New Tractor Sales Are Declining

[Cahaba Valley Farm]

Your everyone doesn't include me. However, I started doing this in my 20's so, I have taken my lumps in the past when my account value was much smaller. And no, I don't play options or do the Wallstreetbets MEME stock thing either. I'm a classic stock picker and have done well during the COVID period in my 401K.

You have taken a loss as everyone else has. Maybe not as much as others but your equity holdings have lost some value.

 

[Sid Post]

You need to watch Messicks video comparing the compact Kubota to equivalent JD and MF. Kubota in the compact segment is not "lightly" built.

Yes, I watch most of the Messick YouTube videos. However, while they offer some solid tractors, I would say my L4600 is lightly built for what it is. It simply lacks steel in the rear end and is not well-balanced.

While an awesome tractor for the normal "ranchette" that is so trendy today, on my uneven property, it is really unbalanced and I have to exercise caution to not roll it. It has a CG that is too high for its narrow width and with something in the bucket, the rear end loses traction to the point I need ballast on the 3-pt if I am lifting anything heavy. I actually think the loader is too big for the tractor because it will lift more weight than it can safely travel with ON MY PROPERTY.

Running a 5' light duty rotary cutter or a good tiller is its sweet spot for me. A 6' cutter is so long, it tends to POGO the tractor even though it has the PTO power to run it without issue. I tried my 7' rotary cutter once and it was like pulling a hitch-mounted wheeled cutter due to the long lever arm of that tailwheel, even though it had the PTO Hp to run it.

Running a grain auger and things like that are where it really shines. That Wallenstein wood chipper is a beast on the back of my L4600, munching downed 4" limbs with ease!

 

[Cahaba Valley Farm]

My last two tractors were 100% cash at delivery. The dealer was sort of waffling with letting me take the last tractor home, assuming a check on late Saturday until I pulled out a tall stack of $100's to pay in full.

I'm getting ready to buy my next tractor without any financing as I type this out.

Farm property where I lived was around 21%~24% during the period house mortgages were 18%. Wheat was also $1.02/bushel.

I just bought some kitchen knives and offered the seller a USPS Money Order. He said no and insisted he wanted PayPal and wanted me to pay the PayPal fees. I said no. 4 days later he lowered his price and got no offers.

I will go to the USPS tomorrow with cash to get a Money Order which will get mailed Monday.

For those of you saying PayPal is safer, I have been burned by PayPal. And no, it was not about, for, or related to, firearms.

IndyJay, I think we have a Topper in the house

 

[Cahaba Valley Farm]

All you need to do to fix the Fed is get the Government out of it.

Fat chance of that happening.

 

[alexpops]

While it borders on Political commentary, Oligharcs of the world have way too much influence and do a lot to diminish the quality of life for many population groups. Doesn't matter if we are talking about China, Russia, or the "West".

Bill Gates has done a lot to help disadvantaged people overseas but, his personal views and spending, like George Soros, are also working against the quality of life for a lot of people too!

I am a big fan of free markets but, the Ultra-Wealthy are detached from reality in most cases, and the issues of the average person, leveraging their will to force them to live how they want them to. This started with Ford and the Model T so, nothing new. Ford and his Model T did a lot of good but, it also was used to force his personal views on American society and he was one of the original "big brothers!"

The answer to that is refuse their money & "assistance".

As I remember, in the early 60's the Kennedy Administration offered India the "Pill" in an attempt to ease poverty and raise living standards. Gandhi responded with a statement along the lines of "with so little joy available to the people in question, it would border on criminal behavior to deprive them of the sole joy and source of "wealth" in their lives ... children" and refused to accept the shipment. Everything is about choice.

 

[Cahaba Valley Farm]

The wife just passed last Monday

Willy I am very sorry to hear this. I send you my condolences.

 

[Sid Post]

You have taken a loss as everyone else has. Maybe not as much as others but your equity holdings have lost some value.

Actually, I'm up a lot more than the rate of inflation over my pre-COVID balance compared to today. I'm not bragging so percentages and dollar values are intentionally omitted but, I made more during the ~2 years of COVID than I did during the previous Presidental period with some stop losses on the end of his term. Contrarian investments to the current president worked out well for me and my 401K.

The Stock market has risk and there are no guarantees so, while 401K's are awesome for some people who invest the time and energy over time to become well-informed and experienced investors, it is a terrible idea for most people.

I can't tell you how many people I worked with or know who sold "low" and bought "high" and lost 50% or more of their 401K.

I think growing up on a farm and putting myself through college with Wheat and Beef cattle helped me deal with the volatility and risk in the stock market. My friends from Suburbia did well with the "rising tide lifts all boats" but, were totally unprepared for a market with investment challenges. Their risk tolerances were also very low which meant they sold low and only bought high when the market was strong.

I also had city folk buy property next to mine to show this hick how it's done since I didn't know the way modern financial markets worked. Bankruptcy was frequently the end result because you can't buy cows at the top of the market on leverage and then sell them cheaply in the Fall when markets are down. Then there were the passing fads like Ostriches, Emu, and others which to me was more of a Ponzi scheme than anything, great if you can sell a breeding pair of Ostriches for $50K but, after all the gullible city folk that are going to make their fortune, who do you sell too? I don't know about you but, I don't see Ostrich omelets or Ostrich egg art where I live though, I guess Ostrich egg art still has some appeal in certain markets like Turquois Jewelry.

 

[Cahaba Valley Farm]

I'm not bragging so percentages and dollar values are intentionally omitted but, I made more during the ~2 years of COVID than I did during the previous Presidental period with some stop losses on the end of his term. Contrarian investments to the current president worked out well for me and my 401K.

Oh you're not? Gee you could of fooled me.

 

[Sid Post]

And many different theories as to what that will be. Some thought the C19 "vax" was the mark of the beast because many people had to take it or lose their job.

Vaccination policies like face mask policies were a largely political solution and a control issue.

While I didn't believe in the crackpot Social Media theories about the Bill Gates mind control, Mark of the Beast, etc. theories, there were real risks for some population groups that were totally suppressed in the name of groupthink and management by politics instead of good science and medicine.

A "chin diaper" was not effective at stopping COVID but, heaven forbid someone play fetch with their dog in a field without a mask.

My argument was that if I can smell your bad breath or a fart in an elevator, I am not being protected from someone spreading COVID. Later this was changed to protect others from coughs by people who won't cover their mouths! Now it is generally accepted that masks basically didn't do much to stop the spread of COVID.

I did not get COVID so, I did get the vaccinations. If I had natural immunity from a COVID infection, why in the world would I take an emergency use authorization vaccine?

Then there was the issue of giving the vaccine to population groups who didn't benefit from it with the risk of heart health impacts. I'm sorry, most grade school-age children were not at the same risk as seniors in a nursing home!

It's not our fault certain people in positions of power thought the public was too dumb to discriminate why some population groups were at higher risk than others. Pretty insulting actually.

 

[drumminj]

There are millions of retirees that are not able to retire now because of the change in market cycle. There is no "magic" investment profiles that can change that.

I know I'm many pages behind so maybe this has been addressed, but I'd challenge this statement as there are more "stable" investment strategies that don't have as much volatility. Checkout portfoliocharts dot com for a good overview and a bunch of historical data.

(Personally, I roughly follow the Permanent Portfolio)