Investments strategy with new administration?

[tradosaurus]

Daughter just had her job rescinded with the Forest Service. Via eMail.

Fed gov't hiring freeze

 

[tradosaurus]

Things just turned very weird.

ALL federal grants are suspended. Health care, transportation, education, food, water, safety, research, military support, FEMA disaster recovery, everything. Simply put, this can crash the economy. Musk declared that was his intention, maybe we should have listened.

https://archive.ph/XOcr9

And:
Here's a discussion that includes people who learned they instantly don't have a salary.

Jyoutz, got a backup plan? Ultrarunner? Is anybody here a farmer? Or a veteran?

Sure glad I'm retired. Used to make my living tracing the use of Federal funds on large public works projects to verify they were applied as intended.

Time to trim the fat!

 

[jyoutz]

Daughter just had her job rescinded with the Forest Service. Via eMail.

I know this is happening. New hires are being told that they don’t have a job. It’s really sad for these young graduates. Especially since there’s so much work to be done with hazardous fuels reduction in our National Forests.

 

[riptides]

I know this is happening. New hires are being told that they don’t have a job. It’s really sad for these young graduates. Especially since there’s so much work to be done with hazardous fuels reduction in our National Forests.

It appears to be across the board, as her backup seasonal job, held for many years, all got pulled too.

 

[jyoutz]

It appears to be across the board, as her backup seasonal job, held for many years, all got pulled too.

Yep, no seasonals will be hired this year. I would advise her to look at jobs with State Forestry organizations.

 

[riptides]

Yep, no seasonals will be hired this year. I would advise her to look at jobs with State Forestry organizations.

Yep. Advised everyone I know to look at local and state positions.

 

[Bearsixty7]

Another data set I look at is how does a particular property compare for List price vs sale price vs CAD Value. CAD being the Central Appraisal District which values "Market Value" for use in calculating property taxes.

This is from one neighborhood I'm watching:
5 Houses listed for sale from $475K to $580K.
The difference between the CAD Value and Asking price is from $127K to $252K with the CAD being that much higher than the owners are trying to sell their houses for.

Here is a specific example:
2024 CAD Value $732K vs Asking $519K vs Sold Price: $480K The house was on the market for over 100 days and sold for $252,680 LESS than the Central Appraisal District Market Value. Houses in this particular neighborhood are greatly over valued by the CAD.
There are many such examples.

Of course! but will we see a property tax rebate?? NO!

I think houses have been overvalued by CAD for a few years now, my 1 acre alone is appraised at $200k! It was about $30K for years.

Hopefully the actual value doesn't drop much in the next 18 months as that's about when we plan to sell and move.

 

[ultrarunner]

The thousand square foot house for $250k is advertised as a building lot, meaning the house is likely a tear down. The other house has been gutted and on a smaller lot than my house and barn. My original comment about $1M houses was focused on livable houses. $1M will buy a pretty nice place in many other areas. It’s no surprise that building is dead in the SF Bay Area.

There are more but my first single family home was the least expensive on the MLS when I bought it just before a scheduled condemnation hearing… I moved in and a week later it was like a new place and hearing cancelled.

There are plenty of livable homes way under a million…

I’ve never paid a million for a home with acreage and in good condition…

 

[ultrarunner]

Realtor is interesting when you look at the Property History. That last property was on the market for $680K in May 2020 and then relisted in Nov 2024 for $288K

Yep… I can show homes down 25-30% that I know and commercial down as much as 75-80% with vacant land way down.

Here is a home I toured that just sold…

400k is realistic for a move in 3 bedroom 1000 square feet home around me…

Generally with elevation comes higher prices… but totally redone with views still under a million…

https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/8933-D-St_Oakland_CA_94621_M28164-15291?cid=soc_shares_fs_pdp

 

[gsganzer]

Yep… I can show homes down 25-30% that I know and commercial down as much as 75-80% with vacant land way down.

Here is a home I toured that just sold…

https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/8933-D-St_Oakland_CA_94621_M28164-15291?cid=soc_shares_fs_pdp

I was in San Jose a few weeks ago and I was surprised at all the vacant commercial properties. There were still lots of big-name companies there, Samsung, Cisco, etc., but I sensed things weren't as bustling as they once were. Part of that might be that many employees are still working remote.

I think some other parts of the country have started popping up as tech communities. I saw a story about areas in the Midwest courting these industries, with affordable housing, fun lifestyles etc. I don't think they can ever match the weather, activity and beauty of California. But all those charms aren't worth a lick, if everyone living there is house-poor and struggling to have a life.