Investments strategy with new administration?

[ultrarunner]

Also when a 1000 square foot box sells for $1M+. People can go elsewhere and buy a nice estate for those prices.

1000 square foot on MLS 250k

https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/8825-D-St_Oakland_CA_94621_M28223-77842?cid=soc_shares_fs_ldp

https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/5600-Merriewood-Dr_Oakland_CA_94611_M11834-44680?cid=soc_shares_fs_ldp

7 bedroom, 2700 square feet

https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/863-35th-St_Oakland_CA_94608_M28064-88029?cid=soc_shares_fs_ldp

 

[ultrarunner]

Not in my experience, and, I suspect for many fire and weather (e.g. hurricane and flood) at risk properties.

I would bet strongly on insurance becoming much more expensive given recent events, even without any bets on the future being more variable than the past, especially in California and Florida.

Holding costs for land aren't usually zero, though in the right location, they can certainly be income streams. Growing up, I saw crop land prices go up and then go down as farm sizes expanded and small acreage was no longer economic to farm. There are lots of variables, and, unfortunately many of them not under the speculator's control. What would happen if building permits went up 10x, or insurance 10X, or if the whole state was taxed to pay for the remediation of some poorly constructed cities, or the home mortgage deduction ended completely? Just sayin'...

All the best,

Peter

Or the jurisdiction imposes an extra 6k annual tax on vacant property in addition to property tax.

 

[jyoutz]

1000 square foot on MLS 250k

https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/8825-D-St_Oakland_CA_94621_M28223-77842?cid=soc_shares_fs_ldp

https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/5600-Merriewood-Dr_Oakland_CA_94611_M11834-44680?cid=soc_shares_fs_ldp

7 bedroom, 2700 square feet

https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/863-35th-St_Oakland_CA_94608_M28064-88029?cid=soc_shares_fs_ldp

The thousand square foot house for $250k is advertised as a building lot, meaning the house is likely a tear down. The other house has been gutted and on a smaller lot than my house and barn. My original comment about $1M houses was focused on livable houses. $1M will buy a pretty nice place in many other areas. It’s no surprise that building is dead in the SF Bay Area.

 

[California]

Things just turned very weird.

ALL federal grants are suspended. Health care, transportation, education, food, water, safety, research, military support, FEMA disaster recovery, everything. Simply put, this can crash the economy. Musk declared that was his intention, maybe we should have listened.

https://archive.ph/XOcr9

And:
Here's a discussion that includes people who learned they instantly don't have a salary.

Jyoutz, got a backup plan? Ultrarunner? Is anybody here a farmer? Or a veteran?

Sure glad I'm retired. Used to make my living tracing the use of Federal funds on large public works projects to verify they were applied as intended.

 

[jyoutz]

Things just turned very weird.

ALL federal grants are suspended. Health care, transportation, education, food, water, safety, research, military support, FEMA disaster recovery, everything. Simply put, this can crash the economy. Musk declared that was his intention, maybe we should have listened.

https://archive.ph/XOcr9

And:
Here's a discussion that includes people who learned they instantly don't have a salary.

Jyoutz, got a backup plan? Ultrarunner? Is anybody here a farmer? Or a veteran?

Sure glad I'm retired. Used to make my living tracing the use of Federal funds on large public works projects to verify they were applied as intended.

I’ve been eligible to retire for a couple of years now so I don’t need a backup plan. But I’m not really concerned about myself or my position. There are 9 agency regions in the U.S. and only 8 others who manage the Regional program that I do. It’s doubtful that the position would be cut. What’s more likely is we will be tasked with doing even more management without filling vacancies and people will burn out. For the most part, both parties have always liked the Forest Service and USDA in general and have treated us ok. I feel bad for the young people just getting started in their careers and they are the reasons why I haven’t retired. I enjoy mentoring them.

 

[two_bit_score]

They are still building almost everywhere they can around here. We're N.E. of Dallas and no matter where I drive within 30 miles, new home and apartment construction is still going crazy. Yes sales have cooled off some, but stuff is still selling, maybe not above asking in 3 days like it was, but still selling at or above asking in 20-45 days from what I have seen/heard.

From the data I'm seeing that is not surprising. Apartment construction projects might be in process because the single home market is suffering.

As for single family residential right now it's cheaper to rent a house than to buy one. In 75069 McKinney for example data says the home inventory is 34% higher this year than it was last year. Some areas in Dallas are 89% higher YoY. People who can't afford to buy are seeking apartments?
The active home listings in Texas and Florida are 261,000 which is 207% higher than in the Northeast which covers 9 states.
According to the data domestic migration was toward southern states and spiked during Covid but it's below average now.
Commercial projects and single home sales for cash are what is propping up the market right now. The data suggests the single home market is suffering and will likely get worse before it gets better.

 

[two_bit_score]

1000 square foot on MLS 250k

https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/8825-D-St_Oakland_CA_94621_M28223-77842?cid=soc_shares_fs_ldp

https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/5600-Merriewood-Dr_Oakland_CA_94611_M11834-44680?cid=soc_shares_fs_ldp

7 bedroom, 2700 square feet

https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/863-35th-St_Oakland_CA_94608_M28064-88029?cid=soc_shares_fs_ldp

Realtor is interesting when you look at the Property History. That last property was on the market for $680K in May 2020 and then relisted in Nov 2024 for $288K

 

[two_bit_score]

Another data set I look at is how does a particular property compare for List price vs sale price vs CAD Value. CAD being the Central Appraisal District which values "Market Value" for use in calculating property taxes.

This is from one neighborhood I'm watching:
5 Houses listed for sale from $475K to $580K.
The difference between the CAD Value and Asking price is from $127K to $252K with the CAD being that much higher than the owners are trying to sell their houses for.

Here is a specific example:
2024 CAD Value $732K vs Asking $519K vs Sold Price: $480K The house was on the market for over 100 days and sold for $252,680 LESS than the Central Appraisal District Market Value. Houses in this particular neighborhood are greatly over valued by the CAD.
There are many such examples.

 

[riptides]

... I feel bad for the young people just getting started in their careers and they are the reasons why I haven’t retired. I enjoy mentoring them.

Daughter just had her job rescinded with the Forest Service. Via eMail.

 

[Lineman North Florida]

Not in my experience, and, I suspect for many fire and weather (e.g. hurricane and flood) at risk properties.

I would bet strongly on insurance becoming much more expensive given recent events, even without any bets on the future being more variable than the past, especially in California and Florida.

Holding costs for land aren't usually zero, though in the right location, they can certainly be income streams. Growing up, I saw crop land prices go up and then go down as farm sizes expanded and small acreage was no longer economic to farm. There are lots of variables, and, unfortunately many of them not under the speculator's control. What would happen if building permits went up 10x, or insurance 10X, or if the whole state was taxed to pay for the remediation of some poorly constructed cities, or the home mortgage deduction ended completely? Just sayin'...

All the best,

Peter

While I don't own land in California (thank goodness ) I do own land in Florida and raw land is a good investment here, for some reason people keep wanting to come here and they roll in with pockets overflowing with money ready to buy what they consider a farm usually about 5 acres hurricanes and all. Property that we consider as hunting land and really not something worthy of building on for some reason sells to these types of people for outrageous prices and after about 50 loads of fill dirt they have themselves a little knoll to build a house on, everybody's dream is different, over near the coast where my hunting camp is a 2-3 acre parcel of raw land sells for about 50-75k, those same parcels were listed for 9k 15 years ago and were slowly sold off, I kick myself for not buying more years ago but hindsight is 20/20.