ourselves.

Don't forget the global move to exit the petrodollar system with the formation of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa).

 

[TN8Man]

I’m just waiting to see how many more banks fail…

Its starting to look like just the beginning.

 

[bridge4]

0% on Kubota and Bobcat, I'm sure others. That's a great indicator imo. If sales were like they were two years ago we'd be seeing more 3-5%. Offering 0% when bank rates are 4 and moving...

I hope they are still going this summer, might finally grab a mini-ex or skid steer.

 

[Yander]

It might be 0% interest but from what I'm seeing on their websites for equipment costs they're making it up by charging more for equipment. I'm guessing it is a marketing ploy.

"Hey let's have 0% interest in an economy where the interest rates are going up but charge more for our tractors."

I'd be curious to see what a cash buyer can get one of those tractors for that are overpriced.

 

[Hay Dude]

Kubota has 5.75% on used Kubota tractors.
There’s an M7-151 I can get locally, but the asking price, even with the reasonable used equipment financing is just too much.
Between rising equipment prices and high interest rates, I’m slowly being priced out of the market.

 

[bridge4]

It might be 0% interest but from what I'm seeing on their websites for equipment costs they're making it up by charging more for equipment. I'm guessing it is a marketing ploy.

"Hey let's have 0% interest in an economy where the interest rates are going up but charge more for our tractors."

I'd be curious to see what a cash buyer can get one of those tractors for that are overpriced.

It says 1600 or 0% financing on one of the ones I was looking at yesterday. Obviously they did the math and figured its the same to them as a company, but as a buyer it isn't. I agree though, things haven't gotten any cheaper in a real sense.

Kubota has 5.75% on used Kubota tractors.
There’s an M7-151 I can get locally, but the asking price, even with the reasonable used equipment financing is just too much.
Between rising equipment prices and high interest rates, I’m slowly being priced out of the market.

This might be why the sales are declining! Lots of saving money being spent these days on essentials.

 

[Hay Dude]

It says 1600 or 0% financing on one of the ones I was looking at yesterday. Obviously they did the math and figured its the same to them as a company, but as a buyer it isn't. I agree though, things haven't gotten any cheaper in a real sense.


This might be why the sales are declining! Lots of saving money being spent these days on essentials.

A used farm tractor that was $55,000 is now $75,000. The used sellers know new tractors are only affordable to BTO’s and the smaller-mid farmers are stuck with mostly used.

Don’t know how this all ends, but my guess is soon we will be buying all our food from maybe 5 companies, banking at 5 banks, medicine from 5 companies, etc.

No country for small business people!

 

[Yander]

Yeah it's not trending well at all.

I've seen people on this thread try to compare today's economy to that of interest rates and economy 25 - 30 years ago.

It's not the static (point in time) comparison that I'm concerned about it's the trend that we're in.