New Tractor Sales Are Declining

[jyoutz]

Right, so is Rig Count UP? or is it DOWN?

In every instance it seems that one group of reporters says one thing while another slants it differently.

How can voters to make intelligent decisions when faced with slanted, biased news reporting?

And how to tell one from another?

US Oil Rig Count (Weekly) - United States - Historical Data…

View weekly updates and historical trends for US Oil Rig Count. from United States. Source: Baker Hughes. Track economic data with YCharts analytics.

ycharts.com

 

[sd455dan]

Right, so is Rig Count UP? or is it DOWN?

In every instance it seems that one group of reporters says one thing while another slants it differently.

How can voters to make intelligent decisions when faced with slanted, biased news reporting?

And how to tell one from another?

Baker Hughes numbers (one of the largest Industrial Oil service companies)
from Tradingeconomics

Baker Hughes Crude Oil Rigs

Crude Oil Rigs in the United States decreased to 409 in January 9 from 412 in the previous week. This page provides - United States Crude Oil Rigs- actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

tradingeconomics.com

These are crude oil drill rigs specifically, but a lot of oil wells will also produce natural gas and condensate

ps. I noticed our local JD dealer actually has a fairly decent stock of tractors.

For most of the summer all they had was a few 80HP + and small one series machines.

 

[MinnesotaEric]

The majority of presidents in my lifetime did not get my vote. The important thing is is that I have been casting my vote for over half a century. Its about time rural America woke up and did the same. 40% voter turn out for midterms and 60% for presidential is apathetic at best. We've seen what happens when we let metropolitain America choose our leaders. Please get out and vote today.

Tripped over this searching for voter participation by state. This is from Nov. or 2020.

States with the highest voter turnout in 2020​

1. Minnesota: 80%
2. Colorado: 76.4%
3. Maine: 76.3%
4. Wisconsin: 75.8%
5. Washington: 75.7%
6. Oregon & New Hampshire: 75.5% (tie)
7. Michigan: 73.9%
8. Iowa: 73.2%
9. Montana: 73.1%
10. Virginia: 73%

States with the lowest voter turnout in 2020​

1. Oklahoma: 55%
2. Arkansas: 56.1%
3. Hawaii: 57.5%
4. West Virginia: 57.6%
5. Tennessee: 59.8%
6. Mississippi: 60.2%
7. Texas: 60.4%
8. New Mexico: 61.3%
9. New York: 63.6%
10. Alabama: 63.1%

Source: The U.S. Elections Project

 

[5030]

Do keep on mind that not every well drilled will be a producer and the average cost to drill one, dry or marginal and not economically feasible to extract from runs just over a million bucks. That is a straight hole and not directional drilling which is even more and at least in this state, a dry hole or marginally producing well has to be plugged and the ground remediated.

Unlike Titusville PA, you don't drive a wooden stake in the ground to get crude.

 

[rScotty]

Right, so is Rig Count UP? or is it DOWN?

In every instance it seems that one group of reporters says one thing while another slants it differently.

How can voters to make intelligent decisions when faced with slanted, biased news reporting?

And how to tell one from another?

By having boots on the ground and talking to trusted sources. The media is completely irresponsible. Journalism is dead replaced by propaganda, manipulation and advertising.

I only pose the question; and I do that because I don't know the answer.

My boots don't cover enough ground, and I don't know how to tell trusted sources from others.

But I do know some places not to expect the truth. I certainly don't expect truth from sources or publications within an industry. So I know not to trust the oil industry to publish the truth about what they are doing or the number of their rigs ...only their skewed version of it.

And the same goes for journalists and news sources who accept advertising..... unfortunately for us all.

So the question remains, and now there is another: "If it is truth we are after, who pays the bills?"

rScotty

BTW, this one IS my President. So were the last dozen or so. That doesn't make them always right. They get to make the same amount of mistakes that I do.
One such mistake is the most recent three have permitted "Quantitative Easing" as a financial policy.
That's as good an example as any of a policy that works short term and is ultimately proving to be a mistake.

 

[lman]

US Oil Rig Count (Weekly) - United States - Historical Data…

View weekly updates and historical trends for US Oil Rig Count. from United States. Source: Baker Hughes. Track economic data with YCharts analytics.

ycharts.com

It looks like we are still down considerably contrary to reports that I've heard. Maybe in a couple of years we'll be back there.

 

[Cahaba Valley Farm]

So the question remains, and now there is another: "If it is truth we are after, who pays the bills?"

I really like that. Think I will add it to my quotes on here.

But I do know some places not to expect the truth. I certainly don't expect truth from sources or publications within an industry. So I know not to trust the oil industry to publish the truth about what they are doing or the number of their rigs ...only their skewed version of it.

I would caution you against taking this position as I have found that industry trade magazines and publications are often more reliable than any outside coverage of the industry.

 

[rScotty]

I really like that. Think I will add it to my quotes on here.

I would caution you against taking this position as I have found that industry trade magazines and publications are often more reliable than any outside coverage of the industry.

