Market Watch

[Milo]

Status of the truck industry, this is just one of many out there, but there is a slow down in sales of most pick ups and other high end vehicles. For more and more people, when it comes time for a new vehicle and they look at their financial situation, that $22K-$32K Kia, Toyota Corolla, Subaru Crosstrek, etc., along with a little utility trailer just make more sense. And if they just have to have a truck more are considering a Canyon/Colorado or Ranger over the more expensive full size trucks.

 

[Torvy]

This why we listen to Economists about economic issues.

To paraphrase medical terms, the economy has an aggressive form of stage 3 cancer. The 'patient' opted for a procedure that doctors warned would make things worse. Like many medical patients, some indicators will show improvement before they get worse. Cancer going away without real treatment would take a real miracle.

The point here is that the economy needs help that will not come. An amateur can look at massaged info for any hope for it to get better, but they would be deluding themselves.

 

[2manyrocks]

Malpractice at its finest.

 

[CloverKnollFarms]

Debt and defaults on the rise.

So... Is that a positive trend or negative?

If things are so great, why would debt and repo's be on the rise?

I'm doing very well. However, my status doesn't translate into the general state of the economy. I'm fortunate to be a high earner who always lived like a low wage worker. I've been debt free since I was like 35 years of age and invested more than than average US wage each year.

This is not how most are living.

 

[newbury]

Inflation is down. That term means we went from 9% inflation to 3.1%….


It means the RATE of increase is down, but increases will continue. Also still above the Fed target. Prices will not fall. The inflation we experienced, is the new baseline. We would need a DEFLATIONARY cycle to reduce prices, but you probably wouldn’t like how that happens.

We had a slight deflationary economy in 2008, time to buy land and goods that last a long time.
Many people know how to buy at low prices and sell at high prices. I picked up a lot of pallet racking at dirt cheap prices.
There is a strong chance that we will see a cycle like that again. It might be as bad as 1873 to 1879.

 

[Hay Dude]

No, I think it is a case of only seeing the forest that is around you. I've no doubt what you see is real to you.

My guess is that the TBNers who are negative on the economy live in an area where the economy is down. The newscasters emphasize the negative, but It isn't that way everywhere.

Also, a lot of TBNers are older and either on or approaching a fixed income. Many on this forum have moved or are looking to move to a more rural area with lower expenses. That shapes the viewpoint here. As a group we TBNers tend to do things ourselves instead of using our income to pay someone else to do the work....that's fine individually, but it doesn't help grow an economy.

Of course there is inflation. There always is. It's a part of the economy. Be glad it isn't half so bad as it was in the 70s and 80s. Inflation then didn't make it hard to get a house loan; it made it impossible. Educational loans hadn't even been invented.

rScotty

Oh heck no! I live in a prosperous area. I‘m more concerned about areas of the country more hard hit than mine and people falling out of the middle class because they are choosing whether to eat or pay their mortgage.

I will not fall on my knees and be thankful its not as bad as the Jimmy Carter era inflation that destroyed billions in American wealth, had us in gas lines, and told us we were “running out of oil”.
We should have learned, but we don’t and here we are again.

 

[Torvy]

Debt and defaults on the rise.

So... Is that a positive trend or negative?

That reminds me of a real puzzle that can get different people to see the same info and come to the opposite conclusions.

If the number of people on public assistance goes down, one side sees it as improvement as people are better able to care for themselves. The other side sees it as a failure as fewer people are getting needed assistance. The truth is almost always somewhere between the two points.

 

[edgarrian]

My point is that the economy right now is not bad everywhere in our country. It's not even bad for a lot of middle class working TBNers. I know it is bad for some, but it's not that way everywhere; not all doom and gloom. If nothing else, look at sales of houses and new tractors - people making those purchases obviously have confidence in the future. I'm going to bet on them.

As for your thoughts on the large amount of money being put into the system and the policy restrictions - those things bother me too. Lots. I don't see how pushing that much more debt-based money into the system is healthy, but I keep reminding myself that financial predictions have a way of being wrong.

I sometimes wonder if that much excess debt can can be removed in the form of completed giant projects? Rebuild the coastal lands, refill the aquifers, conquer cancer, mine the asteroids??? How much of our current debt could we retire if we did any of those? Or does it work that way? I think it does.....

The policy restrictions bother me more. Personal freedom will survive, but I worry that policy restrictions will reduce the innovation we need in order to do those big projects. And if we can't do the projects, the debt problem returns.

rScotty

Debt isn't forgiven b/c the gov decides to complete giant projects which in turn would add more debt. Personnel freedom is being eroded. We are being monitored all the time. We now have FISA courts which was brought on by the patriot act. All these things lead to abuse of power. Policy will get worst. Thats an absolute. That will translate into less freedom. Policy and freedom are attached. They can't retire our debt. We sell our debt to other counrties. I doubt they will allow it to be retired. Although how nice would that be. One would assume that would trickle down to us as well. If it did go that way and say china forgave our debt since they own the most. How do you think our country would be run?

You are right its not bad every where. Its not that bad here in IN as well but layoffs are being announced every week by major companies. GM, Ford, trucking, and so on. You add in repos and debt on the rise. A government that doesn't understand budgeting. Then at some point we will see another bad recession or depression. Unforutuanetly its inevetable. Greed always goes there. Unfortunately the tax payer is always on the hook to make sure soft landings are implemented. Is a recession on the horizon. Possibly. History says it is. We haven't repeated the depression yet. Which in all honesty im surprised.

 

[Hay Dude]

From most everything I read about Indiana, its a fiscally responsible, well governed state thats generally attractive to industry and investment.

 

[jyoutz]

Inflation is down? From what? And job market is not great. Sure, stats can be twisted to say it is performing, but it is still in recovery from COVID. And I live in Florida that has fared better than most areas of the country

I will be getting a bump in pay at my work, but it won’t cover the increase in my health insurance, let alone everything else that has gone up.

You can keep spewing your hot air, but you are wrong.

Every employer in my area is hiring and most aren’t getting enough applicants. The job market is red hot if someone has relevant skills and/or education. I hear this throughout the region, not just in my state.