New Tractor Sales Are Declining

[lman]

We are producing as much oil as 2019.

STEO

“U.S. crude oil production in our forecast averages 11.7 million b/d in 2022 and 12.4 million b/d in 2023, which would surpass the record high set in 2019.”

Apparently not enough, the price is double what it was then.

 

[ArlyA]

Most of the wells being drilled here in Colorado are directional, we have 2 on our pad that are going 1 mile in each direction. The other 4 wells that we receive a royalty from are situated in an adjoining section but extend into our section. Very common in Colorado.

I'd guess there is some financial reason they'd do that there.

 

[sd455dan]

Probably not. In the Bakken formation, they drill horizontally because that rock formation is very shallow, like in the feet. So they must drill into it horizontally to extract any oil. Most places that is not the case. Compnaies will only do it because they have to.

Yes but some in southern Wyoming /North Eastern Colorado are fairly deep like the Niobrara and Codell formations which
are ~ 5500-8500 feet and also drilled horizontally and can cross a full section .

 

[jyoutz]

Apparently not enough, the price is double what it was then.

Price is increased because of worldwide shortage driving up prices, not because the US is producing less crude oil. There is also a refinery capacity issue and the fact that we are exporting fuel. There are plenty of factors but US crude production reduction isn’t one of those factors. Crude oil isn’t fuel.

 

[ArlyA]

Yes but some in southern Wyoming /North Eastern Colorado are fairly deep like the NIOBRARA formation which is between 5500-8500 feet and also drilled horizontally and can cross a full section of (640 acres) .

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ABSTRACT​

The Bakken Formation (Devonian and Mississippian) of North Dakota consists of upper and lower, black, organic-rich shales separated by a calcareous siltstone middle member. The formation is a relatively thin unit—maximum thickness 145 ft (44.2 m)—with the lower shale attaining a maximum thickness of 50 ft (15.2 m), and the upper shale a maximum thickness of 23 ft (7 m). The shales are hard, siliceous, pyritic, fissile, and noncalcareous. They contain abundant conodonts and tasmanites and have planar laminations accented by pyrite. The upper and lower shales were apparently deposited in an offshore, marine, anoxic environment where anoxic conditions may have been caused by a stratified water column resulting from restricted circulation. Organic matter in the black shales was derived mostly from planktonic algae.
Organic-carbon measurements revealed the Bakken shales to be very organic-rich (average of 11.33 wt. % of organic carbon), and visual kerogen typing revealed this organic matter to be predominantly an amorphous type that is inferred to be sapropelic. The onset of hydrocarbon generation was determined to occur at an average depth of 9,000 ft (2.74 km) by interpreting plots of geochemical parameters with depth (e.g., ratios of hydrocarbon to nonhydrocarbon, saturated hydrocarbon to organic carbon, pyrolytic hydrocarbon to organic carbon, and the pyrolysis production index). Hydrocarbon content and thermal kerogen breakdown increase greatly in the Bakken shales where they are buried at depths greater than 9,000 ft (2.74 km). The effective source area of the Bakken, as determined by maps of the above geochemical parameters, lies mostly in McKenzie, Williams, Dunn, and Billings Counties. Oil generation was probably initiated in the Bakken about 75 Ma (Late Cretaceous) at a temperature of about 100°C (212°F), with initial expulsion of oil from the Bakken probably occurring 70 Ma (Late Cretaceous). The amount of oil generated by the Bakken in North Dakota, as calculated from pyrolysis data, is 92.3 billion bbl. If only 10% of this oil was actually expelled from the shales, it could easily account for the 3 billion bbl of known type II oil reserves in the Williston basin. (This paper is a summary of work done for an M.S. thesis at the University of North Dakota).

 

[Torvy]

It's a little more complicated then that. For example some businesses have lower overhead which give them cost advantages over competitors that have higher overhead. Those savings are at times passed onto the customer depending on the sales and market strategy that the business is using to win market share. In other words, the market price is a range rather than a fixed number.

We were talking macro, not micro.

 

[sd455dan]

• Cite
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ABSTRACT​

The Bakken Formation (Devonian and Mississippian) of North Dakota consists of upper and lower, black, organic-rich shales separated by a calcareous siltstone middle member. The formation is a relatively thin unit—maximum thickness 145 ft (44.2 m)—with the lower shale attaining a maximum thickness of 50 ft (15.2 m), and the upper shale a maximum thickness of 23 ft (7 m). The shales are hard, siliceous, pyritic, fissile, and noncalcareous. They contain abundant conodonts and tasmanites and have planar laminations accented by pyrite. The upper and lower shales were apparently deposited in an offshore, marine, anoxic environment where anoxic conditions may have been caused by a stratified water column resulting from restricted circulation. Organic matter in the black shales was derived mostly from planktonic algae.
Organic-carbon measurements revealed the Bakken shales to be very organic-rich (average of 11.33 wt. % of organic carbon), and visual kerogen typing revealed this organic matter to be predominantly an amorphous type that is inferred to be sapropelic. The onset of hydrocarbon generation was determined to occur at an average depth of 9,000 ft (2.74 km) by interpreting plots of geochemical parameters with depth (e.g., ratios of hydrocarbon to nonhydrocarbon, saturated hydrocarbon to organic carbon, pyrolytic hydrocarbon to organic carbon, and the pyrolysis production index). Hydrocarbon content and thermal kerogen breakdown increase greatly in the Bakken shales where they are buried at depths greater than 9,000 ft (2.74 km). The effective source area of the Bakken, as determined by maps of the above geochemical parameters, lies mostly in McKenzie, Williams, Dunn, and Billings Counties. Oil generation was probably initiated in the Bakken about 75 Ma (Late Cretaceous) at a temperature of about 100°C (212°F), with initial expulsion of oil from the Bakken probably occurring 70 Ma (Late Cretaceous). The amount of oil generated by the Bakken in North Dakota, as calculated from pyrolysis data, is 92.3 billion bbl. If only 10% of this oil was actually expelled from the shales, it could easily account for the 3 billion bbl of known type II oil reserves in the Williston basin. (This paper is a summary of work done for an M.S. thesis at the University of North Dakota).

"In the Bakken formation, they drill horizontally because that rock formation is very shallow, like in the feet..."

I was responding to that quote.

And completely misread what you were actually saying in that quote....

I get it now... Sorry about that.



A long, Long, Long time ago I worked on a geophysical oil and gas exploration crew, but The entire exploration industry collapsed going into 1985
We recorded raw data in Colorado, Wyoming, Utah, and both of the Dakotas.

 

[Deleted member 371759]

Inflation devouring income. Pretty easy to put the puzzle pieces together.

 

[ArlyA]

"In the Bakken formation, they drill horizontally because that rock formation is very shallow, like in the feet..."

I was responding to that quote.

And completely misread what you were actually saying in that quote....

I get it now... Sorry about that.



A long, Long, Long time ago I worked on a geophysical oil and gas exploration crew, but The entire exploration industry collapsed going into 1985
We recorded raw data in Colorado, Wyoming, Utah, and both of the Dakotas.

This is getting sooooooo far off of tractor sales? But how oil is produced and its geology is so, so interesting. I worked in the Powder basin, Minnelusa and many buddies in the Williston formations.

 

[Torvy]

This is getting sooooooo far off of tractor sales? But how oil is produced and its geology is so, so interesting. I worked in the Powder basin, Minnelusa and many buddies in the Williston formations.

Last time I checked, most tractors run on oil byproducts. You're good.