I am cautious. When I worked in industry I had to be. It's part of the job. When I would read industry trade magazines - and I still get a pile of them - I look first to see if the particular trade represented or their main advertisers would have anything to gain by the views presented in an article. Then I read with that filter in place.

Everyone I know who reads those journals and has to act on the information also uses a heavy industrial BS filter.
rScotty

 

[sd455dan]

I am cautious. When I worked in industry I had to be. It's part of the job. When I would read industry trade magazines - and I still get a pile of them - I look first to see if the particular trade represented or their main advertisers would have anything to gain by the views presented in an article. Then I read with that filter in place.

Everyone I know who reads those journals and has to act on the information also uses a heavy industrial BS filter.
rScotty

Maybe I should have added oil FIELD services company. If they aren't the boots on the ground as far as how many rigs are actually active and drilling, not sure who would be.

Some states, and if some want to get into the details you can go to their site and check each wells status, its the Law in some states as well for public access although some hold the information for 2 months or more before it is listed.

here is a list of one states well status codes

https://cogcc.state.co.us/documents/about/COGIS_Help/Status_Codes.pdf

 

[jyoutz]

It looks like we are still down considerably contrary to reports that I've heard. Maybe in a couple of years we'll be back there.
View attachment 769636

The quantity of oil produced is more important than the number of rigs. And 2022 is near the all time high.

 

[jyoutz]

I only pose the question; and I do that because I don't know the answer.

My boots don't cover enough ground, and I don't know how to tell trusted sources from others.

But I do know some places not to expect the truth. I certainly don't expect truth from sources or publications within an industry. So I know not to trust the oil industry to publish the truth about what they are doing or the number of their rigs ...only their skewed version of it.

And the same goes for journalists and news sources who accept advertising..... unfortunately for us all.

So the question remains, and now there is another: "If it is truth we are after, who pays the bills?"

rScotty

BTW, this one IS my President. So were the last dozen or so. That doesn't make them always right. They get to make the same amount of mistakes that I do.
One such mistake is the most recent three have permitted "Quantitative Easing" as a financial policy.
That's as good an example as any of a policy that works short term and is ultimately proving to be a mistake.

eia.gov keeps the official statistics for energy production in the US.

 

[lman]

The quantity of oil produced is more important than the number of rigs. And 2022 is near the all time high.

It would be even better if we had as many rigs pumping as we had in 2019.

 

[Torvy]

One such mistake is the most recent three have permitted "Quantitative Easing" as a financial policy.
That's as good an example as any of a policy that works short term and is ultimately proving to be a mistake.

To be clear, Quantitative Easing is a monetary policy enacted by a central bank, in our case, the Fed. Presidents appoint individual members for 14 year terms. No modern president has much to say about QE either way. The Fed is independent. President appoints, but that ends his power, other than empty words.

Congress and the President handle fiscal policy. Together, monetary and fiscal policy adjust the money supply. When money supply is too high, we get inflation. When it is too low, we get deflation. The biggest component of fiscal policy is government spending. More spending equals bigger money supply.

QE is a small factor to our current problem.

 

[ArlyA]

Having spent many years in the energy business, I will added. Its about the price. If the price or its furtur outlook looks good, companies will be spending $$$ to add wells or keep old one ones going. Its that simple.

 

[Torvy]

Having spent many years in the energy business, I will added. Its about the price. If the price or its furtur outlook looks good, companies will be spending $$$ to add wells or keep old one ones going. Its that simple.

So many people think they (or any business) sets the price. The market ultimately sets the price. In other words, supply and demand.

 

[zoedog2012]

It would be even better if we had as many rigs pumping as we had in 2019.

Does the fact that many more well being drilled are horizontal , meaning less vertical wells affect the rig count?

 

[ArlyA]

Does the fact that many more well being drilled are horizontal , meaning less vertical wells affect the rig count?

Probably not. In the Bakken formation, they drill horizontally because that rock formation is very shallow, like in the feet. So they must drill into it horizontally to extract any oil. Most places that is not the case. Compnaies will only do it because they have to.

 

[jyoutz]

It would be even better if we had as many rigs pumping as we had in 2019.

We are producing as much oil as 2019.

STEO

“U.S. crude oil production in our forecast averages 11.7 million b/d in 2022 and 12.4 million b/d in 2023, which would surpass the record high set in 2019.”

 

[Cahaba Valley Farm]

So many people think they (or any business) sets the price. The market ultimately sets the price. In other words, supply and demand.

It's a little more complicated then that. For example some businesses have lower overhead which give them cost advantages over competitors that have higher overhead. Those savings are at times passed onto the customer depending on the sales and market strategy that the business is using to win market share. In other words, the market price is a range rather than a fixed number.

 

[zoedog2012]

Probably not. In the Bakken formation, they drill horizontally because that rock formation is very shallow, like in the feet. So they must drill into it horizontally to extract any oil. Most places that is not the case. Compnaies will only do it because they have to.

Most of the wells being drilled here in Colorado are directional, we have 2 on our pad that are going 1 mile in each direction. The other 4 wells that we receive a royalty from are situated in an adjoining section but extend into our section. Very common in Colorado.